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ALA

Alabama 17 at Tennessee 24

TENN
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:33 · Jackson Ross punt for 49 yds , Cole Adams returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 34 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Zavier Mincey) to the ALA 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior−5.6Home team on offense−7.3Garbage-time factor−3.3Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:32: Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +17.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:00: Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +27.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:56: Justice Haynes run for 7 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +32.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:52: Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 16 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +35.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:44: Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the ALA 27 — TENN win probability +13.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:21ALA 4th & 20 at ALA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:29ALA 4th & 16 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:41TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:51TENN 4th & 3 at ALA 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:52ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:06TENN 4th & 7 at ALA 32, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:56ALA 4th & 1 at TENN 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−1.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:34ALA 4th & 10 at TENN 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:33TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−2.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:26ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 48, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:11ALA 4th & 13 at TENN 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−4.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−14.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:13TENN 4th & 11 at ALA 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−2.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:35ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−2.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:39ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:25TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:48ALA 4th & 22 at ALA 18, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:30TENN 4th & 2 at ALA 23, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−9.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:01ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:32TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:00TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:56ALA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:52TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:3062% → 61%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.1%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 24Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
38.3%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Parker Brailsford) to the ALA 19Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-4
38.4%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 15 Jalen Milroe fumbled, recovered by ALA Jalen MilroeSimilar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
38.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr.Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
38.8%
James Burnip punt for 46 yds, downed at the TENN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:0939% → 40%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
38.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
38.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 42Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+20
38.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 20 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
39.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 20 yds to the ALA 18 Dylan Sampson fumbled, forced by Malachi Moore, recovered by ALA Jihaad CampbellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 3:3161% → 60%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
39.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the ALA 25Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+2
39.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 2 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+9
39.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 9 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
39.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to CJ DippreSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
39.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+5
39.8%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (Omarr Norman-Lott) to the ALA 41Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+15
39.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 15 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
39.4%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 45Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-5
39.6%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Jaeden Roberts) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 16
50
0
39.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 16
50
0
40.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 16
50
0
40.4%
James Burnip punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jermod McCoy at the TENN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4340% → 40%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
40.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
40.3%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the TENN 14Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
40.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q1 7:41
4TH & 10
OWN 14
+11
39.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 48 yds , Cole Adams returns for 11 yds to the ALA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5INT
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:5160% → 60%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
39.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr.Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+16
39.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 16 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
39.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 20 yds to the TENN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
39.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 5 yds to the TENN 10Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-5
39.9%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 5 yards to the TENN 15Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+11
40.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 11 yds to the TENN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
40.0%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the TENN 3Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-54
40.2%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted Jermod McCoy return for 54 yds to the ALA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:4543% → 43%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
43.3%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (John Campbell Jr.) to the TENN 44Similar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+7
42.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 7 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
42.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+7
42.2%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jaylen Mbakwe) to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
43.7%
DeSean Bishop run for 1 yd to the ALA 41Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
43.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+6
43.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 6 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+53
43.2%
Max Gilbert 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:4459% → 65%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
41.5%
Jam Miller run for 8 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
40.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 5 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
40.9%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (Omari Thomas) to the TENN 46Similar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 5
OPP 46
0
40.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-7
40.9%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 47Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+15
42.4%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Boo Carter) to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
41.0%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+8
40.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 8 yds to the TENN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
41.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 21 yds to the TENN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
35.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 5 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:2238% → 38%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
37.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the TENN 19Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+26
37.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for 11 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jordan Renaud) to the TENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
38.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-2
39.3%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Justin Jefferson for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 46Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-41
37.7%
Gaston Moore pass intercepted Malachi Moore return for 41 yds to the TENN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -23 yds · 1:3165% → 63%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
35.4%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-10
35.1%
Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kadyn Proctor) to the TENN 42Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 16
OPP 42
+2
35.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 2 yds to the TENN 40Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 14
OPP 40
-5
36.0%
Alabama Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TENN 45Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 19
OPP 45
-14
36.3%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Dominic Bailey for a loss of 14 yards to the TENN 41 Alabama Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jalen Milroe) to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 33
OWN 41
0
37.5%
James Burnip punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10INT
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:3537% → 40%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
37.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 19 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
37.9%
Nico Iamaleava run for 7 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+11
38.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 11 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
38.7%
Cameron Seldon run for 1 yd to the ALA 42Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+23
38.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 23 yds to the ALA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-9
39.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass intercepted Jaylen Mbakwe return for 9 yds to the ALA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0864% → 64%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
35.7%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+4
35.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 4 yds to the ALA 20Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
35.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Caleb OdomSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
36.5%
James Burnip punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jermod McCoy at the TENN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:3736% → 37%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
36.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the TENN 35Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+5
37.1%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jihaad Campbell) to the TENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
