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TENN

Tennessee 14 at Arkansas 19

ARK
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+7ARK 45.3%Matthew Shipley 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 13 · Q4 12:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:06 · Matthew Shipley 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior−8.3Home team on offense+0.7Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:33: Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +12.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:19: Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +11.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:38: Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK) — ARK win probability +17.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:00: Malachi Singleton pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 13 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST down — ARK win probability +11.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 1:17: Malachi Singleton run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ARK win probability +35.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 8:14ARK 4th & 1 at TENN 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.4%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:48ARK 4th & 1 at TENN 1, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:28TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:42ARK 4th & 1 at TENN 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.0%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:15TENN 4th & 10 at ARK 37, down 3
    Close callPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    69.5%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:47ARK 4th & 1 at TENN 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−1.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:58TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:51ARK 4th & 6 at TENN 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:01TENN 4th & 7 at ARK 42, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−1.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    60.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:28ARK 4th & 16 at ARK 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:25TENN 4th & 5 at ARK 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−3.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:06ARK 4th & 5 at TENN 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−13.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:49TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−5.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:41ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 35, down 1
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:36TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:05ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 14, down 1
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:20TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 21, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−8.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00TENN 4th & 5 at ARK 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−15.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−9.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 12:33TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:19TENN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:38ARK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:17ARK Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    82.1%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FG
19 plays · 74 yds · 9:0216% → 21%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
16.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ja'Quinden Jackson for 7 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
16.3%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the ARK 33Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
16.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
16.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the ARK 35Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
17.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the ARK 36Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+23
17.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 23 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
18.0%
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+16
18.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 16 yds Luke Hasz fumbled, forced by Will Brooks, recovered by ARKSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
18.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 8 yds to the TENN 13Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 2
OPP 13
0
19.1%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the TENN 13Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+1
19.3%
Taylen Green run for 1 yd to the TENN 12Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+9
19.4%
Braylen Russell run for 9 yds to the TENN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
20.1%
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the TENN 2Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
20.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the TENN 1Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-4
20.7%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the TENN 5Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
20.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jordan Anthony for 4 yds to the TENN 1Similar
Q1 5:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+20
21.3%
Kyle Ramsey 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 2:1279% → 76%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
21.4%
Iamaleava, Nico pass complete to Gibson III, Rickey for 15 yards to the TENN40, PENALTY TENN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TENN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
21.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 24Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
21.9%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 19Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
22.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 5 yds to the TENN 24Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-4
22.8%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Eric Gregory for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 20Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
23.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:4023% → 25%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
22.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 13 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
23.7%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 38Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+19
23.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 19 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
24.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
24.8%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
24.7%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
24.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for no gain to the TENN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:2076% → 73%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
24.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+10
24.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 10 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
23.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the ARK 49Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
23.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 5 yds to the ARK 44Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+7
23.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
24.0%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Eric Gregory and Stephen Dix Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 42Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+4
25.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+1
25.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the ARK 37Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
26.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARK 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5DOWNS
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:2826% → 33%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
26.2%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the ARK 3Similar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 13
OWN 3
-2
26.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 1Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 15
OWN 1
0
26.4%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 15
OWN 1
+26
26.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ja'Quinden Jackson for 26 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
27.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 26Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+2
27.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+11
27.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 11 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
29.6%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+10
29.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 10 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
31.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 22 yds to the TENN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
33.1%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Isaiah SategnaSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
33.1%
Braylen Russell run for 8 yds to the TENN 21Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
33.0%
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the TENN 20Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 1
OPP 20
0
32.5%
Taylen Green run for no gain to the TENN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3969% → 65%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
31.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for no gain to the TENN 20Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
32.0%
DeSean Bishop run for 2 yds to the TENN 22Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-7
33.3%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Cameron Ball for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 15Similar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+8
34.8%
Jackson Ross punt for 50 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for 8 yds to the ARK 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:0035% → 36%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
35.2%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
34.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 11 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
36.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 7 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
37.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+7
36.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 7 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
38.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the TENN 24Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-2
39.2%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 26Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
38.0%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
36.4%
Kyle Ramsey 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8DOWNS
13 plays · 32 yds · 1:2965% → 61%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
35.4%
Nico Iamaleava run for 2 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
