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MIZ

Missouri 0 at Alabama 34

ALA
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.9ALA 82.5%Graham Nicholson 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 6 · Q2 4:38
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Q2 4:38 · Graham Nicholson 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior+21.8Home team on offense+5.5Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor+1.8Blowout margin−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:38: Graham Nicholson 39 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +2.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:27: Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the MIZ 31 — ALA win probability +2.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:54: Jam Miller run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +6.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:33: Jalen Milroe run for 9 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +6.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:28: Jam Miller run for 11 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +2.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:53MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50ALA 4th & 9 at MIZ 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29MIZ 4th & 5 at MIZ 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:45ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:31MIZ 4th & 4 at ALA 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:35ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:58MIZ 4th & 6 at ALA 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:39ALA 4th & 22 at ALA 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:46MIZ 4th & 7 at ALA 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:38ALA 4th & 19 at MIZ 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00MIZ 4th & 8 at ALA 41, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    12.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:06ALA 4th & 20 at ALA 17, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:52MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 31, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:05ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 48, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:40MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 27, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:19MIZ 4th & 1 at ALA 1, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 1:54ALA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:33ALA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:28ALA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:06ALA Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4415% → 16%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for no gain to the MIZ 25Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
84.7%
Brady Cook sacked by Jihaad Campbell for a loss of 8 yards to the MIZ 17Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+13
84.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 13 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
84.4%
Luke Bauer punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:4984% → 84%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
84.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 6 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
84.2%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+15
84.2%
Missouri Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
84.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 4 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+21
84.1%
Kendrick Law run for 21 yds to the MIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
84.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 3 yds to the MIZ 27Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
84.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 2 yds to the MIZ 25Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-4
83.7%
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 29Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
83.5%
Graham Nicholson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1416% → 16%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
83.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
83.4%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Joshua ManningSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
83.6%
Luke Bauer punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Mbakwe at the ALA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3683% → 83%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
83.1%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
83.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
82.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
82.6%
James Burnip punt for 54 yds, downed at the MIZ 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:5917% → 18%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
83.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for no gain to the MIZ 19Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
82.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 3 yds to the MIZ 22Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-5
83.0%
Missouri Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 17Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+15
83.0%
Alabama Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
82.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 8 yds to the MIZ 40Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+5
81.9%
Jamal Roberts run for 5 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
81.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 1 yd to the MIZ 46Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
81.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Jordon Harris for 5 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
81.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
81.6%
Luke Bauer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Mbakwe at the ALA 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3081% → 80%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
81.4%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the ALA 8Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+2
81.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 2 yds to the ALA 10Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 7
OWN 10
-5
80.8%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 5Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 12
OWN 5
0
80.3%
James Burnip punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0320% → 19%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
80.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
80.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the ALA 48Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
80.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+1
80.9%
Luke Bauer punt for 40 yds , Ryan Williams returns for 1 yd to the ALA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:0181% → 79%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
80.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 5 yds to the ALA 14Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 14
-5
80.8%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 9Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+12
80.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 12 yds to the ALA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
80.5%
Jam Miller run for 14 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
80.6%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 37Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-8
80.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the ALA 39 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 29Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
80.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 16
OWN 29
-6
79.7%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 23Similar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 22
OWN 23
+36
79.1%
James Burnip punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 26 Alabama Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the MIZ 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4621% → 21%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
79.3%
Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+9
78.7%
Jamal Roberts run for 9 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
78.3%
Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
78.1%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Marquis JohnsonSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
78.2%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
79.2%
Luke Bauer punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:5880% → 83%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
79.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 26 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
80.7%
Justice Haynes run for 9 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+2
81.4%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
81.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 9 yds to the MIZ 34Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+3
