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ARK

Arkansas 24 at Auburn 14

AUB
2024 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2024 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:14 · Braylen Russell run for 2 yds to the AUB 34 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense−17.0Pregame prior+3.2Garbage-time factor−5.4Score differential−4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:44: Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +18.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:03: Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — ARK win probability +17.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:00: Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the AUB 43 — ARK win probability +10.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:50: Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 67 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +20.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:38: Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — ARK win probability +12.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:24ARK 4th & 15 at AUB 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:51ARK 4th & 3 at AUB 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−0.6
    28% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:47AUB 4th & 9 at ARK 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:02ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:51AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:24ARK 4th & 1 at AUB 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%−2.8
    27% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:04ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:20AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 37, down 7
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:13AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:32ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:14ARK 4th & 1 at AUB 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.8%−3.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:04ARK 4th & 1 at AUB 25, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%−3.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    63.4%−11.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:50AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:20AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 23, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:57ARK 4th & 20 at AUB 20, up 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:49ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:44AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:03ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:50AUB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:38ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:3536% → 36%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
63.7%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
63.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the ARK 25Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+22
63.7%
Taylen Green run for 22 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
63.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+16
63.5%
Taylen Green run for 16 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
63.3%
Taylen Green run for 9 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+10
63.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 10 yds to the AUB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
63.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ty Washington for 2 yds to the AUB 16Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
62.9%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-7
63.0%
Taylen Green sacked by Dorian Mausi Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the AUB 23Similar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+41
63.6%
Kyle Ramsey 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2INT
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:2364% → 64%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
63.5%
Hank Brown pass complete to Cam Coleman for 13 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
63.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
64.0%
Hank Brown pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 3 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+9
63.6%
Hank Brown run for 9 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
64.0%
Hank Brown pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 9 yds to the ARK 37Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+8
63.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the ARK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
64.1%
Hank Brown pass intercepted Doneiko Slaughter return for no gain to the ARK 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 7:0337% → 45%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
62.9%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
63.0%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 3 yds to the ARK 22Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+15
63.2%
(06:25) GREEN, Taylen pass to the right incomplete thrown to the ARK29, clock 06:18. PENALTY AUBURN Roughing the Passer on KEYS, Austin enforced 15 yards from the ARK22 to the ARK37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
62.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 8 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
62.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
50
0
61.8%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
50
0
62.0%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 10
50
+7
62.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Braylen Russell for 7 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 3
OPP 43
+6
62.2%
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
61.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the AUB 36Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+8
61.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 8 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
60.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 3 yds to the AUB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
60.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 17 yds to the AUB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
60.0%
Rodney Hill run for 3 yds to the AUB 5Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
59.8%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the AUB 1Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 49 yds · 2:5256% → 55%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
56.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+16
55.9%
Hank Brown pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 16 yds to the AUB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
55.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+24
56.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 24 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
57.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the ARK 45Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
57.1%
Hank Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
56.4%
Hank Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
54.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4345% → 46%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
54.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for no gain to the ARK 10Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
54.4%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+12
54.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 12 yds to the ARK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
53.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-7
52.4%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the ARK 21Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
53.8%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
54.3%
Devin Bale punt for 53 yds , Keionte Scott returns for no gain to the AUB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0353% → 50%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
53.3%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the AUB 27Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
52.7%
Malcolm Simmons run for 3 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-3
50.9%
Hank Brown pass complete to Damari Alston for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 27Similar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
49.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:1950% → 54%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
49.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 10 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
49.0%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 34Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+13
49.2%
Taylen Green run for 13 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
46.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the ARK 49Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
46.6%
Rodney Hill run for 4 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+3
46.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 3 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-6
46.1%
Taylen Green sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2452% → 50%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
50
+2
51.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the ARK 48Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
51.5%
Hank Brown run for 3 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
51.0%
Hank Brown pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 9 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
50.4%
Damari Alston run for 36 yds Damari Alston fumbled, recovered by ARK Stephen Dix Jr. S. Dix Jr. return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4555% → 54%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
44.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the ARK 24Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
43.5%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-1
43.6%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 26Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+1
45.8%
Devin Bale punt for 45 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 1 yd to the AUB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0645% → 45%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
