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MISS

Ole Miss 27 at South Carolina 3

SC
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:19 · LaNorris Sellers sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 182Home team on offense−45.2Pregame prior−4.9Score differential−26.8Garbage-time factor−15.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−12.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:57: JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +1.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:08: Alex Herrera 40 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +4.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 10:08: Timeout South Carolina, clock 10:08 — SC win probability +1.7 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 7:16: Caden Davis 24 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +8.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:31: JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +5.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:54MISS 4th & 13 at MISS 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:12SC 4th & 1 at SC 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:26SC 4th & 1 at SC 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:02MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:46SC 4th & 3 at MISS 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:57MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.0%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:08SC 4th & 15 at MISS 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:16MISS 4th & 7 at SC 7, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:13SC 4th & 11 at SC 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:19MISS 4th & 3 at SC 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:46SC 4th & 3 at SC 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:18SC 4th & 4 at MISS 19, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.7%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:56MISS 4th & 5 at SC 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:52SC 4th & 4 at MISS 39, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:19MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 2, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:25SC 4th & 9 at MISS 29, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:19SC 4th & 4 at MISS 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:32MISS 4th & 1 at SC 35, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:12MISS 4th & 10 at SC 32, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:12MISS 4th & 10 at SC 32, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:36MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:57MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:31MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:0281% → 80%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
19.4%
(14:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass complete short left to Watkins,Jordan caught at OLE33, for 9 yards to the OLE36 (Kilgore,Jalon), out of bounds PENALTY OLE Holding (Pettus,Micah) 10 yards from OLE27 to OLE17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
19.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+5
19.6%
(14:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete deep left to Wells Jr.,Antwane thrown to OLE38 PENALTY USC Offside (Kennard,Kyle) 5 yards from OLE17 to OLE22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
19.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
19.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Juju McDowell at the SC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3820% → 21%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
19.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Joshua Simon for 3 yds to the SC 30Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+1
19.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the SC 31Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+5
20.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the SC 36Similar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
20.5%
Maurice Brown II run for no gain to the SC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:2780% → 80%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
20.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 2 yds to the SC 34Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+20
20.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 20 yds to the SC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
20.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the SC 13Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+10
20.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the SC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:2120% → 21%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
20.2%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Joshua Simon for 17 yds to the SC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
20.6%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass intercepted by Saunders Jr.,John at OLE33 Saunders Jr.,John return 14 yards to the OLE47 (Simon,Joshua) PENALTY OLE Pass Interference (Canady,Jadon) 15 yards from USC42 to OLE43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
20.9%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the MISS 43Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
21.0%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the MISS 41 Robby Ashford fumbled, recovered by MISS Walter NolenSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
21.0%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the MISS 41 Robby Ashford fumbled, recovered by MISS Walter NolenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 2:5480% → 82%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
20.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 29 yds to the SC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
20.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the SC 30Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
20.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 10 yds to the SC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
20.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the SC 17Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+13
20.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 13 yds to the SC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
20.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 3 yds to the SC 1Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the SC 1Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.2%
JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2318% → 18%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.6%
LaNorris Sellers run for 5 yds to the SC 30Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
17.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
17.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 4 yds to the SC 34Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
17.5%
Kai Kroeger punt for 47 yds , Micah Davis returns for 3 yds to the MISS 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1482% → 81%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
18.4%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-10
18.5%
(03:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass complete short left to Lee,Cayden caught at OLE32, for 12 yards to the OLE32 (Kilgore,Jalon), out of bounds PENALTY OLE Holding (Pounds,Diego) 10 yards from OLE20 to OLE10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 22
OWN 10
+9
18.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 9 yds Tre Harris fumbled, recovered by MISSSimilar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+5
18.5%
(03:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete deep right to Wright,Dae'Quan thrown to OLE43 PENALTY USC Offside (Stewart,Dylan) 5 yards from OLE19 to OLE24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
18.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+4
18.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 53 yds , Juju McDowell returns for 4 yds to the SC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:0717% → 16%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
16.6%
(03:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass complete short left to Simon,Joshua caught at USC29, for 19 yards to the USC46 (Amos,Trey) PENALTY USC Personal Foul offsetting OLE Pass Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
16.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the SC 29Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+6
16.2%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the SC 35Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+5
16.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the SC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
16.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 7 yds to the SC 47Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
16.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+16
16.7%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Mazeo Bennett Jr. for 16 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
16.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
17.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+2
16.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-10
16.3%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Walter Nolen for a loss of 10 yards to the MISS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4583% → 83%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
17.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
17.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+2
17.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+1
17.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:4116% → 20%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+30
15.5%
LaNorris Sellers run for 30 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
15.7%
LaNorris Sellers run for 3 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 13
OPP 20
-2
15.6%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by TJ Dottery for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 22Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 15
OPP 22
0
14.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+40
19.6%
Alex Herrera 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 2:4879% → 86%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
20.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 9 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+57
20.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 57 yds to the SC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
20.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the SC 1Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
20.8%
PENALTY OLE False Start (Kalepo,Nate) 5 yards from USC01 to USC06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
21.5%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the SC 1Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.6%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the SC 2Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
21.9%
PENALTY OLE Delay Of Game 5 yards from USC02 to USC07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
13.8%
Caden Davis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:5713% → 12%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the SC 30Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
12.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the SC 30Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-15
12.2%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass complete short left to Simon,Joshua caught at USC38, for 8 yards to the USC38, End Of Play PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Harbor,Nyck) 15 yards from USC30 to USC15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+9
12.7%
LaNorris Sellers run for 9 yds to the SC 24Similar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
11.7%
Kai Kroeger punt for 53 yds , Micah Davis returns for 7 yds to the MISS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4586% → 87%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
13.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
