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MISS

Ole Miss 26 at LSU 29

LSU
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:21 · Peyton Todd punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 37 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Aka) 10 yards to the MISS 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 176Pregame prior−1.5Home team on offense−9.5Garbage-time factor−5.9Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:33: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 12 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 1:42: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 15 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +7.9 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 0:27: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 23 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +46.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Caden Davis 57 Yd Field Goal — MISS win probability +21.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Kyren Lacy 25 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier — LSU win probability +59.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 14:11LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:54MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:43LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:54MISS 4th & 5 at LSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:45MISS 4th & 1 at LSU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:27LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:55MISS 4th & 4 at LSU 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%−0.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:47LSU 4th & 2 at MISS 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.4%−1.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:39MISS 4th & 1 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.0%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:34LSU 4th & 8 at MISS 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−4.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:05LSU 4th & 10 at MISS 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−7.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:38MISS 4th & 29 at MISS 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−5.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:17LSU 4th & 8 at MISS 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−8.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:41MISS 4th & 10 at LSU 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−2.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−11.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:10LSU 4th & 6 at MISS 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−10.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:26MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.4%−4.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:04MISS 4th & 19 at MISS 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−6.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:21LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:14MISS 4th & 5 at LSU 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−14.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:00LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−2.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:27LSU 4th & 5 at MISS 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−4.7
    70% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−7.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:39MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:33LSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:42MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:27LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−6.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3635% → 36%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.4%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
35.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
35.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
35.6%
Peyton Todd punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1164% → 64%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
35.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
35.8%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 19Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
35.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+5
36.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
36.3%
Fraser Masin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0536% → 36%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
36.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
36.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
36.4%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass complete to Lacy, Kyren for 13 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY LSU illegal touching (Lacy, Kyren) 0 yards to the LSU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
36.4%
Peyton Todd punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:3863% → 62%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
36.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 24 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
36.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
36.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+17
36.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 17 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
36.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+7
36.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 7 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+10
36.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 10 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
36.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 4 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
36.8%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the LSU 16Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-10
37.2%
Dart, Jaxson rush for 12 yards to the LSU4, PENALTY MISS holding (Pettus, Micah) 10 yards to the LSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+11
37.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
38.0%
Caden Davis 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2739% → 39%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
38.5%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-10
38.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted by Jamarious Brown at the LSU 23, returned for 10 yds to the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2363% → 61%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
37.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
37.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+5
38.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 1
OPP 4
-1
38.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1439% → 40%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
39.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+25
39.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 25 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
39.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 10 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
40.5%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
40.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
40.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+1
39.6%
Peyton Todd punt for 44 yds , Micah Davis returns for 1 yd to the MISS 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8FG
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:2161% → 62%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
39.5%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Bradyn Swinson for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 15Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+47
39.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 47 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
38.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-1
38.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+3
39.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
38.5%
Caden Davis 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9DOWNS
13 plays · 34 yds · 5:0439% → 40%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.0%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
39.3%
Caden Durham run for 5 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
39.8%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zxavian Harris) to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
40.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-3
39.9%
Caden Durham run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+18
38.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 18 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
41.8%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the MISS 45Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
42.0%
Caden Durham run for 13 yds to the MISS 32 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Kyren Lacy) to the MISS 42Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
42.3%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+1
42.2%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the MISS 38Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 2
OPP 38
-3
40.1%
Kaleb Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:0463% → 68%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
37.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MISS 41Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
38.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+9
38.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 1
50
+50
32.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 50 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5731% → 43%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
31.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 17 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
31.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
31.2%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-5
30.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Miles Frazier) to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+21
29.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 21 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
32.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 28 yds to the MISS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
42.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 12 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:4162% → 74%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
38.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 17 yds to the MISS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
36.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
37.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 4 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+9
37.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 9 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
36.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 11 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
35.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-1
34.9%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Gio Paez and Da'Shawn Womack for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+12
35.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 12 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
33.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
33.4%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the LSU 15Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
26.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 15 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:0226% → 33%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
25.5%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Lacy, Kyren, PENALTY MISS pass interference (Canady, Jadon) 15 yards to the LSU40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
