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UGA

Georgia 34 at Alabama 41

ALA
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.7ALA 94.0%Graham Nicholson 28 Yd Field GoalAWAY 15 - HOME 33 · Q3 1:23
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Q3 1:23 · Graham Nicholson 28 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Home team on offense+24.3Score differential+11.1Garbage-time factor+11.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Pregame prior+0.8Time remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:43: Trevor Etienne 7 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick) — UGA win probability +10.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:06: Arian Smith 12 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carson Beck Pass to Lawson Luckie for Two-Point Conversion) — UGA win probability +12.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:39: Dillon Bell 3 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick) — UGA win probability +26.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:31: Dillon Bell 67 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UGA win probability +49.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:18: Ryan Williams 75 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Jalen Milroe Pass to Germie Bernard for Two-Point Conversion) — ALA win probability +58.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:50UGA 4th & 21 at UGA 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:52UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 27, down 21
    Close callPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:32ALA 4th & 1 at UGA 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−2.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:54UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 45, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:59ALA 4th & 1 at UGA 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−2.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:19ALA 4th & 18 at ALA 47, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:21UGA 4th & 21 at UGA 30, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:50ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 32, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:12UGA 4th & 1 at UGA 29, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:07UGA 4th & 3 at UGA 37, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:23ALA 4th & 7 at UGA 10, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:30UGA 4th & 6 at UGA 41, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:30ALA 4th & 5 at UGA 42, up 18
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:14ALA 4th & 16 at ALA 38, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:23ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 26, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−3.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:15UGA 4th & 2 at ALA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−4.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 10:11ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:21ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:32ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:43UGA Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:06UGA Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:55UGA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.5%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:39UGA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:31UGA Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    58.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:18ALA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    81.0%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
19 plays · 70 yds · 4:3453% → 56%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
53.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 8 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
53.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 8 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-5
53.2%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun Milroe,Jalen pass complete short left to Bernard,Germie caught at ALA35, for 1 yard loss to the ALA37 (Jackson,Dan) PENALTY ALA Illegal Formation 5 yards from ALA38 to ALA33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-5
53.2%
Alabama Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the ALA 33Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
53.2%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the ALA 33Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
53.2%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the ALA 33Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+5
53.2%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ALA 38Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+5
53.2%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ALA 38Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
53.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 2 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
53.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 2 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+34
53.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 34 yds to the UGA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
53.6%
Germie Bernard run for 11 yds to the UGA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+16
53.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 16 yds to the UGA 9Similar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
54.0%
Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UGA 25Similar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+16
53.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 16 yds to the UGA 9Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+7
54.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the UGA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
54.2%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UGA 7Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 7
OWN 0
+7
55.6%
Jalen Milroe 7 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:0143% → 40%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
57.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 15 yds to the UGA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.7%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
58.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 4 yds Trevor Etienne fumbled, recovered by UGA Dylan FairchildSimilar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-15
58.4%
Georgia Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Dominic Lovett) to the UGA 24Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 21
OWN 24
0
59.4%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 21
OWN 24
-4
59.6%
Brett Thorson punt for 56 yds , Ryan Williams returns for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 2:5660% → 64%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+23
60.4%
Justice Haynes run for 23 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
61.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 21 yds to the UGA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
62.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 19 yds to the UGA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
62.8%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the UGA 19Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
63.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the UGA 16Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+16
63.8%
Jam Miller 16 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4INT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4738% → 38%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.0%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dillon BellSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.0%
Trevor Etienne run for 2 yds to the UGA 27Similar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+27
62.3%
Trevor Etienne run for 27 yds to the UGA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
62.4%
Carson Beck pass intercepted Domani Jackson return for 7 yds to the UGA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 1:1865% → 72%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
64.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 6 yds to the UGA 16Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+9
65.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 9 yds to the UGA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.7%
Germie Bernard 7 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:1828% → 27%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
71.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the UGA 27Similar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
71.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 6 yds to the UGA 27Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
72.4%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the UGA 27Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
73.5%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
73.3%
Brett Thorson punt for 40 yds, downed at the ALA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:5873% → 85%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
73.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 7 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
73.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 7 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
75.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 15 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
78.0%
Kendrick Law run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 46Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+6
78.3%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the UGA 40Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+4
78.6%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the UGA 36Similar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+36
85.0%
Jalen Milroe 36 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3414% → 20%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.2%
Trevor Etienne run for 11 yds to the UGA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
86.1%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the UGA 39Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-3
86.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for a loss of 3 yards to the UGA 36Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+9
87.8%
Carson Beck run for 9 yds to the UGA 45Similar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+7
87.6%
Trevor Etienne run for 7 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
88.0%
Branson Robinson run for 7 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+8
87.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 8 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
88.3%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+20
90.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 20 yds to the ALA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
91.1%
Dillon Bell run for 6 yds to the ALA 7Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
80.4%
Trevor Etienne 7 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3387% → 90%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
86.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 6 yds to the ALA 31 Alabama Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+26
87.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 26 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
87.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 6 yds to the ALA 31 Alabama Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Tyler Booker) to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
88.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 15 yds to the UGA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
88.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the UGA 41Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
88.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+7
88.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 7 yds to the UGA 34Similar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 1
OPP 34
-1
90.1%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-24
86.1%
Carson Beck pass intercepted Jihaad Campbell return for 24 yds to the UGA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3791% → 90%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
90.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 13 yds to the UGA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
90.6%
