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MSST

Mississippi State 31 at Georgia 41

UGA
2024 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2024 · Sanford Stadium
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Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-4.8UGA 91.9%Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete toDavon Booth for 2 yds for a TD (KyleFerrie KICK)AWAY 24 - HOME 34 · Q3 2:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:40 · Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+23.9Home team on offense+10.6Score differential+3.9Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:56: Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:27: Johnnie Daniels run for 19 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +1.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:40: Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +4.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:33: Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:47: Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 35 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +5.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MSST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:39MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:05MSST 4th & 13 at UGA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:09UGA 4th & 3 at MSST 27, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:34MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:13MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:06UGA 4th & 4 at MSST 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:51UGA 4th & 15 at MSST 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:50MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:40MSST 4th & 2 at UGA 2, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−4.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:42UGA 4th & 11 at UGA 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:59MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:33UGA 4th & 1 at MSST 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−3.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:12MSST 4th & 1 at UGA 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:13UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:46MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:32UGA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:56UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:48UGA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:27MSST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:40MSST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:33UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:47MSST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.2%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 56 yds, downed at the UGA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1098% → 98%
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
98.2%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
98.1%
Carson Beck pass intercepted Brice Pollock return for no gain to the UGA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
98.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the UGA 24Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 24
-5
98.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for a loss of 5 yards to the UGA 29Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 13
OPP 29
0
98.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 13
OPP 29
+47
98.0%
Kyle Ferrie 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:5698% → 97%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
98.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 10 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
98.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 3 yds Lawson Luckie fumbled, recovered by UGASimilar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+7
98.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 7 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
98.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 7 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+2
98.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
98.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
98.0%
Branson Robinson run for 6 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+1
98.0%
Branson Robinson run for 1 yd to the MSST 27Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
98.0%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
97.3%
Peyton Woodring 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:353% → 3%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.3%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
97.0%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
97.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+6
97.0%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 55 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 6 yds to the UGA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:2197% → 97%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
97.0%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+15
97.0%
Mississippi State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Corey Ellington) to the UGA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
97.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 6 yds to the UGA 45Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+26
97.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 26 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
97.1%
Nate Frazier run for 4 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
97.1%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+20
97.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to London Humphreys for 20 yds to the MSST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
97.1%
Branson Robinson run for 5 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:003% → 3%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.9%
Kevin Coleman Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
96.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
96.9%
Mississippi State Penalty, Illegal Snap on MINER, Ethan enforced (-5 Yards) to the MSST 21Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
97.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 4 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q1 1:13
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:2297% → 96%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
96.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 5 yds to the UGA 39Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+14
96.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 14 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
97.0%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
96.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 5 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+15
96.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 15 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
96.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 7 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-10
96.7%
ETIENNE, Trevor rush to the right for a gain of 20 yards to the MSU0, TOUCHDOWN UGA, score nullified by penalty, clock 14:06 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UGA Holding on FREELING, Monroe enforced 10 yards from the MSU20 to the MSU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+5
96.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Branson Robinson for 5 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+4
96.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 4 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+11
96.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 11 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
96.7%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 12Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-3
96.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 15Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
96.5%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
95.9%
Peyton Woodring 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:054% → 6%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
96.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 23Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+72
96.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 72 yds to the UGA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
95.6%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the UGA 4Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
95.3%
VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass short to the left complete for 4 yards to COLEMAN JR., Kevin caught at the UGA0 and advanced to the UGA0, TOUCHDOWN MSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 08:52 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on BURNSIDE, Braylon enforced 15 yards to the UGA19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
-5
95.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UGA 24Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+24
93.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 24 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1494% → 96%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
94.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 23 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
94.8%
BECK, Carson pass to the left incomplete intended for LOVETT, Dominic thrown to the MSU40. PENALTY Before the snap, UGA Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the UGA48 to the UGA43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+12
94.5%
Nate Frazier run for 12 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+9
94.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 9 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
94.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 5 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+31
95.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 31 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:425% → 5%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
95.7%
VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass to the right incomplete dropped by BOOTH, Davon thrown to the MSU24. PENALTY UGA Roughing the Passer on WILSON II, Damon enforced 15 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.2%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 40Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.3%