35.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+6
36.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 6 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
35.3%
Nico Iamaleava run for 2 yds to the TENN 38 Nico Iamaleava fumbled, recovered by TENN Nico IamaleavaSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+17
34.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 17 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
32.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Miles Kitselman for 7 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
32.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-15
33.0%
Iamaleava, Nico pass incomplete to White, Squirrel, PENALTY TENN face mask 15 yards to the TENN47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 18
OWN 47
+11
36.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 11 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
38.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
40.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2262% → 75%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 5 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
37.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 4 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
37.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
38.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 6 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
36.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+53
38.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 53 yds to the ARK 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
25.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4929% → 28%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
29.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 24Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
29.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 3 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
28.8%
Taylen Green sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 19Similar
Q3 10:28
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
28.4%
Devin Bale punt for 41 yds, downed at the TENN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 1:5673% → 85%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
26.8%
Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
26.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+11
27.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 11 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
26.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 2 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST down Arkansas Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ARK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
26.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the ARK 25Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+13
26.3%
Iamaleava, Nico pass incomplete to McCoy, Bru, PENALTY ARK roughing passer 13 yards to the ARK12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TENN.Similar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
26.3%
Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the ARK 4Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
14.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1718% → 38%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
17.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 15 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
18.9%
Braylen Russell run for 4 yds to the ARK 44Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+26
19.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 26 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
21.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 17 yds to the TENN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
21.7%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the TENN 10Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
21.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the TENN 5Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+3
20.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the TENN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5972% → 73%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
27.6%
DeSean Bishop run for 13 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
26.1%
Nico Iamaleava run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
50
+4
24.8%
DeSean Bishop run for 4 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-3
24.8%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Larry Worth III and Landon Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the ARK 49Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+4
25.2%
Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
26.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0832% → 45%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
31.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 7 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
32.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the ARK 27Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+1
31.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the ARK 28Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+5
30.7%
Bale, Devin punt 49 yards to the TENN23, fair catch by White, Squirrel, PENALTY TENN running into kicker 5 yards to the ARK33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARK.Similar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
33.0%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+22
33.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 22 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+37
37.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 30 yds to the TENN 15 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Roughing Passer (7 Yards) to the TENN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
40.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the TENN 5Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
42.2%
Jackson, Ja'Quinden rush for 3 yards to the TENN2, PENALTY TENN offside 3 yards to the TENN2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the TENN 2Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
38.3%
Malachi Singleton run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 5 Malachi Singleton fumbled, recovered by ARK Malachi SingletonSimilar
Q4 12:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
45.3%
Matthew Shipley 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:1261% → 58%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
38.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 7 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
38.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 40Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
36.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
38.0%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 7
OWN 40
-5
41.3%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 35Similar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
42.5%
Jackson Ross punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARK 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0844% → 43%
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
43.8%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARK 23Similar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 15
OWN 23
0
42.7%
Taylen Green pass incomplete to Ja'Quinden JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 15
OWN 23
-1
42.6%
Malachi Singleton sacked by Christian Harrison and Daevin Hobbs for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 22Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 16
OWN 22
-5
40.8%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARK 17Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 21
OWN 17
+18
41.0%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 18 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
42.9%
Devin Bale punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:0560% → 62%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
39.7%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 15Similar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+4
40.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 19Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+15
40.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 15 yds to the TENN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
39.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+4
37.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 42Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+5
35.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 5 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
34.6%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 42Similar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+8
36.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
50
0
33.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.Similar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 7
50
+4
34.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 3
OPP 46
-5
36.2%
Tennessee Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TENN 49Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
38.2%
Jackson Ross punt for 42 yds, downed at the ARK 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2346% → 43%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
45.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the ARK 9Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
45.1%
Malachi Singleton run for 5 yds to the ARK 14Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
44.2%
Malachi Singleton pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
42.7%
Devin Bale punt for 66 yds, downed at the TENN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3862% → 60%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
37.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the TENN 21Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
38.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
38.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Miles KitselmanSimilar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+5
40.4%
Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for 5 yds to the ARK 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:4352% → 95%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
52.2%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 13 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
54.6%
Braylen Russell run for 24 yds to the TENN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
59.4%
Braylen Russell run for 11 yds to the TENN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
94.8%
Malachi Singleton run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:1116% → 13%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.0%
Nico Iamaleava run for 8 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+42
83.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 42 yds to the ARK 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
73.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Miles KitselmanSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
75.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the ARK 20Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
80.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+4
86.8%
Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the ARK 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:17
Malachi Singleton run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+35.4
TD · Q3 4:38
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
+17.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com