2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreVAN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:47 · Brock Taylor 50 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:13: Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +12.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:47: Brock Taylor 50 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +7.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:02: Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UK win probability +17.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:02: Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 30 — VAN win probability +13.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:59: Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at UK42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:59. — VAN win probability +7.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 5VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 9:50UK 4th & 17 at VAN 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snapGo for it78.9%−0.115% to convertField goal79.0%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q2 2:33VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snapGo for it29.3%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%average punt
- Q2 1:41UK 4th & 10 at UK 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snapGo for it68.0%−1.627% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.5%average punt
- Q3 7:51VAN 4th & 4 at UK 31, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snapGo for it54.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call52.9%−1.254% to makePunt51.0%−3.0average punt
- Q3 5:19UK 4th & 1 at VAN 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.7%71% to convertField goal35.6%−4.142% to makePunt35.1%−4.6average punt
- Q3 1:50UK 4th & 5 at VAN 5, down 10Close callWent for it · 34.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.2%−0.233% to convertField goal33.4%92% to makePunt21.3%−12.1average punt
- Q4 8:47VAN 4th & 16 at UK 32, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.1% before the snapGo for it77.5%−2.816% to convertField goalTheir call80.2%51% to makePunt78.4%−1.8average punt
- Q4 2:38VAN 4th & 24 at VAN 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snapGo for it83.2%−4.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.3%average punt
- Q4 1:06UK 4th & 21 at UK 41, down 7Close callWent for it · 13.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.7%−0.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:50VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.5%97% to makeGo for two24.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:42UK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.5%97% to makeGo for two74.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:13VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.6%97% to makeGo for two41.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:02UK Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick24.1%−0.497% to makeGo for twoTheir call24.4%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1PUNT12 plays · 31 yds · 5:1082% → 80%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
81.1%
(13:26) WIMSATT, Gavin pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BROWN, Barion thrown to the VANDY16, clock 13:19. PENALTY VANDY Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Kolbey enforced 15 yards to the VANDY48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
80.8%
(11:26) BROWN, Barion rush to the right for a gain of 12 yards to the VANDY25 (HIGHT, Martel), clock 11:19. PENALTY UK Holding on MINCEY, Gerald enforced 10 yards from the VANDY37 to the VANDY47 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-15
80.5%
Kentucky Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dane Key) to the VAN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2TD9 plays · 97 yds · 4:5220% → 25%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
79.6%
(08:41) PAVIA, Diego pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SHERRILL, Junior thrown to the VANDY37; QB hurried by DUMAS-JOHNSON, Jamon, clock 08:33. PENALTY UK Roughing the Passer on DUMAS-JOHNSON, Jamon enforced 15 yards from the VANDY15 to the VANDY30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
74.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to AJ Newberry for 20 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD13 plays · 78 yds · 6:0276% → 78%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
75.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 5 yds to the UK 27Similar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
75.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 8 yds to the UK 44Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+15
75.4%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (Glenn Seabrooks III) to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
75.0%
(01:33) BROWN, Barion rush to the right for no gain to the VANDY25 (WRIGHT, De'Rickey;KOLLIE, Prince), clock 01:27. PENALTY Before the snap, UK Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the VANDY25 to the VANDY30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+8
74.4%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 8 yds to the VAN 22Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
74.5%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 8 yds to the VAN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4INT5 plays · 30 yds · 2:5924% → 27%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
75.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the VAN 42Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+10
73.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 10 yds to the UK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
73.2%
Diego Pavia pass intercepted D'Eryk Jackson return for 1 yd to the UK 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FUMBLE10 plays · 30 yds · 3:3876% → 77%
Q2 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+10
75.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 10 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
76.7%
(09:16) QB Keeper WIMSATT, Gavin rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UK49 (LONGWELL, Bryan;THOMAS, De'Marion), clock 09:10. PENALTY UK Holding on COX, Marques enforced 10 yards from the UK47 to the UK37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 20
OWN 37
+9
75.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 9 yds to the UK 46Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+20
75.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 20 yds to the VAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-2
76.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for a loss of 2 yards Dane Key fumbled, recovered by VAN Nicholas Rinaldi N. Rinaldi return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 10 yds · 4:1329% → 30%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
68.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 4 yds to the VAN 49Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-12
68.0%
Diego Pavia sacked by Jamon Dumas-Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the VAN 37Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 18
OWN 37
+7
70.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 7 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 11
OWN 44
+44
70.5%
Jesse Mirco punt for 44 yds , Ja'Mori Maclin returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 0:4372% → 70%
Q2 1:41
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
69.9%
Aidan Laros punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD7 plays · 60 yds · 1:2233% → 49%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
67.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
50
+4
65.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 4 yds to the UK 46Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+21
64.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 21 yds to the UK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+18
51.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
57.9%
(00:11) [NH] Kneel down by TEAM at UK33 (team loss of 2), clock 00:02.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10FG12 plays · 44 yds · 7:0944% → 56%
UKDrive 11DOWNS13 plays · 51 yds · 5:5245% → 35%
Q3 6:32
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
45.4%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 2 yds to the VAN 39Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+7
41.7%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (CJ Taylor) to the VAN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
34.8%
Wilson Berry pass intercepted De'Rickey Wright return for 9 yds to the VAN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12FG12 plays · 58 yds · 8:0366% → 90%
Q3 0:20
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+5
33.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 5 yds to the VAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-1
19.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 27Similar
Q4 9:37
3RD & 11
OPP 27
-5
18.0%
Diego Pavia sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4515% → 36%
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+15
14.4%
(08:14) VANDAGRIFF, Brock sacked for a loss of 12 yards at the UK27 (OUATTARA, Yilanan), clock 08:09. PENALTY VANDY Horse Collar Tackle on OUATTARA, Yilanan enforced 15 yards from the UK39 to the VANDY46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
16.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 10 yds to the VAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
15.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 14 yds to the VAN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
35.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 4:2478% → 87%
Q4 5:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
17.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 16 yds to the VAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-15
14.6%
Diego Pavia sacked by D'Eryk Jackson for a loss of 15 yards to the VAN 31Similar
Q4 2:38
4TH & 24
OWN 31
+16
13.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 45 yds , Barion Brown returns for 16 yds to the UK 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15DOWNS9 plays · 21 yds · 1:2020% → 13%
Q4 2:06
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+23
18.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 23 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
20.9%
(02:00) VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass to the right complete for 0 yards to SUMO-KARNGBAYE, Demie caught at the VANDY48 and advanced to the VANDY48 (COWAN, Bryce), out of bounds, clock 01:55. PENALTY UK Holding on MINCEY, Gerald enforced 10 yards from the VANDY48 to the UK42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 20
OWN 42
-2
16.8%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Nicholas Rinaldi for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 40Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 22
OWN 40
-10
14.6%
(01:35) VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass short to the left complete for 12 yards to BROWN, Barion caught at the UK41 and advanced to the VANDY48 (FONTENETTE, Randon), clock 01:23. PENALTY UK Holding on COX, Marques enforced 10 yards from the UK40 to the UK30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 32
OWN 30
+11
13.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 11 yds to the UK 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16END OF 4TH QUARTER4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3895% → 95%
Q4 0:55
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-1
4.9%
(00:55) Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at UK43 (team loss of 1), clock 00:49.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:02
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 22 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+17.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:02
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 30
-13.4
TD · Q2 0:13
Diego Pavia pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
-12.7