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ALA

Alabama 35 at Vanderbilt 40

VAN
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:10: Brock Taylor 51 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +12.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:53: Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 36 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +22.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:01: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 58 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +22.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 10:35: Brock Taylor 33 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +12.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:46: Ryan Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK) — ALA win probability +28.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 8:12ALA 4th & 13 at ALA 11, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 4:10VAN 4th & 14 at ALA 32, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:03VAN 4th & 13 at ALA 42, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−2.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−1.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  4. Q3 6:15VAN 4th & 9 at midfield, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  5. Q3 5:06ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 3, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−4.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:53VAN 4th & 1 at ALA 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−5.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−5.9
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:35VAN 4th & 6 at ALA 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−19.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 2:46ALA 4th & 1 at VAN 2, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−1.0
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:46VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:03VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:22ALA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:32VAN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:25ALA Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:01ALA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:53VAN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:01ALA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:07VAN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:46ALA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 6:145% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
5.4%
AJ Newberry run for 8 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
5.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds to the VAN 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-2
5.4%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+14
5.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to AJ Newberry for 14 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
5.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 13 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
5.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 17 yds to the ALA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
5.4%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the ALA 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
5.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the ALA 7Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
8.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:4392% → 91%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.1%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
8.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-29
9.2%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted Randon Fontenette return for 29 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:4191% → 90%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
9.1%
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 24Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+46
9.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 46 yds to the VAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
8.8%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
8.8%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the VAN 26Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+17
8.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 17 yds to the VAN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
8.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the VAN 8Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
9.6%
Jam Miller run for 8 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 9:5011% → 29%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
10.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 6 yds to the VAN 31Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
10.6%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 29Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
10.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 12 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
10.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 42Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+1
10.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 43Similar
Q1 4:22
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+4
10.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+6
13.2%
Alabama Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Malachi Moore) to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
13.9%
Nate Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
14.0%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+15
13.8%
Alabama Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jihaad Campbell) to the ALA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
14.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 23
0
14.1%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the ALA 23Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
14.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 6 yds to the ALA 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
14.1%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the ALA 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
13.8%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the ALA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
19.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 2Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
19.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the ALA 1Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1274% → 72%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
25.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-3
26.0%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Nicholas Rinaldi for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 11Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 13
OWN 11
0
26.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 13
OWN 11
0
28.3%
James Burnip punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:0230% → 42%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
30.3%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the VAN 43Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+12
30.2%
Diego Pavia run for 12 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
30.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 9 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+8
30.6%
AJ Newberry run for 8 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
30.6%
AJ Newberry run for 1 yd to the ALA 27Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
30.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-5
30.0%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 14
OPP 32
0
29.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+51
41.8%
Brock Taylor 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 2:4162% → 74%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
37.8%
Justice Haynes run for 13 yds to the ALA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
37.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 8 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-3
35.7%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
37.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
50
+9
38.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 9 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+2
37.5%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
37.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 4 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+32
37.0%
Jam Miller run for 32 yds to the VAN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.4%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 1:1636% → 38%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
37.4%
AJ Newberry run for 3 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+31
36.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 31 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
39.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
39.1%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the ALA 44Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+1
38.4%
AJ Newberry run for 1 yd to the ALA 43Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+1
40.5%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the ALA 42Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
37.7%
Jesse Mirco punt for 30 yds, downed at the ALA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
37.8%
[NH] Kneel down by MILROE, Jalen at UA10 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 2:5168% → 77%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
32.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 7 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+8
31.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 8 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
31.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 13 yds to the VAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
30.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 11 yds to the VAN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
23.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 14 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 5:4628% → 35%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
27.9%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 4 yards to the VAN 21Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
27.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the VAN 26Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
26.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 12 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
29.0%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
29.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 40Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+9
27.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 9 yds to the VAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
30.5%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-1
30.7%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 9
50
0
28.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 9
50
0
34.5%
Jesse Mirco punt for 46 yds, downed at the ALA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0965% → 61%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
34.7%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 5Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
35.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 9
OWN 5
-49
36.3%
Alabama Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Jalen Milroe) to the ALA 3Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 11
OWN 3
-2
38.9%
James Burnip punt for 40 yds , Martel Hight returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 2:1341% → 63%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
41.0%
Chase Gillespie run for 3 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
40.8%
Chase Gillespie run for 1 yd to the ALA 41Similar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+5
40.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 5 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+36
62.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 36 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5238% → 62%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
61.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Cole Adams for 14 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
59.7%
Germie Bernard run for 6 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
58.8%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-5
60.7%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Parker Brailsford) to the ALA 42Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+58
37.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 58 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 5:2642% → 66%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+33
43.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 33 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
48.8%
AJ Newberry run for 1 yd to the ALA 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+8
48.4%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+12
48.0%
AJ Newberry run for 12 yds to the ALA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
49.8%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
49.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the ALA 12Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 12
-10
55.4%
HOSKINS, Richie rush to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the UA0, TOUCHDOWN VANDY, score nullified by penalty, clock 11:22 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY VANDY Holding on MITCHELL, Chase enforced 10 yards from the UA12 to the UA22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+7
53.2%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the ALA 15Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
65.9%
Brock Taylor 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:5945% → 51%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
54.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 20 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
50.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 16 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-8
48.8%
Jalen Milroe sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the VAN 47 Jalen Milroe fumbled, recovered by VAN Yilanan Ouattara , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 4:2971% → 95%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
70.9%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+3
71.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+11
69.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 11 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
72.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 20 yds to the ALA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
83.8%
Junior Sherrill run for 8 yds to the ALA 6Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 2
OPP 6
0
83.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the ALA 6Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
95.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 6 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:218% → 36%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 5 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+47
90.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 47 yds to the VAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
88.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 9 yds to the VAN 14Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
88.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Cole Adams for 3 yds to the VAN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
88.5%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the VAN 11Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
88.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+9
92.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 9 yds to the VAN 2Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
64.5%
Ryan Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19END OF GAME
12 plays · 54 yds · 2:3782% → 96%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
82.1%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 16Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+19
90.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 19 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
91.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 13 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
93.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
93.7%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
93.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at UA42 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+15
93.6%
Alabama Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malachi Moore) to the ALA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
95.6%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:46
Ryan Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-28.2
TD · Q3 1:01
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 58 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-22.9
TD · Q3 2:53
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 36 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+22.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com