Mario Craver run for 2 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
95.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
95.3%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5495% → 98%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+55
95.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 55 yds to the MSST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
95.4%
Nate Frazier run for 4 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+6
95.4%
Nate Frazier run for 6 yds to the MSST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
95.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 18Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+17
95.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 17 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13INT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:293% → 3%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
96.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 6 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
96.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
96.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 11 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
96.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
96.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass intercepted KJ Bolden return for no gain to the UGA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:2798% → 97%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
97.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 18 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 5 yds to the UGA 42Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
97.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 10 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
96.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 11 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+55
96.8%
Peyton Woodring 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1297% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 4 yds to the UGA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+29
97.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ben Yurosek for 29 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
98.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 42 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:212% → 4%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
98.2%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 27Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
98.3%
VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass to the right incomplete intended for TRAORE, Seydou thrown to the MSU35. PENALTY UGA Pass Interference on COLE, Chris enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the MSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
98.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 19 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
98.1%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the UGA 42Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
98.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 2 yds to the UGA 40Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
98.1%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Van Buren Jr.) to the UGA 45Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+15
98.2%
VAN BUREN JR., Michael sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the MSU48 (CHAMBLISS, Chaz). PENALTY UGA Face mask on CHAMBLISS, Chaz enforced 15 yards from the UGA45 to the UGA30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
98.0%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the UGA 28Similar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+9
97.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 9 yds to the UGA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
96.2%
Johnnie Daniels run for 19 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17INT
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:5198% → 98%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
97.6%
Anthony Evans III run for 52 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
97.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 7 yds to the MSST 16Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+5
97.8%
Nate Frazier run for 5 yds to the MSST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
97.8%
Carson Beck pass intercepted, touchback. DeAgo Brumfield return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:563% → 8%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
97.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 13 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+42
96.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 42 yds to the UGA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.4%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the UGA 25Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+18
96.6%
Davon Booth run for 18 yds to the UGA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
96.4%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the UGA 3Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
96.4%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the UGA 2Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for no gain to the UGA 2Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5893% → 92%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the UGA 27Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
93.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 19 yds to the UGA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
93.7%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
93.5%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 45Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
93.0%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
92.4%
Brett Thorson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:017% → 7%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
93.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+14
93.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 14 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
92.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
93.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 8 yds to the MSST 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+11
92.7%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 11 yds to the UGA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
91.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Luke Work) to the MSST 49Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+7
92.2%
Johnnie Daniels run for 7 yds to the UGA 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-10
91.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Grant Jackson) to the MSST 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 48
0
92.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 48
0
93.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
92.7%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 33 yds, downed at the UGA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21TD
18 plays · 81 yds · 7:2692% → 99%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
92.4%
Nate Frazier run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 17Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+8
92.2%
Carson Beck run for 8 yds to the UGA 25Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+5
92.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 5 yds to the UGA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
92.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to London Humphreys for 5 yds to the UGA 35Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
92.7%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+10
92.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 10 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
93.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 9 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+6
93.2%
Nate Frazier run for 6 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
93.2%
Nate Frazier run for 5 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+10
93.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 10 yds to the MSST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
93.3%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the MSST 25Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+21
93.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 21 yds to the MSST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
94.7%
Nate Frazier run for 2 yds to the MSST 2Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.4%
Nate Frazier run for 1 yd to the MSST 1Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.2%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:462% → 8%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
98.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 18 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
98.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 6 yds to the MSST 49Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
98.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+3
98.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 3 yds to the UGA 48Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+11
98.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 11 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
97.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds to the UGA 35Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
97.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+35
92.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 35 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:4698% → 98%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
98.3%
Kneel down by TEAM at MSU50 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 12
50
-1
98.2%
Kneel down by TEAM at UGA49 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 49
-1
98.2%
Kneel down by TEAM at UGA48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:47
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 35 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q3 2:40
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Davon Booth for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-4.8
TD · Q4 3:33
Trevor Etienne run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com