81.7%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the MIZ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
81.6%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 33Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+21
81.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 21 yds to the MIZ 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
81.5%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the MIZ 11Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-10
81.3%
Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIZ 21Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 19
OPP 21
0
80.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 19
OPP 21
0
79.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 19
OPP 21
+39
82.5%
Graham Nicholson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5118% → 19%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
82.5%
Luther Burden III run for 12 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
81.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
81.0%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the MIZ 41Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-31
81.4%
Drew Pyne pass intercepted Malachi Moore return for 31 yds to the MIZ 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:3384% → 91%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
84.3%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+28
84.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 28 yds to the MIZ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.8%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13DOWNS
13 plays · 34 yds · 1:3112% → 12%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.5%
Jamal Roberts run for 8 yds to the MIZ 33Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
87.8%
Luther Burden III run for 3 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
88.4%
Jamal Roberts run for 7 yds to the MIZ 43Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
87.4%
Jamal Roberts run for 4 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
87.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jamal Roberts for 10 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
87.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 2 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
87.3%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
87.0%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 41
+40
87.8%
Blake Craig 59 yd FG RETURNED , Kendrick Law return for 40 yds to the ALA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:0789% → 97%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
89.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 14 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
89.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+32
89.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 32 yds to the MIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+23
90.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 23 yds to the MIZ 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.2%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the MIZ 9Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 9 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15INT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:465% → 4%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Jamal Roberts run for no gain to the MIZ 25Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Jamal Roberts run for no gain to the MIZ 25Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.8%
Drew Pyne run for 10 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
95.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Joshua Manning for 6 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
96.0%
Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
96.1%
Jamal Roberts run for 2 yds to the MIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.2%
Drew Pyne pass intercepted Bray Hubbard return for no gain to the ALA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2797% → 97%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
97.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
97.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr.Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
96.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+5
96.7%
Missouri Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the ALA 32Similar
Q3 8:21
4TH & 5
OWN 32
-15
96.6%
Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ALA 17Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 20
OWN 17
0
96.7%
James Burnip punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:554% → 3%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
96.5%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 13 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
96.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
96.6%
Drew Pyne pass intercepted Qua Russaw return for no gain to the ALA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:5097% → 100%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
97.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
50
+7
97.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 7 yds to the MIZ 43Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+28
97.4%
Justice Haynes run for 28 yds to the MIZ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
97.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the MIZ 11Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
99.7%
Jam Miller run for 11 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Jamal Roberts run for no gain to the MIZ 25Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.7%
Drew Pyne pass incomplete to Mekhi MillerSimilar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+14
99.7%
Luke Bauer punt for 44 yds , Ryan Williams returns for 14 yds to the ALA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
99.7%
Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ALA 24Similar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+5
99.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+21
99.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
50
-2
99.8%
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 48Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:14
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
99.8%
James Burnip punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the MIZ 25Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-1
99.8%
JR Blood run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 27Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Luke Bauer punt for 50 yds, downed at the ALA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
99.8%
Justice Haynes run for 10 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.8%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
99.8%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 39Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+26
99.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 26 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Justice Haynes run for 35 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
Missouri Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23DOWNS
16 plays · 88 yds · 6:110% → 0%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 5 yds to the MIZ 15Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the MIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the MIZ 24Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
99.9%
Jamal Roberts run for 4 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+10
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 10 yds to the MIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 20 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Jamal Roberts run for 6 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+14
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 14 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+12
99.9%
Jamal Roberts run for 12 yds to the ALA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.9%
Jamal Roberts run for 5 yds to the ALA 2Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Jamal Roberts run for no gain to the ALA 2Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the ALA 1Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 88 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
99.9%
Richard Young run for 1 yd to the ALA 3Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+62
99.9%
Richard Young run for 62 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
99.9%
Missouri Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
99.9%
Daniel Hill run for 7 yds to the MIZ 13Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Daniel Hill run for no gain to the MIZ 13Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+3
99.9%
Ty Simpson run for 3 yds to the MIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
100.0%
Richard Young run for no gain to the MIZ 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:54
Jam Miller run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q3 12:33
Jalen Milroe run for 9 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
+6.3
FG · Q2 4:38
Graham Nicholson 39 yd FG GOOD
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com