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AUB

Auburn 17 at Missouri 21

MIZ
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:07 · Luke Bauer punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Home team on offense−7.9Pregame prior+4.0Garbage-time factor−3.3Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:34: Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 47 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +14.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:08: Antonio Kite 0 Yd Fumble Return (Towns McGough Kick) — AUB win probability +12.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:57: Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Cook Run For Two-point Conversion) — MIZ win probability +35.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49: Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the AUB 29 — AUB win probability +13.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:46: Jamal Roberts run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +53.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 8:24MIZ 4th & 13 at AUB 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:56MIZ 4th & 7 at AUB 32, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:28AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:05MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 31, up 3
    Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:12AUB 4th & 5 at MIZ 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:21MIZ 4th & 9 at AUB 38, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:52AUB 4th & 15 at MIZ 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:07MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:44MIZ 4th & 8 at AUB 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:31AUB 4th & 12 at MIZ 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−8.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:55AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:55MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−4.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:54AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:56MIZ 4th & 8 at MIZ 4, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:26AUB 4th & 13 at MIZ 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:29MIZ 4th & 5 at AUB 41, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%−1.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%
    32% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−9.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:09AUB 4th & 18 at AUB 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 0 of 2AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 12:34AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:08AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:57MIZ Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:46MIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1FG
12 plays · 41 yds · 6:3459% → 60%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
59.1%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
59.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 6 yds to the MIZ 34Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
59.1%
Brady Cook run for 6 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
59.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 16 yds to the AUB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
59.5%
Brady Cook sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 45Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-1
59.5%
Marcus Carroll run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 46Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+15
59.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Joshua Manning for 15 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
59.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-11
60.0%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 11 yards to the AUB 40Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+6
59.3%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 13
OPP 34
+51
59.6%
Blake Craig 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0540% → 39%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
60.2%
Payton Thorne sacked by Zion Young for a loss of 5 yards to the AUB 5Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 15
OWN 5
0
60.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 15
OWN 5
+9
60.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 9 yds to the AUB 14Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
60.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 36 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3MISSED FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5461% → 60%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
50
+15
60.7%
Nate Noel run for 15 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.1%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the AUB 35Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
61.2%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 3 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
61.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
60.3%
Blake Craig 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1140% → 39%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
60.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
60.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 36Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
60.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
61.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1560% → 60%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
60.3%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the MIZ 29Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
60.5%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
60.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
59.5%
Luke Bauer punt for 47 yds, downed at the AUB 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:4040% → 43%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
60.5%
Payton Thorne run for 14 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
60.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+10
59.6%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 10 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
59.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 9 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
58.9%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
59.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for no gain to the MIZ 37Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+18
59.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 18 yds to the MIZ 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
58.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the MIZ 15Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
58.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the MIZ 14Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
59.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
57.3%
Towns McGough 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:0360% → 62%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
59.7%
PYNE, Drew pass to the left incomplete intended for NOEL, Nate thrown to the MIZZOU42, clock 10:59. PENALTY AUBURN Pass Interference on KEYS, Austin enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the MIZZOU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
60.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 2
50
+3
61.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
61.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jordon Harris for 17 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
62.3%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-3
62.2%
Drew Pyne run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 33 Drew Pyne fumbled, recovered by AUB Jalen McLeod J. McLeod return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0543% → 45%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
57.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 14 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
55.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
55.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 6 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
54.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 7 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
54.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 5 yds to the MIZ 35 Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (KeAndre Lambert-Smith) to the MIZ 45Similar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+5
54.8%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the MIZ 40 Payton Thorne fumbled, recovered by MIZ Toriano Pride Jr. T. Pride Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:0961% → 59%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.9%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+21
60.0%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 21 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
61.8%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
61.7%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd to the AUB 38Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
60.9%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+55
58.8%
Blake Craig 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:2646% → 45%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
54.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 1 yd to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+8
54.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+15
53.5%
Missouri Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on NORWOOD, Dreyden enforced (Dreyden Norwood) to the MIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
51.6%
(03:14) THORNE, Payton scrambles up the middle for no gain to the MIZZOU33 (WILLIAMS, Sidney), clock 03:15. PENALTY AUBURN Holding on WRIGHT, Jeremiah enforced 10 yards from the MIZZOU33 to the MIZZOU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 20
OPP 43
-5
53.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for a loss of 5 yards to the MIZ 48Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 25
OPP 48
+15
54.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 15 yds to the MIZ 33Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-5
