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LSU

LSU 34 at Arkansas 10

ARK
2024 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2024 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:45 · Devin Bale punt for 58 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for no gain to the LSU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Home team on offense−36.3Score differential−15.7Garbage-time factor−13.1Pregame prior−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:21: Caden Durham run for 22 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 13:04: Damian Ramos 48 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:25: Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 25 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — ARK win probability +12.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:57: Matthew Shipley 51 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +4.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:52: Caden Durham run for 2 yds for a TD (Garrett Nussmeier pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion) — LSU win probability +18.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 6:24ARK 4th & 3 at LSU 23, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−1.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:38LSU 4th & 8 at ARK 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−3.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:04LSU 4th & 13 at ARK 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:10LSU 4th & 5 at ARK 16, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−5.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:19ARK 4th & 10 at LSU 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:57ARK 4th & 9 at LSU 33, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:10LSU 4th & 23 at ARK 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−4.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:42ARK 4th & 20 at LSU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:57LSU 4th & 3 at ARK 30, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.3%−1.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:45ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:34LSU 4th & 11 at ARK 28, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 10:21LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:25ARK Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:52LSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:20LSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3758% → 59%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
41.9%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
42.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 9 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
42.1%
Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
42.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 11 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
42.3%
(11:58) NUSSMEIER, Garrett pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DANIELS, CJ thrown to the ARK0, clock 11:52. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on SINGLETARY, Jaheim enforced 15 yards to the ARK23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
42.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 14 yds to the ARK 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
42.3%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the ARK 2Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
42.4%
(10:33) NUSSMEIER, Garrett pass short to the right complete for 2 yards to TAYLOR, Mason caught at the ARK1 and advanced to the ARK0, TOUCHDOWN LSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 10:31 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY LSU Pass Interference on LACY, Kyren enforced 15 yards to the ARK17 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
-5
42.6%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARK 22Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+22
40.9%
Caden Durham run for 22 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:5541% → 41%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
41.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 16 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
41.8%
Jordan Anthony run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 6
50
+20
41.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 20 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
42.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
42.1%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+5
41.7%
Taylen Green run for 5 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 6:24
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+42
41.1%
Matthew Shipley 42 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 5:4360% → 63%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
40.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
40.4%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+8
40.5%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+18
40.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 18 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
39.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 10 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
38.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
38.8%
Caden Durham run for 8 yds to the ARK 37Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+7
38.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 7 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
38.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the ARK 21Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
38.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-5
38.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARK 26Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+8
38.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 8 yds to the ARK 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
37.6%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the ARK 16Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
37.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:46
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
37.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
37.3%
Damian Ramos 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:1037% → 37%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
36.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 13 yds to the ARK 38 Rashod Dubinion fumbled, recovered by LSU Major Burns M. Burns return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
36.5%
LSU Penalty, Illegal Snap on CHESTER, DJ enforced (-5 Yards) to the ARK 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:2463% → 67%
Q1 0:28
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+11
36.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 11 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+4
36.1%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the ARK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
35.9%
LSU Penalty, False Start (DJ Chester) to the ARK 33Similar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
35.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+2
36.1%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
36.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+48
33.3%
Damian Ramos 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3931% → 42%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ja'Quinden Jackson for 7 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
30.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
30.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 3 yds to the ARK 39Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
30.0%
Braylen Russell run for 3 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
29.4%
Taylen Green run for 7 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
29.7%
Taylen Green run for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+10
29.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 10 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
29.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 14 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
41.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 25 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:1562% → 67%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.9%
Kaleb Jackson run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
36.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 8 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
35.4%
Kaleb Jackson run for 12 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
34.7%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
34.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
34.6%
(05:37) NUSSMEIER, Garrett pass deep to the left incomplete intended for TAYLOR, Mason thrown to the ARK20, clock 05:28. PENALTY ARK Offsides on SPENCE, Brad enforced 5 yards from the ARK45 to the ARK40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-5
34.6%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Will Campbell) to the ARK 45Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+15
34.6%
Arkansas Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on DAVILLIER, Nico enforced (Nico Davillier) to the ARK 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
33.6%
Zavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the ARK 16Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-5
33.1%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Aaron Anderson) to the ARK 21Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
33.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 5 yds to the ARK 16Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
