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BALL

Ball State 14 at Vanderbilt 24

VAN
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:52 · Tj Horton run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+23.4Home team on offense+4.9Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score differential+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:39: Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 41 yds for a TD (Diego Pavia pass to Cole Spence for Two-Point Conversion) — VAN win probability +8.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:03: Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK) — BALL win probability +13.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:58: Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST down — VAN win probability +8.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:44: Brock Taylor 38 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +3.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:48: Diego Pavia run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +11.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 1:42VAN 4th & 9 at BALL 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    88.7%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:09BALL 4th & 3 at VAN 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:37VAN 4th & 6 at BALL 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:07BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 44, up 1
    Close callPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:23VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 11, down 1
    Close callPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:31BALL 4th & 8 at VAN 47, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:40BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:46VAN 4th & 10 at BALL 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:46VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:52BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:44VAN 4th & 10 at BALL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−9.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:01BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:46BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:06BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:39VAN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    88.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:03BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:48VAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:525% → 7%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the BALL 31Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
95.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Kiael Kelly for 3 yds to the BALL 34Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
94.9%
Braedon Sloan run for 1 yd to the BALL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
94.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 14 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
94.6%
Kiael Kelly run for 4 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
94.5%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
94.3%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
94.1%
Malcolm Gillie run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 39Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+11
93.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 11 yds to the VAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
93.6%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 19 yds to the VAN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.7%
Kiael Kelly run for 9 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 6:2093% → 91%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.0%
Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds to the VAN 32Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
92.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
92.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 39Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
92.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 1 yd to the VAN 40Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+29
91.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 29 yds to the BALL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
92.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 8 yds to the BALL 23Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+15
91.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 15 yds to the BALL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
91.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the BALL 9Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.0%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the BALL 9Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
90.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
91.1%
Brock Taylor 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:339% → 10%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
90.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 24 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
90.1%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
90.1%
Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
89.8%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:09
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
90.0%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4FG
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:2990% → 90%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+38
90.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 38 yds to the BALL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
90.8%
Nate Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 49Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+43
90.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 43 yds to the BALL 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the BALL 8Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
90.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds to the BALL 1Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
89.5%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BALL 6Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
89.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
89.6%
Brock Taylor 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2611% → 13%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 8 yds to the BALL 33Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
88.0%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 5 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
87.7%
Kadin Semonza sacked by De'Marion Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the BALL 33Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
87.9%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+11
88.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 11 yds to the BALL 44Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
87.3%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 53 yds, downed at the VAN 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3188% → 86%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
87.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds to the VAN 10Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+1
87.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 1 yd to the VAN 11Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 2
OWN 11
0
86.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 2
OWN 11
+1
86.0%
Jesse Mirco punt for 39 yds , Qian Magwood returns for 1 yd to the VAN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4315% → 15%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
84.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 2 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
84.2%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
84.5%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
85.3%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 44 yds, downed at the VAN 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
11 plays · 97 yds · 3:4084% → 92%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
83.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+10
83.7%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the VAN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
83.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds to the VAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
83.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+8
82.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 8 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
81.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 11 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
82.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
83.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 13 yds to the BALL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
83.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
92.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 41 yds for a TD (Diego Pavia pass to Cole Spence for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:5010% → 9%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
