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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:18 · Alex Raynor 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:39: Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +2.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:07: Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +5.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:18: Alex Raynor 34 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:12: Nick Poulos pass intercepted Maxwell Hairston return for 25 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:53: Rickey Hunt Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — OHIO win probability +1.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:28UK 4th & 8 at UK 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snapGo for it90.0%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.0%average punt
- Q1 10:46OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snapGo for it10.4%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.5%average punt
- Q1 5:48UK 4th & 3 at OHIO 12, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 88.1% before the snapGo for it88.1%50% to convertField goalTheir call88.0%−0.186% to makePunt87.3%−0.8average punt
- Q1 3:15OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snapGo for it12.1%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%average punt
- Q2 4:44UK 4th & 7 at OHIO 38, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.9%37% to convertField goal87.6%−0.338% to makePunt87.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 1:43OHIO 4th & 15 at OHIO 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it6.2%−0.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q3 11:36OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.2%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q3 5:18UK 4th & 8 at OHIO 16, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snapGo for it94.8%−0.532% to convertField goalTheir call95.2%81% to makePunt92.0%−3.2average punt
- Q3 3:45OHIO 4th & 14 at OHIO 21, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 1:53UK 4th & 1 at OHIO 46, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%70% to convertField goal99.2%−0.523% to makePunt99.4%−0.3average punt
- Q4 10:02OHIO 4th & 5 at OHIO 26, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5OHIO made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q2 14:39UK Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.1%97% to makeGo for two89.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:07UK Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:12UK Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:53OHIO Touchdown, down 21 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick1.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:38UK Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:45UK Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 2:2692% → 91%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
91.8%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 18 yds to the UK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
91.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 3 yds to the UK 44Similar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-2
91.4%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:359% → 9%
UKDrive 3FG10 plays · 52 yds · 4:4791% → 90%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
90.4%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 16 yds to the OHIO 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
90.3%
(08:15) WILCOX, Jamarion rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the OU15 (LEAKE, Blake;BRAWLEY, Austin), clock 08:10. PENALTY OU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the OU19 to the OU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3210% → 11%
Q1 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
89.5%
Nick Poulos pass complete to Rodney Harris II for 15 yds to the OHIO 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5TD7 plays · 80 yds · 3:2889% → 90%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
88.8%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 19 yds to the UK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
88.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for no gain to the OHIO 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+15
88.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 15 yds to the OHIO 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6FUMBLE13 plays · 60 yds · 6:3810% → 12%
Q2 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
89.8%
Nick Poulos pass complete to Coleman Owen for 14 yds to the OHIO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
89.5%
(13:16) TYUS III, Anthony rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the OU43 (RYBKA, Tre'vonn), clock 13:09. PENALTY OU Holding on ATKINSON, Christophe enforced 10 yards from the OU34 to the OU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+5
89.7%
Nick Poulos pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 5 yds to the OHIO 29Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+30
88.9%
Nick Poulos pass complete to Chase Hendricks for 30 yds to the UK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
87.9%
Nick Poulos run for a loss of 15 yards to the UK 20 Nick Poulos fumbled, recovered by UK J.J. Weaver J. Weaver return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4189% → 94%
OHIODrive 8PUNT11 plays · 20 yds · 2:227% → 7%
Q2 2:41
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
92.6%
Kentucky Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the OHIO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
92.5%
Nick Poulos pass complete to Coleman Owen for 13 yds to the OHIO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 15
OWN 40
-6
93.2%
Jack Wilson punt for 45 yds , Ja'Mori Maclin returns for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9END OF HALF12 plays · 48 yds · 1:1795% → 95%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
94.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 17 yds to the OHIO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
95.1%
(00:39) VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass to the right incomplete intended for MACLIN, Ja'Mori thrown to the OU34, clock 00:34. PENALTY OU Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the OU47 to the OU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 11
OPP 33
-10
94.8%
Brock Vandagriff sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the OHIO 43 Brock Vandagriff fumbled, recovered by UK Brock Vandagriff , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:247% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11FG14 plays · 67 yds · 6:0794% → 98%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+33
95.2%
(10:04) VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass deep to the left complete for 33 yards to KEY, Dane caught at the OU45 and advanced to the OU45 (BRAWLEY, Austin;PARODIE, Roman), 1ST DOWN, clock 09:55. PENALTY UKY Holding on FARMER, Jalen OU Offsides , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
95.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 19 yds to the UK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
95.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 7 yds to the OHIO 29Similar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
96.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 2 yds to the OHIO 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-25
99.7%
Nick Poulos pass intercepted Maxwell Hairston return for 25 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:270% → 0%
UKDrive 14DOWNS4 plays · 6 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.7%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 6 yds to the OHIO 49Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-3
99.8%
Brock Vandagriff run for a loss of 3 yards to the OHIO 49 Brock Vandagriff fumbled, recovered by UK Brock Vandagriff B. Vandagriff return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD6 plays · 51 yds · 2:000% → 2%
UKDrive 16TD8 plays · 56 yds · 3:0799% → 100%
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
98.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 9 yds to the OHIO 47Similar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
99.1%
(13:23) VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass short to the left incomplete intended for DINGLE, Jordan thrown to the OU30; QB hurried by HALE, Nathan, clock 13:15. PENALTY UKY Holding on RAY, Dylan enforced 10 yards from the OU33 to the OU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 20
OPP 43
-10
99.1%
(13:15) VANDAGRIFF, Brock scrambles to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the OU32 (BRAWLEY, Austin), clock 13:04. PENALTY UKY Holding on MINCEY, Gerald enforced 10 yards from the OU43 to the UKY47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 30
OWN 47
+14
98.8%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 14 yds to the OHIO 39Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+16
99.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 16 yds to the OHIO 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 10:02
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+11
99.9%
Jack Wilson punt for 44 yds , Ja'Mori Maclin returns for 11 yds to the UK 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18TD13 plays · 59 yds · 6:17100% → 100%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-13
99.9%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by Kadin Schmitz for a loss of 13 yards to the UK 44Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 23
OWN 44
+25
99.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 25 yds to the OHIO 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-10
99.9%
Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khamari Anderson) to the OHIO 40Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+20
99.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 20 yds to the OHIO 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19END OF GAME8 plays · 39 yds · 3:200% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:07
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+5.8
TD · Q2 14:39
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q3 5:12
Nick Poulos pass intercepted Maxwell Hairston return for 25 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+2