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 13Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
90.0%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted Dan Jackson return for no gain to the UGA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12SF
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:1113% → 12%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
87.4%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
87.6%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 5
-5
88.3%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13FUMBLE
10 plays · 25 yds · 1:0490% → 90%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
90.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 18 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
90.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 7 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+8
90.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 8 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
91.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 5 yds to the UGA 40Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-8
91.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for a loss of 8 yards to the UGA 48Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 13
OPP 48
0
91.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 13
OPP 48
-5
90.5%
Alabama Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ALA 47Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 18
OWN 47
+1
90.1%
James Burnip punt for 46 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 1 yd to the UGA 8 Anthony Evans III fumbled, recovered by UGASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 56 yds · 0:1211% → 11%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
89.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 14 yds to the UGA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
89.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Colbie Young for 12 yds to the UGA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+30
88.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 30 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
89.3%
Alabama Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the ALA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:2511% → 9%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
89.4%
Trevor Etienne run for no gain to the UGA 41Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
89.9%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-11
90.3%
Carson Beck sacked by Deontae Lawson for a loss of 11 yards to the UGA 30Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 21
OWN 30
0
91.1%
Brett Thorson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cole Adams at the ALA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2292% → 92%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
91.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 27Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+5
92.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
92.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
92.4%
James Burnip punt for 48 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for no gain to the UGA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 6:368% → 17%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.4%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Oscar DelpSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
92.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 4 yds to the UGA 24Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
93.0%
Carson Beck run for 5 yds to the UGA 29Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
93.1%
Cash Jones run for 1 yd to the UGA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
93.1%
Carson Beck run for 7 yds to the UGA 37Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 3
OWN 37
-3
93.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 7 yds to the UGA 44 Georgia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Anthony Evans III) to the UGA 34Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-5
94.0%
Georgia Penalty, False Start (Xavier Truss) to the UGA 29Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+1
94.5%
Branson Robinson run for 1 yd to the UGA 30Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+7
94.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 7 yds to the UGA 37Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+4
94.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 4 yds to the UGA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.9%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dillon BellSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
94.9%
Trevor Etienne run for 5 yds to the UGA 46Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
95.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+10
95.2%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (10 Yards) to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.1%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Anthony Evans IIISimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+32
95.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 32 yds to the ALA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
82.9%
Arian Smith 12 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carson Beck Pass to Lawson Luckie for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FG
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:3790% → 94%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
90.1%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the ALA 21Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
90.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 12 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+54
91.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 54 yds to the UGA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
92.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the UGA 11Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 8
OPP 11
-2
92.0%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 13Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+3
92.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 3 yds to the UGA 10Similar
Q3 1:23
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+28
94.0%
Graham Nicholson 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FUMBLE
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:347% → 6%
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dillon BellSimilar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds to the UGA 28Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
93.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 9 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.6%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Oscar DelpSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
93.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 5 yds to the UGA 42Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-1
93.8%
Trevor Etienne run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 41Similar
Q4 14:30
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+12
94.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 12 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
94.4%
Carson Beck sacked by Qua Russaw for a loss of 6 yards to the UGA 47 Carson Beck fumbled, recovered by ALA Jah-Marien Latham , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0197% → 96%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
96.5%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the UGA 42Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
96.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the UGA 41Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-1
96.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 42Similar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
96.3%
James Burnip punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:314% → 12%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.9%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dillon BellSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
96.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Trevor Etienne for 7 yds to the UGA 27Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
96.0%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+10
96.2%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UGA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
96.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 21 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+34
95.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Colbie Young for 34 yds to the ALA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
88.3%
Lawson Luckie 8 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:2592% → 93%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to CJ DippreSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
92.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Cole Adams for 15 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
93.3%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 43Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
93.3%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the ALA 43Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
93.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 11
OWN 43
-5
92.6%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 38Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
93.4%
James Burnip punt for 40 yds, downed at the UGA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:217% → 35%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+30
92.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 30 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+47
91.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 47 yds to the ALA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
91.0%
Cash Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 3Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.0%
Dillon Bell 3 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0184% → 85%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
83.6%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the ALA 7Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+10
83.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 10 yds to the ALA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
84.8%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
85.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 4 yds to the ALA 23Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+3
85.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 3 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
85.2%
James Burnip punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 25TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
35.4%
Dillon Bell 67 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
93.4%
Ryan Williams 75 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Jalen Milroe Pass to Germie Bernard for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 27INT
13 plays · 55 yds · 1:3112% → 16%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Arian SmithSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.7%
Carson Beck run for 8 yds to the UGA 33Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
87.5%
Trevor Etienne run for 12 yds to the UGA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
86.1%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Lawson LuckieSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
86.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 8 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
84.8%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+11
86.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Colbie Young for 11 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
84.4%
Carson Beck run for 2 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
85.0%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+14
87.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 14 yds to the ALA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.6%
Carson Beck pass intercepted, touchback. Zabien Brown return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0396% → 96%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 18Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:18
Ryan Williams 75 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Jalen Milroe Pass to Germie Bernard for Two-Point Conversion)
+58
TD · Q4 2:31
Dillon Bell 67 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-49.8
TD · Q4 5:39
Dillon Bell 3 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)
-26
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com