45.3%
Hank Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-10
44.9%
Hank Brown pass intercepted Jayden Johnson return for 10 yds to the AUB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-33
39.1%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Sylvester Smith return for 33 yds to the AUB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12INT
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0347% → 50%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
47.4%
Hank Brown pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 25 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
49.7%
Hank Brown pass intercepted TJ Metcalf return for no gain to the ARK 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
44.2%
(00:22) Kneel down by GREEN, Taylen at ARK7 (team loss of 1), clock 00:18.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 18 yds · 2:3946% → 43%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
46.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 23Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
45.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
44.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 13 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
46.5%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Dillon Wade) to the AUB 31Similar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+1
45.5%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 32Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
44.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+5
43.3%
Arkansas Penalty, Offsides (Cameron Ball) to the AUB 37Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
44.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+6
42.5%
Oscar Chapman run for 6 yds to the AUB 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:1260% → 60%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
39.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-4
39.3%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 45Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
40.2%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Kayin Lee return for no gain to the AUB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4844% → 41%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
43.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
43.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q3 10:19
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
41.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3759% → 58%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
41.5%
Malachi Singleton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
41.8%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the ARK 26Similar
Q3 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
41.4%
Malachi Singleton run for no gain to the ARK 26Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
42.4%
Devin Bale punt for 51 yds, downed at the AUB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:4342% → 66%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
42.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
41.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+6
41.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+54
42.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 54 yds to the ARK 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
47.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the ARK 10Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
65.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4043% → 66%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.9%
Taylen Green run for 3 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
55.9%
(05:01) JACKSON, Ja'Quinden rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the ARK32 (CRAWFORD, Keyron), out of bounds, clock 04:56. PENALTY ARK Holding on NICHOLS, Addison enforced 10 yards from the ARK28 to the ARK18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+4
56.9%
Taylen Green run for 4 yds to the ARK 22Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+18
58.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 18 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.4%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
54.2%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+11
55.7%
Taylen Green run for 11 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
51.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-14
50.8%
Arkansas Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Taylen Green) to the ARK 42Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 19
OWN 42
+58
33.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:4038% → 39%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
38.4%
Malcolm Simmons run for 5 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
39.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+12
38.5%
Payton Thorne run for 12 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-21
38.6%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted TJ Metcalf return for 21 yds to the AUB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21FG
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5672% → 77%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
28.2%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
28.3%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+7
28.8%
Rodney Hill run for 7 yds to the AUB 36Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
28.0%
Braylen Russell run for 2 yds to the AUB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
24.4%
Braylen Russell run for 2 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
24.0%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+7
24.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rodney Hill for 7 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+43
22.8%
Kyle Ramsey 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 2:0522% → 42%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
22.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 2 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
21.0%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the AUB 33Similar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+67
41.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 67 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0963% → 90%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.5%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
37.7%
Taylen Green pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
39.3%
(09:35) GREEN, Taylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BRODEN, Tyrone thrown to the AUBURN40, clock 09:33. PENALTY AUBURN Pass Interference on KITE, Antonio enforced 15 yards to the ARK40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
34.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
33.4%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd to the ARK 46Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
33.0%
Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the AUB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
31.4%
Taylen Green run for 9 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+8
29.0%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 8 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
26.3%
Braylen Russell run for 14 yds to the AUB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
23.8%
Taylen Green run for 12 yds to the AUB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
23.4%
Braylen Russell run for 3 yds to the AUB 2Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
22.4%
Braylen Russell run for 1 yd to the AUB 1Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.9%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1711% → 6%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
11.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by Doneiko Slaughter for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 27Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 16
OWN 27
0
7.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 16
OWN 27
-4
7.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by Nico Davillier for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 20
OWN 23
0
6.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 3 yds · 1:1693% → 96%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
6.7%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 9 yds to the AUB 14Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+4
4.5%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 4 yds to the AUB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
4.4%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the AUB 10Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
4.2%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the AUB 10Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
4.4%
Taylen Green run for a loss of 10 yards to the AUB 20Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
0
4.3%
Braylen Russell run for no gain to the AUB 20Similar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
3.8%
Auburn Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the AUB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 71 yds · 0:524% → 6%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+11
3.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 11 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
4.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 10 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
4.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 8 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
4.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 7 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
4.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 6 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+9
5.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Perry Thompson for 9 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
5.9%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+18
6.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 18 yds to the ARK 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:50
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 67 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)
+20.9
TD · Q3 5:44
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q3 2:03
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-17.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com