51.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 5 yards to the MIZ 38Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 15
OPP 38
0
55.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11END OF HALF
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:0157% → 58%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
57.1%
Jamal Roberts run for 5 yds to the MIZ 13Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+3
58.3%
Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds to the MIZ 16Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+8
57.1%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Luther Burden III for 8 yds to the MIZ 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
58.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Jordon Harris for 3 yds to the MIZ 27Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
58.7%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Luther Burden III for 3 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-3
58.3%
Drew Pyne sacked by Eugene Asante for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2244% → 62%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 9 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
53.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 7 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
53.3%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 1
50
+2
51.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
52.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the MIZ 47Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+47
37.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 47 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1742% → 40%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
41.6%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
41.5%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
40.3%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
39.6%
Luke Bauer punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4862% → 72%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
37.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 39Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
38.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
39.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
28.0%
Antonio Kite 0 Yd Fumble Return (Towns McGough Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:1929% → 31%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
28.6%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Luther Burden III for 4 yds to the MIZ 39Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+6
29.2%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
28.8%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Luther Burden III for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 5
50
+7
28.3%
Marcus Carroll run for 7 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
28.5%
Auburn Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Robert Woodyard Jr.) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
28.4%
Drew Pyne run for 2 yds to the AUB 21Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
28.0%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
26.6%
Drew Pyne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
31.4%
Blake Craig 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16MISSED FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 7:0870% → 80%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
30.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
29.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
27.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
26.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
25.5%
Damari Alston run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 48Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+10
25.6%
Payton Thorne run for 10 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
24.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
24.0%
Malcolm Simmons run for 15 yds to the MIZ 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
23.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 15 yds to the MIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
23.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-12
22.9%
Payton Thorne sacked by Jahkai Lang for a loss of 12 yards to the MIZ 22Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+10
20.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 10 yds to the MIZ 12Similar
Q3 0:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
20.4%
Towns McGough 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:2826% → 60%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
25.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
24.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+78
23.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 78 yds to the AUB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Cook Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5454% → 53%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.2%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
45.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
44.9%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the AUB 32Similar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
46.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:5048% → 43%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
48.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+19
48.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 19 yds to the MIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
50.0%
Brady Cook sacked by Malik Blocton and Dorian Mausi Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MIZ 31Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 17
OWN 31
-9
47.7%
Brady Cook sacked by Eugene Asante for a loss of 9 yards to the MIZ 22Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 26
OWN 22
+12
43.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 12 yds to the MIZ 34Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
42.9%
Luke Bauer punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:5561% → 66%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
38.8%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+18
38.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 18 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
33.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
32.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 49Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
31.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
33.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 49 yds, downed at the MIZ 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5442% → 38%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
42.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the MIZ 4Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
41.1%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
39.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+8
38.1%
Luke Bauer punt for 41 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 8 yds to the MIZ 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2574% → 69%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
26.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 39Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-1
26.1%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 40Similar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
27.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
30.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23TD
21 plays · 95 yds · 3:3540% → 96%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
39.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+9
38.8%
Brady Cook run for 9 yds to the MIZ 14Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+5
37.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the MIZ 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
39.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
38.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 3 yds to the MIZ 22Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+14
34.0%
Brady Cook run for 14 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
36.9%
Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds to the MIZ 39Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+15
36.3%
(01:57) COOK, Brady pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WEASE, Theo thrown to the AUBURN35, clock 01:53. PENALTY AUBURN Pass Interference on LOUIDOR-FAUSTIN, Kensley enforced 15 yards to the AUBURN46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
37.5%
Brady Cook sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 8 yards to the MIZ 46Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 18
OWN 46
0
31.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 18
OWN 46
+13
29.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 13 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+16
34.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 16 yds to the AUB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
43.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
41.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+10
35.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 10 yds to the AUB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
42.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 6 yds to the AUB 9Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+5
42.8%
Jamal Roberts run for 5 yds to the AUB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.0%
Jamal Roberts run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:3210% → 8%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
90.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. and TEAM for a loss of 8 yards to the AUB 17Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
92.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
92.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
96.8%
(00:09) [NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at AUBURN18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:04.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:46
Jamal Roberts run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)
+53.3
TD · Q4 14:57
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds for a TD (B. Cook Run For Two-point Conversion)
+35.8
TD · Q3 12:34
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 47 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com