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TA&M

Texas A&M 34 at Mississippi State 24

MSST
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NHSG] Kneel down by WEIGMAN, Conner at STATE36 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:48: Amari Daniels run for 6 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +5.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:21: Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +9.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q3 7:10: Randy Bond 28 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +4.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:24: Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +9.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 6:13: Randy Bond 44 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +4.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 11:02MSST 4th & 1 at TA&M 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:36MSST 4th & 3 at TA&M 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:01MSST 4th & 21 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:30MSST 4th & 6 at TA&M 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:10TA&M 4th & 11 at MSST 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−1.8
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−9.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:18MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 30, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:47MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:14TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:55MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:13TA&M 4th & 2 at MSST 27, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%−1.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−8.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:59MSST 4th & 1 at TA&M 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.2%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:40TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 43, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:40MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:38MSST 4th & 22 at MSST 35, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:36MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:41TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:29TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:48TA&M Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:21MSST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:24TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 5:058% → 10%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
7.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 13 yds to the MSST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
7.7%
Mario Craver run for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 16Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+13
7.8%
Davon Booth run for 13 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+40
8.0%
Davon Booth run for 40 yds to the TA&M 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
8.4%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
8.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for no gain to the TA&M 29Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+7
8.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 7 yds to the TA&M 22Similar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+1
8.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
9.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
9.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+7
9.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 7 yds to the TA&M 14Similar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+14
10.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 14 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:4990% → 88%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
10.2%
Jabre Barber run for 1 yd to the TA&M 27Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
10.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TA&M 30Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+6
11.1%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jabre Barber for 6 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
11.3%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
11.4%
Amari Daniels run for 7 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+14
11.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jabre Barber for 14 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
11.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jabre Barber for no gain to the MSST 43Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
12.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-5
12.4%
(05:23) MOSS, Le'Veon rush to the left for a gain of 30 yards to the STATE10 (LANIER, Brylan), clock 05:15. PENALTY Before the snap, TEXAS Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the STATE40 to the STATE45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+14
12.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Amari Daniels for 14 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
12.7%
EJ Smith run for 1 yd to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+1
13.0%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+9
13.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jabre Barber for 9 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
11.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Noah Thomas for 20 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:2913% → 15%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
12.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds to the MSST 15Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
13.0%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 17Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+11
13.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 11 yds to the MSST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
13.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 8 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+25
14.5%
Johnnie Daniels run for 25 yds to the TA&M 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
15.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 38Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-6
15.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Rylan Kennedy and Taurean York for a loss of 6 yards to the TA&M 44Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 15
OPP 44
-6
15.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 21
50
0
14.9%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TA&M 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:3685% → 89%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
14.7%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
15.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TA&M 22Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+58
15.5%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jabre Barber for 58 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
14.0%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
14.1%
Amari Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 14Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
14.7%
Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
11.3%
Le'Veon Moss run for 9 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:5913% → 17%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.5%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
12.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 17 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
13.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 11 yds to the TA&M 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
14.3%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the TA&M 45Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+38
14.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 38 yds to the TA&M 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
14.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the TA&M 12Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
15.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
14.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 6 yds to the TA&M 6Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
16.9%
Kyle Ferrie 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4784% → 84%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
15.8%
Conner Weigman pass intercepted Hunter Washington return for no gain to the TA&M 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:4385% → 89%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
15.1%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+4
14.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
15.1%
Amari Daniels run for no gain to the MSST 21Similar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+15
16.1%
(02:00) WEIGMAN, Conner pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WALKER, Jahdae thrown to the STATE1, clock 01:55. PENALTY STATE Pass Interference on WASHINGTON, Hunter enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the STATE6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
10.8%
Amari Daniels run for 6 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2712% → 23%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.7%
Davon Booth run for 6 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
12.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 8 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
12.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+14
12.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 14 yds to the TA&M 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
14.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
13.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 22 yds to the TA&M 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.3%
EJ Smith run for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10FG
19 plays · 64 yds · 7:5281% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
