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VAN

Vanderbilt 27 at Missouri 30

MIZ
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:48 · Blake Craig 40 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingScore differentialOffense timeoutsDefense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 120Pregame prior+9.8Home team on offense+3.4Time remaining−0.3Score differential−1.1Offense timeouts+0.0Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:18: M. Carroll run for 3 yds for a TD (B. Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +12.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:21: A. Newberry run for 4 yds for a TD (B. Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +19.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: D. Pavia pass to G. Fisher for 2 yds for a TD (B. Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +18.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Luther Burden III 25 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Blake Craig Kick) — MIZ win probability +41.2 pts (now 66%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Brady Cook pass incomplete — MIZ win probability +18.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 9VAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 12:30VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:02MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:27VAN 4th & 8 at MIZ 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:48MIZ 4th & 2 at VAN 7, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%−1.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−5.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:26VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−2.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:17MIZ 4th & 6 at VAN 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:00VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:08MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 47, tied
    Close callWent for it · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:58MIZ 4th & 14 at VAN 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:21VAN 4th & 14 at VAN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−4.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:49VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:29MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:48MIZ 4th & 2 at VAN 23, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%−3.0
    70% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−18.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:49VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−4.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:06MIZ 4th & 14 at VAN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−4.8
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−15.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:06VAN 4th & 8 at MIZ 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−6.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:53MIZ 4th & 1 at VAN 47, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.8 ptsPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−8.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:06VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:51MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:18MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:21VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:299% → 9%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.5%
AJ Newberry run for 6 yds to the VAN 31Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
91.3%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VAN 26Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-8
91.2%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 8 yards to the VAN 18 Diego Pavia fumbled, recovered by VAN AJ Newberry A. Newberry return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
91.1%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+24
90.9%
Jesse Mirco punt for 54 yds , Luther Burden III returns for 24 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1891% → 90%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
90.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for 2 yds to the MIZ 49Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-1
90.8%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 48Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
90.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
90.4%
Luke Bauer punt for 36 yds. PENALTY, VANDY Holding (Newberry) enforced half the distance to the goalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 1:5110% → 11%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
90.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 13Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+8
90.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 8 yds to the VAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
90.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 14 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
88.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Joseph McVay for 65 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 5:0189% → 89%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
88.9%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+10
88.8%
Nate Noel run for 10 yds to the MIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
88.6%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
88.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+9
88.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 9 yds to the VAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
88.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 7 yds to the VAN 38Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+1
87.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the VAN 37Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
87.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the VAN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
87.4%
Brady Cook run for 13 yds to the VAN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
88.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 20 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 5:1712% → 15%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.0%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
87.7%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
87.1%
AJ Newberry run for 4 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+36
86.7%
Diego Pavia run for 36 yds to the MIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
86.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+15
86.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 15 yds to the MIZ 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
85.5%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the MIZ 4Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
85.3%
AJ Newberry run for no gain to the MIZ 4Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-5
85.2%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 5 yards to the MIZ 9Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
84.6%
Brock Taylor 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6MISSED FG
15 plays · 91 yds · 6:2885% → 81%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
84.7%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MIZ 6Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+1
84.4%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the MIZ 7Similar
Q2 12:21
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+8
83.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
84.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+32
83.9%
Nate Noel run for 32 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
84.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 4 yds to the VAN 49Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-1
84.8%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 7
50
+18
84.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 18 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
84.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+15
84.2%
Brady Cook pass incomplete. PENALTY VAN Personal Foul (Kollie) enforced 15 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
84.2%
Luther Burden run for a loss of 2 yards to the VANDY17. PENALTY MIZ Holding (Johnson) enforced 10 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+17
83.7%
Nate Noel run for 17 yds to the VAN 8Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+2
83.3%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the VAN 6Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 6
-1
82.2%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 7Similar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+24
81.0%
Blake Craig 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:1720% → 20%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
79.8%
AJ Newberry run for 4 yds to the VAN 24Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
79.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 26Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-12
79.1%
Diego Pavia sacked by Chuck Hicks for a loss of 12 yards to the VAN 14Similar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
79.7%
Jesse Mirco punt for 49 yds , Luther Burden III returns for no gain to the MIZ 14 Missouri Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the MIZ 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:0280% → 81%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
80.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+16
80.2%
Nate Noel run for 16 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
80.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for no gain to the VAN 37Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
80.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 11 yds to the VAN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
80.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 19 yds to the VAN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
80.0%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the VAN 5Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
79.2%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 6Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
78.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
81.2%
Blake Craig 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1222% → 21%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.0%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 24Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
78.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 6 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
77.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
79.0%
Jesse Mirco punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4480% → 80%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
80.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 13 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
80.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+7
80.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 3
OWN 47
-5
80.0%
Brady Cook sacked by Khordae Sydnor for a loss of 5 yards to the MIZ 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11FG
