Try the model
UCLA

UCLA 17 at LSU 34

LSU
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:44 · Brody Richter punt for 50 yds, downed at the LSU 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+23.9Home team on offense−2.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:10: Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 20 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +1.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:57: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 45 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:02: Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 11 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK) — UCLA win probability +9.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:11: Josh Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:15: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 35 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCLA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:23UCLA 4th & 2 at LSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:29LSU 4th & 7 at UCLA 44, tied
    Close callWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    88.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:17UCLA 4th & 14 at LSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:11UCLA 4th & 26 at UCLA 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:11LSU 4th & 9 at UCLA 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    85.2%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:45LSU 4th & 5 at UCLA 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    81.8%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:44UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:30UCLA 4th & 23 at LSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:48LSU 4th & 5 at UCLA 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    94.3%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:19LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:10UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:57LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:02UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:11LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:15LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1392% → 92%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
92.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 17 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
92.0%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+21
92.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 21 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
92.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 5 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+23
91.8%
Josh Williams run for 23 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 5 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:358% → 10%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Ethan Garbers run for no gain to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+28
91.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 28 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
91.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 6 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
91.2%
T.J. Harden run for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
91.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+13
91.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 13 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
90.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jack Pedersen for 20 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 26 yds · 4:3190% → 89%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
90.3%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Lacy, Kyren, PENALTY UCLA offside 5 yards to the LSU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+4
90.3%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
90.3%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
90.0%
Caden Durham run for 5 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
90.0%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-5
89.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Will Campbell) to the LSU 42Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+11
89.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 11 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
89.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 3 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
89.4%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
89.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
88.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:0812% → 13%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
88.2%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Moliki MatavaoSimilar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
88.1%
Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+29
87.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 29 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
86.7%
T.J. Harden run for 3 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
86.5%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to J.Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-7
86.5%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Paris Shand and Sai'vion Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
87.0%
Mateen Bhaghani 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0986% → 89%
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.3%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Lacy, Kyren, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Stewart, Croix) 15 yards to the LSU40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
86.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 7 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
87.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 4 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
86.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 4 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+45
88.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 45 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 1:1112% → 12%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.7%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Dominick McKinley for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
87.8%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Jack PedersenSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-11
87.9%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Bradyn Swinson for a loss of 11 yards to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 26
OWN 9
+10
88.1%
Brody Richter punt for 61 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 10 yds to the LSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:4988% → 87%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
88.0%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
88.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+12
87.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 12 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
88.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
88.1%
Caden Durham run for 1 yd to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
87.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
86.9%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 37 yds, downed at the UCLA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8FUMBLE
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4414% → 15%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
86.5%
T.J. Harden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+11
86.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Moliki Matavao for 11 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
86.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Moliki MatavaoSimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+12
86.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 12 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
85.6%
T.J. Harden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
85.5%
Keegan Jones run for 3 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+13
85.3%
Ethan Garbers run for 13 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-11
85.0%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Bradyn Swinson for a loss of 11 yards to the UCLA 38 Ethan Garbers fumbled, forced by Bradyn Swinson, recovered by LSU Sai'vion Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3588% → 88%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
87.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
87.5%
Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+23
86.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 23 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
87.2%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
87.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
87.6%
Damian Ramos 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:0712% → 25%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
87.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 16 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
86.7%
Carter Shaw run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 1
50
+4
85.6%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 4 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
85.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 6 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+6
85.1%
T.J. Harden run for 6 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
84.6%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Reuben Unije) to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+4
86.0%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to T.J. Harden for 4 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+32
84.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Kwazi Gilmer for 32 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
83.8%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the LSU 3Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
83.2%
Garbers, Ethan pass incomplete to Shaw, Carter, PENALTY LSU holding (Johnson, JK) 2 yards to the LSU1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCLA.Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
83.9%
T.J. Harden run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-10
84.1%
Garbers, Ethan pass complete to Flores Jr., Rico for 1 yard to the LSU0, PENALTY UCLA holding (Unije, Reuben) 10 yards to the LSU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
85.1%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Moliki MatavaoSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
75.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 11 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4022% → 24%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
77.8%
Jalen Berger run for 13 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
76.3%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the UCLA 39Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
76.3%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Rico Flores Jr.Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+7
76.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jalen Berger for 7 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
76.4%
Brody Richter punt for 50 yds, downed at the LSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
16 plays · 96 yds · 6:1479% → 89%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
78.7%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+9
78.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 9 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
78.0%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+33
77.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 33 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
80.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
79.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+5
78.5%
UCLA Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the UCLA 43Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+8
79.7%
Josh Williams run for 8 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
80.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 5 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
80.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 4 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+8
78.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
79.7%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
79.3%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
77.9%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+5
80.1%
Nussmeier, Garrett pass incomplete to Lacy, Kyren, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Davies, Jaylin) 5 yards to the UCLA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q3 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.1%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:3815% → 14%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Bryce PierreSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Rico Flores Jr. for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+23
85.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 23 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
82.5%
Harden, T.J. rush for no gain to the LSU49, PENALTY LSU illegal procedure 5 yards to the LSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+17
81.8%
Keegan Jones run for 17 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
80.3%
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the LSU 22 UCLA Penalty, Clipping (-15 Yards) to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+8
82.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 8 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-23
80.7%
Ethan Garbers run for a loss of 23 yards to the UCLA 48 Ethan Garbers fumbled, recovered by UCLA Garrett DiGiorgioSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 35
OWN 48
+12
84.2%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jalen Berger for 12 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 23
OPP 40
0
85.8%
Brody Richter punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 4:5388% → 96%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
88.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 13 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
88.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 12 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
89.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 9 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+1
90.3%
Kaleb Jackson run for 1 yd to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
90.3%
Kaleb Jackson run for 6 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
90.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 2 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
90.1%
Kaleb Jackson run for 4 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kaleb JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+8
90.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
96.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 35 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16INT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:446% → 6%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Logan LoyaSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.9%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
93.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to J.Michael Sturdivant for 3 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-7
93.5%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Jay'viar Suggs for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
94.5%
Ethan Garbers pass intercepted Jardin Gilbert return for no gain to the UCLA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:5797% → 98%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
96.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 16 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
96.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+8
96.9%
Kaleb Jackson run for 8 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+3
97.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
97.3%
Kaleb Jackson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
97.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
97.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
98.0%
Damian Ramos 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:033% → 2%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Carter ShawSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 16 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Kwazi GilmerSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
97.7%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to J.Michael SturdivantSimilar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
97.8%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Kwazi GilmerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19END OF GAME
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:4498% → 99%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Trey'Dez Green for 9 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+4
98.5%
Caden Durham run for 4 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
98.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+1
98.7%
Major Burns run for 1 yd to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+20
98.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 20 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.9%
Ju'Juan Johnson run for no gain to the UCLA 45Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
98.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyle ParkerSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-5
98.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 15
50
-5
98.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 20
OWN 45
0
98.7%
Caden Durham run for no gain to the LSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:02
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 11 yds for a TD (Mateen Bhaghani KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q3 6:11
Josh Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+9
TD · Q4 11:15
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Caden Durham for 35 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com