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UK

Kentucky 20 at Ole Miss 17

MISS
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:49 · Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 42 yds to the UK 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Pregame prior+1.4Home team on offense−11.9Garbage-time factor−8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.5Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Dane Key 5 Yd pass from Brock Vandagriff (Alex Raynor Kick) — UK win probability +13.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:31: Alex Raynor 48 Yd Field Goal — UK win probability +7.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:10: Tre Harris 48 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick) — MISS win probability +14.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:25: Josh Kattus 2 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick) — UK win probability +52.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:44: TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 30 — UK win probability +18.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UK made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 8:37UK 4th & 1 at MISS 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:13UK 4th & 8 at MISS 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:36MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:44UK 4th & 14 at UK 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:19MISS 4th & 12 at MISS 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:20UK 4th & 1 at UK 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:52UK 4th & 2 at midfield, down 4
    Close callPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:09MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:52UK 4th & 9 at UK 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:44MISS 4th & 7 at UK 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−9.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:31UK 4th & 3 at MISS 30, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%−1.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:11UK 4th & 20 at UK 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−6.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:10MISS 4th & 7 at UK 48, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:46UK 4th & 22 at UK 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−5.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:14MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 46, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:40UK 4th & 20 at UK 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−4.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:48MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 41, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%−1.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:51UK 4th & 7 at UK 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.5%−1.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:49MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.1%−1.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:48MISS 4th & 7 at UK 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−8.4
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−19.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:51MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:27UK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:10MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:25UK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:0288% → 88%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
87.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 7 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+15
87.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 15 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
87.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 9 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+12
87.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 12 yds to the UK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
87.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 39 yds to the UK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. 1 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2FG
17 plays · 66 yds · 7:3313% → 15%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.5%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 7 yds to the UK 32Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
87.4%
Brock Vandagriff run for 4 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Dane KeySimilar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
87.3%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 7 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
87.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 8 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
87.0%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 2 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+2
86.9%
Brock Vandagriff run for 2 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
86.9%
Brock Vandagriff run for 5 yds to the MISS 40Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+2
86.8%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
86.6%
Ole Miss Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MISS 33Similar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 5
OPP 33
+11
86.4%
Brock Vandagriff run for 11 yds to the MISS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
86.2%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 11 yds to the MISS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
86.1%
Gavin Wimsatt run for no gain to the MISS 11Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
85.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 2 yds to the MISS 9Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
86.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Dane KeySimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
85.3%
Alex Raynor 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2685% → 85%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
85.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
84.9%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Octavious Oxendine for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+42
84.5%
Fraser Masin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 29 Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the UK 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3715% → 15%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
84.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 2 yds to the UK 36Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
84.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Dane KeySimilar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-11
84.9%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Chris Paul Jr. and Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 11 yards to the UK 25Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 19
OWN 25
+5
85.1%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UK 30Similar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
85.0%
Aidan Laros punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:1984% → 83%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
84.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
84.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the MISS 40Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
84.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
84.6%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Micah Pettus) to the MISS 33Similar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 20
OWN 33
0
84.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+13
83.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 13 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-5
84.1%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Deone Walker and Jamon Dumas-Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 41Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
83.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UK 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 41 yds · 6:1216% → 19%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
83.8%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 1 yd to the UK 10Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+4
83.7%
Brock Vandagriff run for 4 yds to the UK 14Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+3
83.8%
Vandagriff, Brock pass incomplete to Maclin, Ja'Mori, PENALTY MISS pass interference (Canady, Jadon) 3 yards to the UK17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.Similar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+14
83.3%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 14 yds to the UK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
82.9%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 2 yds to the UK 33Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
82.6%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 2 yds to the UK 35Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
82.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 5 yds to the UK 40Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
82.4%
Brock Vandagriff run for 2 yds to the UK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
81.3%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 40Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+9
81.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 9 yds to the UK 49Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+1
80.6%
Brock Vandagriff run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 2
50
0
81.2%
Wilson Berry punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3482% → 81%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
82.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
82.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+10
81.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 10 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
82.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
82.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+4
81.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 4 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
81.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
21 plays · 81 yds · 5:3019% → 35%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
81.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 6 yds to the UK 25Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
80.7%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd to the UK 26Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+6
81.1%
Brock Vandagriff run for 6 yds to the UK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
80.2%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the UK 35Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+16
79.8%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 16 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
78.3%
Sumo-Karngbaye, Demie rush for 9 yards to the MISS40, PENALTY UK holding 10 yards to the UK41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+24
80.0%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 24 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
76.7%
Gavin Wimsatt run for no gain to the MISS 35Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
76.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Josh KattusSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+15