13.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 15 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
12.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 5
50
+2
12.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 2 yds to the SC 48Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
12.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
13.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jalon Kilgore at the SC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:2613% → 10%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
12.9%
Juju McDowell run for 4 yds to the SC 10Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 6
OWN 10
-5
12.4%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris rush left for 3 yards gain to the USC13 (Perkins,Suntarine; Nolen,Walter), out of bounds PENALTY USC Holding (Bell,Kamaar) 5 yards from USC10 to USC05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+3
12.4%
Juju McDowell run for 3 yds to the SC 8Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+5
10.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Jared Brown for 5 yds to the SC 13Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 3
OWN 13
0
10.3%
Kai Kroeger punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 1:0889% → 95%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
11.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the SC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
10.7%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson sacked for loss of 7 yards to the OLE46 (Kennard,Kyle) PENALTY OLE Holding (Pettus,Micah) 10 yards from USC47 to OLE43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+10
10.9%
Matt Jones run for 10 yds to the SC 47Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
10.6%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the SC 43Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+41
10.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 41 yds to the SC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
10.9%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the SC 1Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.2%
JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16END OF HALF
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:249% → 9%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.1%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Joshua Simon for 6 yds to the SC 31Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
8.2%
LaNorris Sellers run for 5 yds to the SC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
9.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-7
9.2%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 7 yards to the SC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17MISSED FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:3410% → 9%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 9 yds to the SC 34Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
10.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the SC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
10.5%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Joshua Simon for 6 yds to the SC 44Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+7
10.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
10.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+10
10.4%
LaNorris Sellers run for 10 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
10.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 11 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
10.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 2 yds to the MISS 23Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
10.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Joshua Simon for 5 yds to the MISS 18Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+1
9.6%
LaNorris Sellers run for 1 yd to the MISS 19Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+38
9.3%
Alex Herrera 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 80 yds · 0:5795% → 96%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
5.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
5.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+13
5.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 13 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST down South Carolina Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
4.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+66
4.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 66 yds Antwane Wells Jr. fumbled, recovered by SCSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 19 yds · 3:537% → 4%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.5%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
6.5%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+13
6.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 13 yds to the SC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
6.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the SC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
6.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the SC 44Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-1
6.5%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Walter Nolen for a loss of 1 yard to the SC 43Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+17
4.8%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Vandrevius Jacobs for 17 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
5.2%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 2 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
5.2%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-15
5.1%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass complete short left to Hunt,Brady caught at OLE34, for 5 yards to the OLE33 (Washington,Trey; Amos,Trey) PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Bennett Jr.,Mazeo) 15 yards from OLE38 to USC47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 23
OWN 47
-8
4.5%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 8 yards to the SC 39Similar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 31
OWN 39
0
4.2%
Kai Kroeger punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 2:1397% → 98%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
3.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
3.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
2.9%
South Carolina Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dylan Stewart) to the MISS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
2.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+15
2.6%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete deep right to Wells Jr.,Antwane thrown to USC33 PENALTY USC Pass Interference (Collier,Judge) 15 yards from OLE39 to USC46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
2.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 14 yds to the SC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
2.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
2.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+5
2.4%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete deep right to Wells Jr.,Antwane thrown to USC00 PENALTY USC Offside (Edmond,Gilber) 5 yards from USC32 to USC27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
1.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
2.1%
Caden Davis 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21INT
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:373% → 2%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
3.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 10 yds to the SC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
3.0%
Juju McDowell run for 4 yds to the SC 39Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+16
3.0%
LaNorris Sellers run for 16 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
2.8%
Juju McDowell run for 3 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+5
2.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 5 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
2.9%
Juju McDowell run for 2 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+15
2.4%
LaNorris Sellers run for 15 yds to the MISS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
2.6%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
2.5%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+13
2.3%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Mazeo Bennett Jr. for 13 yds to the MISS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
2.5%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
2.5%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 5 yds to the MISS 6Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
2.4%
LaNorris Sellers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3999% → 99%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
1.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MISS 1Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+5
1.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MISS 6 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matt Jones) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+4
1.3%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the MISS 2Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
1.2%
Fraser Masin punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 1:541% → 1%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
1.0%
Jawarn Howell run for 8 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
1.0%
Jawarn Howell run for 4 yds to the MISS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
1.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Mazeo Bennett Jr. for 12 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
1.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass complete to Nyck Harbor for 1 yd to the MISS 29Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
1.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
1.0%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 9
OPP 29
0
0.9%
LaNorris Sellers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+5
0.9%
(08:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Sellers,LaNorris pass incomplete deep right to Campbell,Dalevon thrown to OLE00 PENALTY OLE Offside 5 yards from OLE29 to OLE24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 4
OPP 24
-3
0.7%
LaNorris Sellers sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 41 yds · 6:5999% → 100%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
0.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 19 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
0.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 6
50
-5
0.6%
PENALTY OLE False Start (McIntyre,Reece) 5 yards from OLE50 to OLE45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+11
0.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 11 yds to the SC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
0.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the SC 41Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
0.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the SC 35Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
0.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the SC 35Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
0.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the SC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
0.3%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the SC 33Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+2
0.3%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the SC 31Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+1
0.2%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the SC 32Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
0.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
0.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 7 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
0.3%
Jawarn Howell run for 1 yd to the SC 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
0.2%
Jawarn Howell run for 6 yds to the SC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 7:16
Caden Davis 24 yd FG GOOD
-8.1
TD · Q2 0:31
JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
-5.7
FG · Q2 10:08
Alex Herrera 40 yd FG GOOD
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com