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GASO

Georgia Southern 13 at Ole Miss 52

MISS
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:31 · Alex Smith punt for 40 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the GASO 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+14.7Home team on offense+36.2Score differential+29.6Garbage-time factor+10.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.8Blowout margin+16.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:39: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 23 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:12: OJ Arnold pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK) — GASO win probability +1.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:08: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 70 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:00: JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:33: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:16MISS 4th & 10 at GASO 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:59GASO 4th & 19 at GASO 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:45GASO 4th & 2 at MISS 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:57GASO 4th & 4 at MISS 48, down 10
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:47MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 28, up 10
    Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:49GASO 4th & 20 at GASO 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:20GASO 4th & 14 at GASO 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:53MISS 4th & 6 at GASO 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:59GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:35GASO 4th & 15 at MISS 42, down 17
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:05GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:14GASO 4th & 13 at MISS 24, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:33GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:05MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 31, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:31GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 27, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:56GASO 4th & 11 at MISS 15, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:29MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:39MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:12GASO Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:08MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:00MISS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:33MISS Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:30MISS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:37MISS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3099% → 99%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
98.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 40 yds to the GASO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
98.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2FUMBLE
1 play · -17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-17
98.6%
Dalen Cobb run for a loss of 17 yards to the GASO 8 Dalen Cobb fumbled, recovered by MISS JJ Pegues J. Pegues return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Q1 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
98.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 9Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
98.5%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 10Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
98.5%
Caden Davis 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
JC French pass complete to Tyler Fromm for no gain to the GASO 25Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.4%
JC French pass complete to Jalen White for 3 yds to the GASO 28Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
98.4%
(12:12) FRENCH, JC pass deep to the right incomplete intended for COBB, Dalen thrown to the OM46, clock 12:07. PENALTY OM Holding on SAUNDERS JR., John enforced 10 yards from the GASO28 to the GASO38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
98.4%
(12:06) FRENCH, JC pass short to the right complete for 6 yards to COBB, Dalen caught at the GASO43 and advanced to the GASO44 (MOORE, Louis;SAUNDERS JR., John), clock 11:56. PENALTY GASO Pass Interference on BURGESS JR., Derwin enforced 15 yards to the GASO23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+6
98.4%
Jalen White run for 6 yds to the GASO 29Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 19
OWN 29
0
98.3%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 19
OWN 29
0
98.3%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
98.3%
Alex Smith punt for 45 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the MISS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:0598% → 98%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
98.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 12 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
98.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
98.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 45Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
98.1%
Georgia Southern Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
50
0
98.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 10
50
+2
98.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Matt Jones for 2 yds to the GASO 48Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+8
98.1%
Matt Jones run for 8 yds to the GASO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
98.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 18 yds to the GASO 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
98.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the GASO 19Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
98.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the GASO 13Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
97.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the GASO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
98.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 3 yds to the GASO 8Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-15
97.9%
(05:03) PARRISH JR., Henry rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO9 (SMITH, TJ), clock 04:58. PENALTY OM Chop Block on MCINTYRE, Reece enforced 15 yards from the GASO8 to the GASO23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 22
OPP 23
+23
98.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 23 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:262% → 3%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.2%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 13 yds to the GASO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
98.2%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 8 yds to the GASO 46Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-1
98.1%
JC French pass complete to Tyler Fromm for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 45Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
98.1%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
50
+2
98.0%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
98.0%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-10
98.0%
(01:38) FRENCH, JC scrambles up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the OM40 (WASHINGTON, Trey), clock 01:32. PENALTY GASO Holding on BROADWAY, Bryson enforced 10 yards from the OM45 to the GASO45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+13
98.1%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 13 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+4
98.0%
JC French run for 4 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
98.0%
(00:08) FRENCH, JC scrambles to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the OM35 (PEGUES, J.J.), clock 00:00. PENALTY OM Face mask on PEGUES, J.J. enforced 13 yards from the OM37 to the OM24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.9%
OJ Arnold run for no gain to the MISS 22Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+10
97.9%
(14:23) FRENCH, JC pass short to the left incomplete intended for BUNKLEY-SHELTON, LV thrown to the OM17, clock 14:18. PENALTY OM Holding on HAMILTON, Isaiah enforced 10 yards from the OM22 to the OM12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
96.8%
OJ Arnold pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:093% → 3%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
97.0%
OJ Arnold run for 5 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 49
-10
96.9%
(13:38) FRENCH, JC pass short up the middle complete for 12 yards to FROMM, Tyler caught at the OM46 and advanced to the OM37 (AMOS, Trey), clock 13:33. PENALTY GASO Holding on BROADWAY, Bryson enforced 10 yards from the OM49 to the GASO41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+12
97.0%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 12 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-1
96.9%
JC French sacked by Walter Nolen and Chris Paul Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 48Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
96.9%
Alex Smith punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:0797% → 97%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
96.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 14 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
96.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 16Similar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
96.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+12
96.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
96.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:47
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
96.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 39 yds , Josh Dallas returns for no gain to the GASO 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:483% → 3%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
97.0%
Jalen White run for 6 yds to the GASO 39Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+12
96.8%
JC French pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 12 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.7%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
96.8%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-10
96.9%
JC French sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 10 yards to the GASO 41Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
97.0%
Alex Smith punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:3497% → 98%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
96.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+70
98.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 70 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:442% → 2%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.8%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the GASO 26Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-7
97.7%
DeAndre Buchannon run for a loss of 7 yards to the GASO 19Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+2
97.7%