79.4%
Vandagriff, Brock pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY MISS pass interference (Amos, Trey) 15 yards to the MISS20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
77.3%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 5 yds to the MISS 15Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+10
76.8%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 10 yds to the MISS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
76.8%
Jamarion Wilcox run for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 9Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
76.8%
Gavin Wimsatt run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 10Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 0
OPP 10
+5
78.8%
Vandagriff, Brock pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY MISS pass interference (Amos, Trey) 5 yards to the MISS5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UK.Similar
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.2%
Dane Key 5 Yd pass from Brock Vandagriff (Alex Raynor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9END OF HALF
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:1369% → 68%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.8%
Ole Miss Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MISS 20Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
68.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MISS 26Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
68.3%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Octavious Oxendine for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5930% → 30%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 2 yds to the UK 27Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
69.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the UK 31Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
68.8%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 26Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
70.3%
Aidan Laros punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:0470% → 75%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
69.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 17 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
71.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+5
71.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
71.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the UK 32Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+15
72.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 15 yds to the UK 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
72.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the UK 15Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
72.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the UK 10Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 3
OPP 10
-4
70.3%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 14Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+31
74.5%
Caden Davis 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:0629% → 39%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
70.8%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 21 yds to the UK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
67.7%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 17 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
66.7%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 2 yds to the MISS 35Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 8
OPP 35
-10
65.2%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 10 yards to the MISS 45Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 18
OPP 45
+15
68.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 15 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
61.4%
Alex Raynor 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:3364% → 68%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 6 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
65.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+39
64.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 39 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
69.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the UK 19Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+1
68.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 1 yd Tre Harris fumbled, recovered by UKSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0541% → 40%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
58.8%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 18 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
57.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 35Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
57.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Justin KattusSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-9
59.0%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 9 yards to the UK 26Similar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 20
OWN 26
+3
60.1%
Aidan Laros punt for 38 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 3 yds to the MISS 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:5562% → 78%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
61.5%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q3 1:39
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+6
63.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Matt Jones for 6 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
63.4%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the UK 47Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
63.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 6
OPP 47
-1
62.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 48Similar
Q3 0:10
4TH & 7
OPP 48
+48
77.6%
Tre Harris 48 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:1724% → 22%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
76.1%
Brock Vandagriff run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 13Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+25
76.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Willie Rodriguez for 25 yds to the UK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
74.1%
Jamarion Wilcox run for no gain to the UK 38Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
74.0%
Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Ja'Mori MaclinSimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-15
75.6%
Kentucky Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UK 23Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 25
OWN 23
+3
77.0%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the UK 26Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 22
OWN 26
+17
77.6%
Aidan Laros punt for 53 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 17 yds to the MISS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2379% → 77%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
78.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
79.7%
Matt Jones run for no gain to the MISS 42Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
78.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 4 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
77.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:2725% → 24%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
74.8%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the UK 14Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+3
74.9%
Brock Vandagriff run for 3 yds to the UK 17Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+12
75.5%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 12 yds to the UK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
73.0%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 1 yd to the UK 30Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+3
73.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 3 yds to the UK 33Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
73.5%
Brock Vandagriff run for 9 yds to the UK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
70.5%
Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Ja'Mori MaclinSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
71.4%
Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Jordan DingleSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-10
73.1%
Brock Vandagriff sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 10 yards to the UK 32Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 20
OWN 32
0
75.8%
Aidan Laros punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4381% → 85%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
81.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 6 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+1
83.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 40Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+1
83.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 41Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
85.4%
Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ja'Mori Maclin at the UK 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:1726% → 83%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
73.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Dane KeySimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
74.9%
Brock Vandagriff run for 3 yds to the UK 20Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
80.5%
Brock Vandagriff pass incomplete to Fred Farrier IISimilar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 7
OWN 20
+63
82.0%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 63 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
70.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 11 yds to the MISS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
17.3%
Josh Kattus 2 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 44 yds · 1:3034% → 27%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
33.5%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 24Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
32.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
28.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+42
27.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 42 yds to the UK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
42.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Henry Parrish Jr.Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-4
42.2%
Jaxson Dart sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 38Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+5
31.7%
Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UK 33Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+2
33.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 2 yds to the UK 31Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
26.7%
Caden Davis 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:1792% → 92%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
7.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 30Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-5
7.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 25Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 16
OWN 25
-2
7.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:25
Josh Kattus 2 Yd Run (Alex Raynor Kick)
-52.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:44
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 30
-18.9
TD · Q3 0:10
Tre Harris 48 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)
+14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com