89.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 7 yds to the BALL 25Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+6
89.4%
Kadin Semonza run for 6 yds to the BALL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
89.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 7 yds to the BALL 38Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-5
89.2%
(01:53) SEMONZA, Kadin pass to the left incomplete intended for MAGWOOD, Qian thrown to the BSU45; QB hurried by SYDNOR, Khordae, clock 01:51. PENALTY BSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HOOD, Chris enforced 5 yards from the BSU38 to the BSU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
89.8%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
90.3%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+10
90.6%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 50 yds , Martel Hight returns for 10 yds to the VAN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:4592% → 91%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
91.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to AJ Newberry for 5 yds to the VAN 32Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+23
91.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 23 yds to the BALL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
92.2%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the BALL 45Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
91.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
91.1%
Jesse Mirco punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3210% → 10%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
89.6%
Braedon Sloan run for 7 yds to the BALL 27Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
89.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the BALL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
89.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-12
89.6%
Kadin Semonza sacked by Nicholas Rinaldi for a loss of 12 yards to the BALL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0190% → 89%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
90.0%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
90.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the VAN 37Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+4
89.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 4 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
88.9%
Jesse Mirco punt for 53 yds, downed at the BALL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13TD
13 plays · 94 yds · 6:2911% → 31%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
89.1%
Braedon Sloan run for 3 yds to the BALL 9Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+11
89.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 11 yds to the BALL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 1 yd to the BALL 21Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
88.4%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 11 yds to the BALL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
87.8%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 4 yds to the BALL 36Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
86.9%
Braedon Sloan run for 5 yds to the BALL 41Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
86.0%
Vaughn Pemberton run for no gain to the BALL 41Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+9
86.7%
Tj Horton run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
50
+29
84.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Cam Pickett for 29 yds to the VAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
82.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Justin Bowick for 14 yds to the VAN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
69.5%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 6:1478% → 80%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
77.7%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
78.0%
Diego Pavia sacked by Brandon Berger for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 34Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 13
OWN 34
0
75.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+20
74.6%
Diego Pavia run for 20 yds to the BALL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
79.0%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the BALL 42Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
78.5%
AJ Newberry run for 3 yds to the BALL 39Similar
Q3 2:17
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+7
77.4%
Chase Gillespie run for 7 yds to the BALL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
78.3%
Moni Jones run for 2 yds to the BALL 30Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+7
77.8%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the BALL 23Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+3
76.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the BALL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
77.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
77.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
75.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
79.5%
Brock Taylor 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:3921% → 21%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
78.6%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 12 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
76.8%
Kiael Kelly run for 2 yds to the BALL 39Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-10
75.7%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Kadin Semonza for a loss of 10 yards to the BALL 29Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+6
79.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Braedon Sloan for 6 yds to the BALL 35Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+25
78.8%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 35 yds , Martel Hight returns for 25 yds to the BALL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 4:0183% → 94%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
83.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the BALL 41Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
83.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+8
82.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds to the BALL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
83.7%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the BALL 25Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+11
83.6%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the BALL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
83.3%
Moni Jones run for 3 yds to the BALL 11Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+6
83.1%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the BALL 5Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
94.2%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:598% → 7%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
92.3%
Kiael Kelly run for 13 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
90.9%
Kiael Kelly run for a loss of 7 yards to the BALL 31Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+6
93.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the BALL 37Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
93.3%
Kadin Semonza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 11
OWN 37
+7
93.3%
Brian Cooey Jr. punt for 34 yds , Martel Hight returns for 7 yds to the VAN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18END OF 4TH QUARTER
12 plays · 24 yds · 5:0195% → 98%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
94.5%
Chase Gillespie run for 2 yds to the VAN 38Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
94.7%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-5
94.7%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Chase Mitchell) to the VAN 36Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+17
94.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 17 yds to the BALL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
95.6%
Chase Gillespie run for 5 yds to the BALL 42Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
95.9%
Chase Gillespie run for 1 yd to the BALL 41Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+4
95.7%
Chase Gillespie run for 4 yds to the BALL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
98.2%
(01:59) [NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at BSU38 (team loss of 1), clock 01:54.Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-1
98.4%
(01:13) [NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at BSU39 (team loss of 1), clock 01:11.Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 12
OPP 39
-1
98.4%
(00:36) [NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at BSU40 (team loss of 1), clock 00:30.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:03
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds for a TD (Jackson Courville KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q4 7:48
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q2 2:39
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 41 yds for a TD (Diego Pavia pass to Cole Spence for Two-Point Conversion)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com