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USA

South Alabama 10 at LSU 42

LSU
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:56 · Peyton Todd punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior+30.3Home team on offense+17.3Score differential+2.2Blowout margin+0.8Garbage-time factor+3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:47: Garrett Nussmeier run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:45: Caden Durham run for 8 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 14:15: Laith Marjan 49 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +1.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:27: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 23 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:17: Gio Lopez pass complete to Anthony Eager for 27 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK) — USA win probability +0.7 pts (now 2%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2USA made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 11:41USA 4th & 6 at USA 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:00USA 4th & 5 at USA 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45USA 4th & 2 at LSU 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:15USA 4th & 9 at LSU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:16USA 4th & 15 at USA 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:56LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 33, up 25
    Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:04USA 4th & 4 at USA 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:48USA 4th & 17 at USA 43, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:47USA 4th & 4 at LSU 4, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:31USA 4th & 15 at USA 20, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:17LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 48, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:38USA 4th & 2 at LSU 35, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:36LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:47LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:45LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:55LSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:27LSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:17USA Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:08LSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
91.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 71 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:558% → 9%
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 6 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
91.8%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the USA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
91.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 8 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
91.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 3 yds to the USA 44Similar
Q1 14:36
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+1
91.8%
PJ Martin run for 1 yd to the USA 43Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
91.4%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 87 yds · 0:5491% → 92%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+86
91.4%
Caden Durham run for 86 yds to the USA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.9%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:478% → 8%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the USA 27Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
91.7%
PENALTY USA False Start (Carney,Malachi) 5 yards from USA27 to USA22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
91.7%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the USA 30Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
91.7%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
91.8%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 45 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for no gain to the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:1592% → 94%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
91.9%
Caden Durham run for 10 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
91.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
91.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 15 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
91.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 29 yds to the USA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
91.9%
Caden Durham run for 6 yds to the USA 19Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
92.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-8
91.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 7 yds to the USA 12 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Will Campbell) to the USA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
91.9%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the USA 24Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+12
91.9%
Josh Williams run for 12 yds to the USA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
91.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 4 yds to the USA 8Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
93.5%
Caden Durham run for 8 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:307% → 7%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.4%
Kentrel Bullock run for 1 yd to the USA 26Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+25
93.4%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 25 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
93.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 5 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
93.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
92.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+9
93.0%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jamaal Pritchett for 9 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
92.9%
Gio Lopez run for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
93.9%
Fluff Bothwell run for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 30
-1
94.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
92.9%
Laith Marjan 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:1193% → 94%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
93.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
93.3%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+25
93.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 25 yds to the USA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
93.3%
Zavion Thomas run for 26 yds to the USA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.7%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 5 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:396% → 8%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 7 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
94.2%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the USA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
94.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lopez,Gio pass incomplete deep left to Sandgren,Shamar thrown to LSU44 broken up by Stamps,Ashton PENALTY USA Personal Foul (Davis,Jordan) 15 yards from USA36 to USA21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+1
93.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Jeremiah Webb for 1 yd to the USA 22Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 24
OWN 22
0
93.8%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 24
OWN 22
+9
93.9%
Kentrel Bullock run for 9 yds to the USA 31Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
92.1%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2094% → 93%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
94.3%
Caden Durham run for 5 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
94.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
94.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
92.9%
Peyton Todd punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:527% → 6%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
93.1%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the USA 21Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+8
93.2%
Gio Lopez pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 8 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-1
92.8%
Gio Lopez sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the USA 28Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
94.2%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:3796% → 98%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
95.9%
Caden Durham run for 9 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+7
96.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+30
96.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 30 yds to the USA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
98.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 23 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:392% → 1%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.3%
