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MSST

Mississippi State 13 at Texas 35

TEX
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:39 · punt blocked by Zakari Tillman blocked by Zakari Tillman
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Pregame prior+42.9Home team on offense+2.9Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:24: Kyle Ferrie 45 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +0.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 0:29: Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 49 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: Arch Manning run for 1 yd for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +3.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:30: Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:12: Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +3.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:29MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56MSST 4th & 7 at TEX 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:24MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:39TEX 4th & 15 at TEX 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:24MSST 4th & 11 at TEX 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:33TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:56MSST 4th & 6 at TEX 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:15TEX 4th & 3 at MSST 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    91.3%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:34MSST 4th & 27 at MSST 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:48MSST 4th & 20 at MSST 25, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:16MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 44, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MSST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 6:06TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:29TEX Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:00TEX Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:30TEX Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:12MSST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:03TEX Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1DOWNS
14 plays · 47 yds · 7:021% → 2%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.8%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
98.8%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
98.7%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 34Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
98.7%
Davon Booth run for 8 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.6%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 42Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
98.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 7 yds to the MSST 49Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
98.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 5 yds to the TEX 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
98.4%
Chris Parson run for 10 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
98.3%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Van Buren Jr.) to the TEX 41Similar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+6
98.3%
Chris Parson run for 6 yds to the TEX 35Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+4
98.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for 4 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-2
98.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 33Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+5
98.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Justin Ball for 5 yds to the TEX 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:4598% → 98%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
98.1%
Mississippi State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Brylan Lanier) to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
98.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 16 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
98.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to Gunnar Helm for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 21Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+20
98.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 20 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 1 yd for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:082% → 2%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.1%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
98.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 27Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.0%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.0%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:5998% → 98%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+27
98.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 27 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.0%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+17
98.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 17 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
98.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 5 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
98.0%
Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-1
97.9%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 21 Jaydon Blue fumbled, recovered by MSST Zakari Tillman Z. Tillman return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:172% → 3%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
97.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 10 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
97.6%
Johnnie Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
97.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+14
97.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Seydou Traore for 14 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
97.3%
(00:53) VAN BUREN JR., Michael pass short to the right complete for 2 yards to BOOTH, Davon caught at the MSST46 and advanced to the MSST46 (GUILBEAU, Jaylon), clock 00:47. PENALTY MSST Holding on WORK, Luke enforced 10 yards from the MSST44 to the MSST34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+4
97.4%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+8
97.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 8 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
97.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:24
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
97.3%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3797% → 97%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.3%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-10
97.2%
(14:12) WISNER, Quintrevion rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the TEX27 (ELLINGTON, Corey), clock 14:08. PENALTY TEX Holding on WILLIAMS, Cameron enforced 10 yards from the TEX20 to the TEX10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-2
97.2%
Arch Manning sacked by Branden Jennings and Trevion Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 8Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+7
97.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 7 yds to the TEX 15Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
96.9%
punt blocked by Zakari Tillman blocked by Zakari TillmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 3:093% → 4%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
96.7%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the TEX 32Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+2
96.5%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
96.5%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
96.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
96.2%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the TEX 25Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-2
96.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 27Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+45
95.7%
Kyle Ferrie 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:5196% → 95%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
95.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 12 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
95.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 34Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+4
95.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to Matthew Golden for 4 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
95.5%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
95.2%
Michael Kern punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 5:335% → 8%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
95.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 18 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
94.8%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-5
94.6%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Michael Van Buren Jr.) to the MSST 37Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+20
94.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 20 yds to the TEX 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
94.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for 5 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
93.8%
Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the TEX 35Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+17
93.6%
Johnnie Daniels run for 17 yds to the TEX 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
93.0%
Davon Booth run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 19Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+5
92.9%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the TEX 14Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
92.8%
Chris Parson run for no gain to the TEX 14Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
92.4%
Kyle Ferrie 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2393% → 95%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 4 yds to the TEX 29Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
93.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 27Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
92.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 10 yds to the TEX 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
93.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
50
+4
93.6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 4 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
93.6%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-10
93.3%
Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MSST 49Similar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+49
95.4%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 49 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:055% → 5%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
95.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Anthony Hill Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 18Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+10
95.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 10 yds to the MSST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
95.6%
Jaydon Blue run for 21 yds to the TEX 46 Jaydon Blue fumbled, recovered by MSST Stone Blanton S. Blanton return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:066% → 6%
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
94.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 8 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
94.3%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
93.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TEX 43 Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled, recovered by TEX Vernon Broughton , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:0096% → 95%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
95.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to Matthew Golden for 9 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+15
95.6%
Mississippi State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
95.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
95.5%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the MSST 26Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-5
95.1%
Texas Penalty, False Start (Gunnar Helm) to the MSST 31Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+13
95.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 23 yds to the MSST 8 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gunnar Helm) to the MSST 40Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+9
94.6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 9 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+5
94.4%
(10:19) AUBURN, Bert field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at MSST39], score nullified by penalty, clock 10:15. PENALTY MSST Offsides on BLANTON, Stone enforced 5 yards from the MSST31 to the MSST26 [FG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 3
OPP 26
0
94.5%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 4:336% → 6%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
93.9%
Mario Craver run for 10 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
93.4%
Chris Parson run for 4 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
92.8%
Johnnie Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
92.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
92.4%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 49Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+9
92.1%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 9 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
91.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 2 yds to the TEX 40Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-10
92.2%
(06:39) CRAVER, Mario rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the TEX29 (MUHAMMAD, Malik), out of bounds, clock 06:32. PENALTY MSST Illegal Block in the Back on POUNDERS, Makylan enforced 10 yards from the TEX40 to the MSST50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 18
50
0
92.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 18
50
-9
93.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 41Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 27
OWN 41
+20
93.6%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 54 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 20 yds to the TEX 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2294% → 98%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to Silas Bolden for 3 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+31
94.1%
Arch Manning pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 31 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
94.8%
Texas Penalty, False Start (DJ Campbell) to the MSST 46Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+10
94.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 10 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
94.7%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 4 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
94.2%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MSST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
94.6%
Texas Penalty, Illegal Snap on MAJORS, Jake enforced (Jake Majors) to the MSST 35Similar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+8
94.5%
Arch Manning run for 8 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+26
94.6%
Arch Manning run for 26 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.5%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gainSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.4%
Arch Manning run for no gain to the MSST 1Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Arch Manning run for 1 yd for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 2:104% → 4%
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.4%
Johnnie Daniels run for 8 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
95.9%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
95.8%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Colton Vasek for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 28Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
96.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-5
96.3%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Van Buren Jr.) to the MSST 23Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 22
OWN 23
-5
96.3%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Van Buren Jr.) to the MSST 18Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 27
OWN 18
+7
96.4%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 7 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 60 yds, downed at the TEX 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:0798% → 100%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
98.2%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 7 yds to the TEX 22Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+38
98.4%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 38 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
98.5%
Jerrick Gibson run for 6 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
98.6%
Jerrick Gibson run for 6 yds to the MSST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
98.6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Jerrick Gibson for 8 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-10
98.6%
(10:16) WISNER, Quintrevion rush to the right for a gain of 20 yards to the MSST0, TOUCHDOWN TEX, score nullified by penalty, clock 10:11 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TEX Holding on HUTSON, Cole enforced 10 yards from the MSST20 to the MSST30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+10
98.6%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 10 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+4
98.5%
Arch Manning pass complete to Matthew Golden for 14 yds to the MSST 6 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (DeAndre Moore Jr.) to the MSST 27Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+27
99.7%
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 27 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:161% → 4%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
99.3%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Mario Craver for 46 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
99.1%
Davon Booth run for 7 yds to the TEX 22Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
99.1%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the TEX 20Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
99.2%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the TEX 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
99.2%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Justin Ball for 1 yd to the TEX 16Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+4
99.3%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the TEX 12Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+12
95.9%
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:0999% → 100%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
98.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the TEX 35Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+7
98.6%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
98.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 2
50
+13
98.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 13 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
98.9%
Quintrevion Wisner run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 41Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+14
98.8%
Arch Manning pass complete to Matthew Golden for 14 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
99.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+26
99.8%
Isaiah Bond run for 26 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:441% → 0%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 12 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 3 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
99.5%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 9 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
99.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 44 Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled, recovered by MSST Johnnie Daniels , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
99.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 15
OWN 44
0
99.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 15
OWN 44
-9
99.6%
Michael Van Buren Jr. sacked by Barryn Sorrell for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.8%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-1
99.8%
(00:32) [NH] Kneel down by TEX at MSST34 (team loss of 1), clock 00:24.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:00
Arch Manning run for 1 yd for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
+3.6
TD · Q4 6:12
Michael Van Buren Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-3.4
TD · Q2 0:29
Arch Manning pass complete to DeAndre Moore Jr. for 49 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com