18.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds to the TA&M 34Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
19.1%
Conner Weigman run for 2 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
19.4%
Conner Weigman run for 9 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
18.5%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
18.9%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
19.0%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 12 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
19.1%
Jabre Barber run for 5 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
18.5%
Amari Daniels run for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+11
19.9%
Amari Daniels run for 11 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-15
19.1%
(09:37) WEIGMAN, Conner pass deep to the right complete for 18 yards to WALKER, Jahdae caught at the STATE5 and advanced to the STATE5, End of Play, clock 09:39. PENALTY TEXAS Pass Interference on WALKER, Jahdae enforced 15 yards to the STATE38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 25
OPP 38
+2
20.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 23
OPP 36
0
21.1%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 23
OPP 36
+26
22.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Tre Watson for 26 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
20.6%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
20.6%
Amari Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 11Similar
Q3 7:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
16.5%
Randy Bond 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
15.4%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5219% → 19%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
19.1%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the MSST 20Similar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
19.0%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 18Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+10
19.3%
(06:18) VAN BUREN JR., Michael sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the STATE15 (WILLIAMS, Scooby;MAYES, BJ), clock 06:13. PENALTY TEXAS Holding on HOWELL, Cashius enforced 10 yards from the STATE18 to the STATE28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
20.1%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
20.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
19.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+2
18.7%
Xavier Gayten run for 2 yds to the MSST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:5985% → 94%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
15.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Noah Thomas for 17 yds to the MSST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
15.1%
Amari Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 9Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+3
15.2%
Conner Weigman run for 3 yds to the MSST 6Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
15.5%
(03:34) DANIELS, Amari rush to the left for no gain to the STATE6 (BLANTON, Stone;ELLINGTON, Corey), clock 03:30. PENALTY Before the snap, STATE Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the STATE6 to the STATE3 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.3%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:379% → 9%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
9.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
9.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 9 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
9.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
9.0%
Johnnie Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
9.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 5 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
10.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
10.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
9.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
9.2%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 46 yds, downed at the TA&M 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4693% → 94%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
6.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 4 yds to the TA&M 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
6.3%
Conner Weigman pass intercepted Zakari Tillman return for no gain to the TA&M 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2283% → 80%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
17.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 22Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-10
17.3%
(12:52) MOSS, Le'Veon rush up the middle for a gain of 38 yards to the STATE40 (JONES, Kelley), clock 12:45. PENALTY TEXAS Holding on REED-ADAMS, Armaj enforced 10 yards from the TEXAS22 to the TEXAS12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+3
18.1%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the TA&M 15Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+5
18.9%
Conner Weigman pass complete to EJ Smith for 5 yds to the TA&M 20Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
20.1%
Tyler White punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2122% → 20%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
22.4%
(11:16) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass to the right incomplete dropped by MOSLEY, Jordan thrown to the STATE49, clock 11:10. PENALTY STATE Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BOONE, Canon enforced 5 yards from the STATE37 to the STATE32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+1
21.5%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 33Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 14
OWN 33
+6
20.2%
Johnnie Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
21.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+6
19.9%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 45 yds , Jabre Barber returns for 6 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:4284% → 91%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
15.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds to the TA&M 38Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+16
14.2%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 16 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
13.3%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 11 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
13.1%
Le'Veon Moss run for 5 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
12.5%
Conner Weigman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+3
13.0%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+44
9.1%
Randy Bond 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:1410% → 10%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
9.7%
Davon Booth run for 17 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
10.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 39Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+11
9.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 2
50
+1
10.7%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the TA&M 49Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
9.8%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the TA&M 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 0:2593% → 93%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
7.3%
Texas A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Albert Regis) to the TA&M 34Similar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
8.1%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 38Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
6.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 5 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
6.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the TA&M 43Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
6.6%
Tyler White punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 20 yds · 3:025% → 3%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
5.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 12Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+12
5.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 12 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
5.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+2
4.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
5.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
5.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+11
5.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 11 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
6.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
5.9%
VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass to the right incomplete intended for BOOTH, Davon thrown to the STATE46. PENALTY TEXAS Holding on MAYES, BJ enforced 10 yards from the STATE37 to the STATE47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
6.6%
VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass to the right incomplete intended for AKHARAIYI, Kelly thrown to the TEXAS47. PENALTY STATE Personal Foul on COLEMAN JR., Kevin enforced 15 yards from the STATE47 to the STATE32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 25
OWN 32
-9
5.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 23 Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled, recovered by MSST Canon Boone , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 34
OWN 23
+12
5.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 12 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 22
OWN 35
0
5.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 22
OWN 35
0
2.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
3.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WEIGMAN, Conner at STATE36 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:21
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q3 3:24
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-9.2
TD · Q2 1:48
Amari Daniels run for 6 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com