33.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
32.6%
Damian Ramos 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 1:4933% → 35%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
32.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 7 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
33.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 8 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
33.5%
(02:27) GREEN, Taylen pass to the right complete for 11 yards to BRODEN, Tyrone caught at the LSU49 and advanced to the LSU49, out of bounds, clock 02:21. PENALTY ARK Holding on HARRIS, E'Marion enforced 10 yards from the ARK40 to the ARK30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 20
OWN 30
0
32.2%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 20
OWN 30
+14
32.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 14 yds to the ARK 44Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
35.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 7 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
37.3%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
36.6%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
35.8%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
35.0%
Devin Bale punt for 47 yds, downed at the LSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9END OF HALF
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:0062% → 65%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
38.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+15
38.0%
(01:03) NUSSMEIER, Garrett pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LACY, Kyren thrown to the LSU34, clock 00:57. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Marquise enforced 15 yards to the LSU24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
38.7%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
35.5%
(00:09) [NH] Kneel down by NUSSMEIER, Garrett at LSU22 (team loss of 2), clock 00:03.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 5:0134% → 39%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
34.1%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
33.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 11 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
34.9%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
34.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 41Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+14
33.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 14 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
35.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 11 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
36.9%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
36.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 4 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-3
34.0%
Taylen Green sacked by Jay'viar Suggs and Davhon Keys for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+51
38.7%
Matthew Shipley 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 4:4766% → 67%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
34.4%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
32.8%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
32.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 7 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
31.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 29 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
28.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
29.0%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the ARK 34Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 9
OPP 34
-10
29.1%
(06:43) NUSSMEIER, Garrett pass deep to the right complete for 19 yards to TAYLOR, Mason caught at the ARK15 and advanced to the ARK15, out of bounds, clock 06:35. PENALTY LSU Holding on JONES JR., Emery enforced 10 yards from the ARK34 to the ARK44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 19
OPP 44
-15
31.6%
(06:19) NUSSMEIER, Garrett pass to the left complete for 14 yards to LACY, Kyren caught at the ARK30 and advanced to the ARK30 (ROBINSON, Marquise), clock 06:10. PENALTY LSU Pass Interference on LACY, Kyren enforced 15 yards to the LSU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 34
OWN 41
+11
32.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 11 yds to the ARK 48Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 23
OPP 48
0
33.5%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
30.7%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Whit Weeks return for 3 yds to the ARK 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.7%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds for a TD (Garrett Nussmeier pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:0810% → 9%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
9.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
50
+9
10.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 9 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+4
10.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
10.1%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
9.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Braylen Russell for no gain to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-10
9.3%
Taylen Green sacked by Whit Weeks for a loss of 10 yards to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 20
OPP 47
0
8.5%
Devin Bale punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:3987% → 95%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
12.7%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
12.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 11 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
11.9%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+14
11.2%
(14:58) NUSSMEIER, Garrett pass to the right incomplete intended for LACY, Kyren thrown to the LSU49, clock 14:53. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Marquise enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the ARK50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
50
+13
10.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 13 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
8.8%
Garrett Nussmeier run for no gain to the ARK 37Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
8.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+2
6.3%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+47
5.5%
Damian Ramos 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:114% → 3%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
3.8%
Taylen Green sacked by Paris Shand for a loss of 11 yards to the ARK 14Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+8
3.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 8 yds to the ARK 22Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
3.1%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
2.8%
Devin Bale punt for 58 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 8:2096% → 100%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
4.1%
Kaleb Jackson run for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
3.9%
Kaleb Jackson run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
2.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 3 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
2.6%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 33Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+2
2.5%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+10
2.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 10 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
2.0%
Caden Durham run for 9 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+11
1.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 11 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
1.4%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+13
1.3%
Caden Durham run for 13 yds to the ARK 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
1.0%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 5 yds to the ARK 13Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
0.8%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the ARK 10Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+9
0.8%
Caden Durham run for 9 yds to the ARK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 10 yds Isaiah Sategna fumbled, recovered by LSU Davhon Keys D. Keys return for 8 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
0.3%
Kaleb Jackson run for 3 yds to the ARK 24Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
0.2%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 4 yds to the ARK 20Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 3
OPP 20
-5
0.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Josh Williams) to the ARK 25Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-3
0.2%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARK 28Similar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+2
0.3%
Rickie Collins pass complete to Ka'Morreun Pimpton for 2 yds to the ARK 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20END OF GAME
4 plays · 24 yds · 0:290% → 0%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
0.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 5 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+19
0.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
50
0
0.3%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
50
0
0.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:52
Caden Durham run for 2 yds for a TD (Garrett Nussmeier pass to Trey'Dez Green for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.1
TD · Q2 8:25
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 25 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+12.8
FG · Q3 9:57
Matthew Shipley 51 yd FG GOOD
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com