Kentrel Bullock run for 4 yds to the USA 29Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+21
98.1%
Kentrel Bullock run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
50
+2
98.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 2 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+5
98.2%
run for 5 yds to the USA 43 fumbled, recovered by USA Shamar SandgrenSimilar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
98.3%
South Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wesley Miller) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
98.9%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:2799% → 99%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 3 yds to the LSU 10 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 12
OWN 5
0
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+7
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 7 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+16
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 16 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 13 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
98.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Lardarius Webb Jr. return for no gain to the USA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:211% → 1%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Devin Voisin for 1 yd to the USA 39Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
98.8%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+12
98.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 12 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
99.2%
Gio Lopez sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the USA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:431% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.0%
Kentrel Bullock run for 16 yds to the USA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
98.8%
Gio Lopez run for 12 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
98.8%
Kentrel Bullock run for 6 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+3
98.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
98.7%
Fluff Bothwell run for 1 yd to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
98.8%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 7 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+1
98.6%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Fluff Bothwell for 1 yd to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+7
98.6%
Gio Lopez run for 7 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
98.6%
PENALTY USA False Start (Hale,Asher) 5 yards from LSU22 to LSU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+27
97.9%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Anthony Eager for 27 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16INT
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:1299% → 99%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 15 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
98.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 9 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
98.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 4 yds to the USA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+23
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 23 yds to the USA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Jaden Voisin return for no gain to the USA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 67 yds · 3:182% → 1%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
98.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Anthony Eager for 17 yds to the USA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
98.5%
Fluff Bothwell run for 4 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+38
98.5%
Gio Lopez pass complete to Anthony Eager for 38 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
98.4%
Fluff Bothwell run for 3 yds to the LSU 6Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
98.3%
Fluff Bothwell run for 2 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.5%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
98.8%
Gio Lopez run for 3 yds to the LSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
14 plays · 99 yds · 5:3999% → 100%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
99.3%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+16
99.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 16 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
99.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 13 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
99.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Nussmeier,Garrett pass incomplete short right to Williams,Josh thrown to LSU35 PENALTY LSU Face Mask (Chester,DJ) 15 yards from LSU33 to LSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 25
OWN 18
+3
99.2%
Kaleb Jackson run for 3 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 22
OWN 21
+10
99.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 10 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+15
99.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 15 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.3%
Kaleb Jackson run for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+9
99.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 9 yds to the USA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
99.5%
Josh Williams run for 10 yds to the USA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
99.5%
PENALTY LSU Illegal Snap (Chester,DJ) 5 yards from USA34 to USA39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+35
99.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 35 yds to the USA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Gio Lopez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
PENALTY USA False Start (Preciado,Malachi) 5 yards from USA25 to USA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
99.9%
Gio Lopez run for 8 yds to the USA 28Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
99.9%
Gio Lopez sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the USA 20Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 35 , Zavion Thomas returns for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.9%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 3 yds to the USA 47Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-5
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ju'Juan Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:390% → 0%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
99.9%
PJ Martin run for 5 yds to the USA 8Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+7
99.9%
PJ Martin run for 7 yds to the USA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
99.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Javon Ivory for 14 yds to the USA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Anthony Eager for 9 yds to the USA 38Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+19
99.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Andrew Bench for 19 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
99.9%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Shamar Sandgren for 8 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Bishop Davenport pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22END OF GAME
12 plays · 55 yds · 6:38100% → 100%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Rickie Collins run for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
99.9%
Kaleb Jackson run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+11
99.9%
Rickie Collins run for 11 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.9%
Kaleb Jackson run for 4 yds to the USA 48Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+11
99.9%
Rickie Collins pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 11 yds to the USA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.9%
Rickie Collins pass complete to Ka'Morreun Pimpton for 5 yds to the USA 32Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
99.9%
Kaleb Jackson run for 7 yds to the USA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
100.0%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for 5 yds to the USA 20Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
100.0%
Rickie Collins pass complete to Javen Nicholas for 5 yds to the USA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
100.0%
Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the USA 13Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
100.0%
Kaleb Jackson run for 3 yds to the USA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 4:45
Caden Durham run for 8 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q2 4:27
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 23 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+1.6
FG · Q2 14:15
Laith Marjan 49 yd FG GOOD
-1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com