26.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
26.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 15 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
27.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 12 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
28.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 15 yds to the MISS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
28.7%
Caden Durham run for 2 yds to the MISS 16Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
28.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
27.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
32.7%
Damian Ramos 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 3 yds Henry Parrish Jr. fumbled, forced by Whit Weeks, recovered by LSU Dominick McKinleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15FG
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1637% → 37%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
36.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
36.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
34.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
37.0%
Damian Ramos 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
36.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
17 plays · 18 yds · 4:1862% → 60%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 9 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 14:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
37.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
36.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 9 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q3 13:43
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
35.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
36.6%
JJ Pegues run for 5 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
35.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
36.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+7
36.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
35.6%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Major Burns for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 45 Jaxson Dart fumbled, forced by Major Burns, recovered by MISS Jaxson Dart , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 17
OPP 45
-15
36.6%
Ole Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (Gerquan Scott) to the MISS 40Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 32
OWN 40
-5
38.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Nate Kalepo) to the MISS 35Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 37
OWN 35
0
39.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 37
OWN 35
+8
40.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 29
OWN 43
+6
40.4%
Fraser Masin punt for 45 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 6 yds to the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 3:1240% → 42%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
40.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 5 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-5
41.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (DJ Chester) to the LSU 18Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
40.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 6 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+46
40.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 46 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
47.7%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
46.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
44.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
41.6%
Damian Ramos 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:3163% → 72%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
37.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 12 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
34.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 39Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+5
36.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 5 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+27
35.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 27 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
33.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 8 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
33.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
32.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q3 4:52
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
33.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
34.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
27.8%
Caden Davis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:2632% → 41%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.9%
Josh Williams run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
33.1%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 2 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
33.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
32.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 16 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
36.4%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+15
36.7%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Anderson, Aaron, PENALTY MISS roughing passer (Nolen, Walter) 15 yards to the MISS28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
38.9%
Caden Durham run for 3 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+1
38.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 1 yd to the MISS 24Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
36.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
40.5%
Damian Ramos 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21INT
12 plays · 40 yds · 5:0166% → 73%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-8
33.4%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Major Burns and Greg Penn III for a loss of 8 yards to the MISS 20Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+18
35.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 18 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
31.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
30.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MISS 41Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
30.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q4 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+33
30.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 33 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
26.5%
Bentley IV, Ulysses rush for 4 yards to the LSU16, PENALTY MISS holding (Prieskorn, Caden) 10 yards to the LSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 20
OPP 30
-5
26.7%
Ole Miss Penalty, Delay of Game (Jaxson Dart) to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 25
OPP 35
0
26.8%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted by Zy Alexander at the LSU 0, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Trey Amos return for no gain to the MISS 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:4673% → 67%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
26.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
27.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-9
28.8%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Bradyn Swinson for a loss of 9 yards to the MISS 30Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
33.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:3537% → 30%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
36.7%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 15Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
35.5%
Caden Durham run for 7 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-10
34.8%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass complete to Lacy, Kyren for 17 yards to the LSU39, PENALTY LSU holding (Jones Jr., Emery) 10 yards to the LSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+14
33.8%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 14 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
36.7%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
33.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for no gain to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
31.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 10
OWN 26
+47
30.1%
Peyton Todd punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 37 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Aka) 10 yards to the MISS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:0075% → 88%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
25.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 16 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
21.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 3 yds to the MISS 46 LSU Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Whit Weeks) 15 yards to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
20.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 15 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
17.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
17.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+4
19.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
11.6%
Caden Davis 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:4220% → 60%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.5%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
17.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+14
13.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 14 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
17.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
16.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+19
15.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 19 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
18.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+10
17.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 10 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
24.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
19.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Shelton Sampson Jr.Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+5
16.2%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the MISS 23Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+23
59.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 23 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:1252% → 56%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
48.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
45.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+9
45.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the MISS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
44.4%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Whit Weeks for a loss of 6 yards to the MISS 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28FG
7 plays · -15 yds · 0:0059% → 74%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
41.1%
Bentley IV, Ulysses rush for loss of 2 yards to the LSU27, PENALTY MISS holding (McIntyre, Reece) 10 yards to the LSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
0
44.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 35
-5
45.5%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Reece McIntyre) to the LSU 40Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 25
OPP 40
0
45.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dae'Quan WrightSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 25
OPP 40
0
47.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden LeeSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 25
OPP 40
+57
26.1%
Caden Davis 57 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 29TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
85.2%
Kyren Lacy 25 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Kyren Lacy 25 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier
+59.1
TD · Q4 0:27
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 23 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+46.1
FG · OT 0:00
Caden Davis 57 Yd Field Goal
-21.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com