37.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 9 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Tim Smith) to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
39.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
40.0%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
38.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
36.8%
Max Gilbert 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13MISSED FG
16 plays · 32 yds · 3:2466% → 70%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
34.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 9 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+3
33.2%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
32.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+13
32.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 13 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
30.4%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Kadyn Proctor) to the ALA 49Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+11
31.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 11 yds to the TENN 40Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
30.0%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the TENN 40Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+3
29.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 3 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+1
29.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
28.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
28.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
28.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to CJ DippreSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+54
30.5%
Graham Nicholson 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
34.0%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by LT Overton for a loss of 5 yards to the TENN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2234% → 32%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
33.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 7 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
34.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-10
34.6%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Deontae Lawson for a loss of 10 yards to the TENN 28Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 20
OWN 28
+9
32.1%
Nico Iamaleava run for 9 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 11
OWN 37
-3
31.5%
Jackson Ross punt for 49 yds , Cole Adams returns for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 34 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Zavier Mincey) to the ALA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:4568% → 70%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
32.2%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 11Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+7
32.1%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the ALA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
31.6%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the ALA 25Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+4
30.4%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
30.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 10 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
29.1%
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the ALA 39Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
29.4%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
29.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
30.0%
James Burnip punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jermod McCoy at the TENN 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 1:4532% → 57%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
32.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 13 yds to the TENN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
32.3%
Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the TENN 26Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+36
32.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 36 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
36.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+27
36.4%
Nico Iamaleava run for 27 yds to the ALA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
38.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 0
OPP 9
+7
39.5%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jihaad Campbell) to the ALA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:0752% → 60%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
47.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 12 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.6%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the ALA 37Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
47.1%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jermod McCoy) to the TENN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
44.2%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jayson Jenkins) to the TENN 43Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+18
43.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 18 yds to the TENN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
41.8%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 26Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+12
42.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 12 yds to the TENN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
41.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 17Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 13
OPP 17
0
42.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 13
OPP 17
0
45.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+35
40.2%
Graham Nicholson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1143% → 70%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.6%
Alabama Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TENN 30Similar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+8
45.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
44.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 3 yds to the TENN 41Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
46.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the TENN 42Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+55
42.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 55 yds to the ALA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:5438% → 68%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 5 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
60.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 7 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jermod McCoy) to the TENN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
56.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 2 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 15
OWN 31
-4
65.3%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 35Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+28
64.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 28 yds to the TENN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
31.7%
Justice Haynes run for 7 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
13 plays · 29 yds · 3:3141% → 36%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 8 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
43.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
42.0%
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
42.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
41.7%
Nico Iamaleava run for 9 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+9
42.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 9 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
45.3%
Tennessee Penalty, Illegal Touching (Jourdan Thomas) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 15
50
+5
40.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Holden Staes for 5 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+5
41.3%
DeSean Bishop run for 15 yds to the ALA 30 Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 40Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-1
43.6%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 41Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 6
OPP 41
-5
40.2%
Tennessee Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ALA 46Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
35.8%
Jackson Ross punt for 42 yds, downed at the ALA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3066% → 64%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
33.7%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the ALA 6Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+2
33.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the ALA 8Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 6
OWN 8
0
34.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 6
OWN 8
0
35.6%
James Burnip punt for 46 yds, downed at the TENN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:3042% → 80%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
41.9%
Nico Iamaleava run for 5 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
43.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Dylan SampsonSimilar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+10
41.7%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
43.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+10
45.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 10 yds to the ALA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
44.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the ALA 17Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+1
44.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the ALA 16Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
80.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 16 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0233% → 26%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.1%
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
71.9%
Jalen Milroe sacked by James Pearce Jr. and Jeremiah Telander for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 23Similar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
73.6%
James Burnip punt for 47 yds, downed at the TENN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:0583% → 86%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
82.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the TENN 31Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
83.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+1
84.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ethan Davis for 1 yd to the TENN 34Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+7
85.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 48 yds , Cole Adams returns for 7 yds to the ALA 41 Tennessee Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the ALA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:3326% → 21%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
73.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Justice HaynesSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
76.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 3 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
75.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kendrick LawSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 7
OWN 33
-15
78.3%
Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Kendrick Law) to the ALA 18Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 22
OWN 18
+13
78.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 13 yds to the ALA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:1492% → 96%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
92.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+2
92.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the ALA 25Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+2
92.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the ALA 23Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+41
95.6%
Max Gilbert 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted Will Brooks return for no gain to the ALA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:5997% → 97%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 39Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 13
OPP 39
-3
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:52
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 16 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+35.9
TD · Q4 13:56
Justice Haynes run for 7 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-32.8
TD · Q3 1:00
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+27
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com