JC French pass complete to Jalen White for 2 yds to the GASO 21Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
97.7%
Alex Smith punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:1698% → 98%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
98.1%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+11
98.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
98.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 13 yds to the GASO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
98.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the GASO 39Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
98.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-1
98.1%
Matt Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the GASO 40Similar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
98.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13PUNT
15 plays · 18 yds · 3:123% → 2%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
97.3%
JC French pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 3 yds to the GASO 43Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+6
97.3%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 6 yds to the GASO 49Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
97.1%
OJ Arnold run for no gain to the GASO 49Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
97.1%
JC French run for 2 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.9%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
97.1%
OJ Arnold run for 5 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+7
96.9%
JC French pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 7 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
96.8%
Jalen White run for 3 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+3
97.0%
JC French run for 3 yds to the MISS 37 JC French fumbled, recovered by GASO JC French J. French return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-6
96.5%
Georgia Southern Penalty, False Start (LV Bunkley-Shelton) to the MISS 40Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-5
98.0%
JC French sacked by Chris Paul Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 42Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
98.1%
Alex Smith punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:2998% → 98%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
98.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 9 yds to the MISS 19Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 1
OWN 19
0
97.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+16
97.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 16 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
97.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the MISS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:413% → 3%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.2%
JC French pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 10 yds to the GASO 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.2%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 37Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
97.1%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GASO 41Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-6
97.1%
JC French pass intercepted Brandon Turnage return for 6 yds to the GASO 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:1197% → 99%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
97.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the GASO 32Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+4
97.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the GASO 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
97.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 6 yds to the GASO 22Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+11
97.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds to the GASO 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-15
97.5%
(11:16) DART, Jaxson pass to the right complete for 11 yards to HARRIS, Tre caught at the GASO1 and advanced to the GASO0, TOUCHDOWN OM, score nullified by penalty, clock 11:12 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY OM Pass Interference on HARRIS, Tre enforced 15 yards to the GASO26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 25
OPP 26
+21
97.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 21 yds to the GASO 5Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
97.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 3 yds to the GASO 2Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
97.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the GASO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.9%
Matt Jones run for no gain to the GASO 1Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.9%
JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:531% → 1%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.8%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 2 yds to the GASO 27Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
98.8%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for 7 yds to the GASO 34Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
98.8%
JC French run for a loss of 3 yards to the GASO 31Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
98.9%
Alex Smith punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2499% → 100%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
98.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 9 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
99.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 4 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.1%
Matt Jones run for 8 yds to the GASO 49Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+9
99.1%
Matt Jones run for 9 yds to the GASO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+35
99.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 35 yds to the GASO 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:110% → 0%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.8%
JC French pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
99.9%
David Mbadinga run for a loss of 2 yards to the GASO 24Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+15
99.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, Roughing the Passer on PAUL JR., Chris enforced (Chris Paul Jr.) to the GASO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Kam Franklin) to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
99.9%
David Mbadinga run for 2 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+15
99.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (JJ Pegues) to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.9%
JC French run for no gain to the MISS 21Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-2
99.9%
JC French pass complete to OJ Arnold for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 23Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 12
OPP 23
-1
99.9%
OJ Arnold run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 24Similar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+42
99.9%
Gavin Stewart 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 31 yds to the GASO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
99.9%
Matt Jones run for 8 yds to the GASO 36Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+36
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 36 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
JC French pass complete to Jalen White for 2 yds to the GASO 27Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
JC French pass complete to Josh Dallas for 1 yd to the GASO 28Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
JC French run for 4 yds to the GASO 32Similar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Alex Smith punt for 46 yds, downed at the MISS 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MISS 31Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted Chance Gamble return for a loss of 3 yards to the GASO 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Dexter Williams II pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
100.0%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to DeAndre Buchannon for 5 yds to the GASO 27Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Dexter Williams II pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Alex Smith punt for 40 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the GASO 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.9%
Domonique Thomas run for 7 yds to the GASO 40Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
Domonique Thomas run for 4 yds to the GASO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
99.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 17 yds to the GASO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
99.9%
Domonique Thomas run for 18 yds to the GASO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Domonique Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 25FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:370% → 0%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
David Mbadinga run for no gain to the GASO 25Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
100.0%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the GASO 22 fumbled, recovered by GASO Dexter Williams II D. Williams II return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+18
100.0%
Dexter Williams II run for 18 yds to the GASO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
David Mbadinga run for 3 yds to the GASO 43Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+17
100.0%
David Mbadinga run for 17 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
100.0%
David Mbadinga run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 45Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+31
100.0%
Dexter Williams II pass complete to Taylor Bradshaw for 31 yds to the MISS 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
100.0%
Dexter Williams II run for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 17Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+4
100.0%
Dexter Williams II run for 4 yds to the MISS 13Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-2
100.0%
David Mbadinga run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 15Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
100.0%
Gavin Stewart 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:38100% → 100%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
100.0%
Rashad Amos run for 2 yds to the MISS 14Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+6
100.0%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Micah Davis for 6 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+11
100.0%
Rashad Amos run for 11 yds to the MISS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
100.0%
Rashad Amos run for 5 yds to the MISS 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:08
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 70 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 14:12
OJ Arnold pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
-1.1
TD · Q3 9:00
JJ Pegues run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com