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0226% → 31%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
74.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 4 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+57
69.5%
Brock Taylor 57 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12FG
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:4477% → 76%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
77.2%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
76.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 5 yds to the MIZ 49Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+4
73.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 4 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
74.6%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the VAN 43Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+10
74.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 10 yds to the VAN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-6
75.6%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 6 yards to the VAN 39Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+2
72.9%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 14
OPP 37
0
71.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 14
OPP 37
+54
76.2%
Blake Craig 54 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3225% → 24%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
75.0%
Junior Sherrill run for a loss of 7 yards to the VAN 18 Junior Sherrill fumbled, recovered by VAN Diego Pavia D. Pavia return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+3
74.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 3 yds to the VAN 21Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
75.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
76.2%
Jesse Mirco punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5976% → 88%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
76.0%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the MIZ 33Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+64
76.2%
Nate Noel run for 64 yds to the VAN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.3%
M. Carroll run for 3 yds for a TD (B. Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2416% → 14%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
84.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yard to the VAN 36. Vanderbilt Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chase Mitchell) to the VAN 21Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 24
OWN 21
+8
85.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to AJ Newberry for 8 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
85.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
85.9%
Jesse Mirco punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1387% → 87%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
87.2%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the MIZ 33Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
87.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+8
86.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 8 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
86.7%
Luke Bauer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 5:0516% → 40%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
84.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 9 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
82.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
83.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
82.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 38Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+31
82.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 31 yds to the MIZ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
80.8%
Diego Pavia run for 15 yds to the MIZ 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
80.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Cole Spence for 12 yds to the MIZ 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
60.2%
A. Newberry run for 4 yds for a TD (B. Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:2173% → 69%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
73.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 6 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+5
74.1%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the VAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
73.8%
Brady Cook sacked by Bryan Longwell for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 43Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+5
72.7%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Delay Of Game (De'Rickey Wright) to the VAN 38Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+1
73.2%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the VAN 37Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+6
72.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the VAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
73.7%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the VAN 30Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+7
73.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
71.3%
Brady Cook run for no gain to the VAN 23Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+40
68.5%
Blake Craig 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5438% → 35%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
62.2%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the VAN 24Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
62.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
63.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
65.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20MISSED FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:3967% → 61%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
66.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+27
66.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 27 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
70.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
70.3%
Nate Noel run for 14 yds to the VAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
71.4%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the VAN 22Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-7
71.0%
Brady Cook sacked by Randon Fontenette for a loss of 7 yards to the VAN 29Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
65.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
61.1%
Blake Craig 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:5643% → 47%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
57.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
57.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 6 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+18
55.9%
Diego Pavia run for 18 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
50.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 13 yds to the MIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
47.6%
AJ Newberry run for no gain to the MIZ 34Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
46.9%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
49.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:06
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
53.2%
Brock Taylor 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:0863% → 60%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
62.8%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the MIZ 35Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
62.9%
Brady Cook run for 9 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
65.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 4
50
+3
64.9%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
63.6%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the VAN 47Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
60.2%
Luke Bauer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23END OF GAME
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0949% → 47%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
51.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 10Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-1
51.2%
(00:42) [NHSG] Kneel down by VANDY at VANDY9 (team loss of 1), clock 00:41.Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 8
OWN 9
-6
53.0%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 6 yards to the VAN 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 76%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
41.1%
(00:00) PAVIA, Diego pass to the right complete for 0 yards to STOWERS, Eli caught at the MIZZOU25 and advanced to the MIZZOU25 (WALKER, Johnny). PENALTY MIZZOU Unnecessary Roughness on HICKS, Chuck enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the MIZZOU25 to the MIZZOU12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-6
41.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 18Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 16
OPP 18
+15
42.9%
Diego Pavia run for 15 yds to the MIZ 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+1
43.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the MIZ 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.3%
D. Pavia pass to G. Fisher for 2 yds for a TD (B. Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
65.6%
Luther Burden III 25 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Blake Craig Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26FG
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0066% → 84%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
65.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 4 yds to the VAN 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
65.6%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the VAN 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
83.7%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 27MISSED FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0029% → 15%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
71.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 2 yds to the MIZ 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+11
71.4%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the MIZ 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
71.4%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 15Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 15
-15
74.5%
(00:00) PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for SHERRILL, Junior broken up by PRIDE JR., Toriano at the MIZZOU0. PENALTY VANDY Pass Interference on SHERRILL, Junior enforced 15 yards to the MIZZOU30 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 28
OPP 30
+17
75.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 17 yds to the MIZ 13Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
79.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+31
85.3%
Brock Taylor 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Luther Burden III 25 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Blake Craig Kick)
+41.2
TD · Q3 0:21
A. Newberry run for 4 yds for a TD (B. Taylor KICK)
-19.9
TD · OT 0:00
D. Pavia pass to G. Fisher for 2 yds for a TD (B. Taylor KICK)
-18.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com