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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreARK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:32 · Devin Bale punt for 51 yds, downed at the AUB 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 5:44: Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +18.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:03: Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — ARK win probability +17.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 0:00: Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 2 yds to the AUB 43 — ARK win probability +10.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:50: Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 67 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +20.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:38: Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — ARK win probability +12.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 10:24ARK 4th & 15 at AUB 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snapGo for it41.3%−0.216% to convertField goalTheir call41.5%70% to makePunt40.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 3:51ARK 4th & 3 at AUB 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call42.5%52% to convertField goal41.9%−0.628% to makePunt42.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 11:47AUB 4th & 9 at ARK 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snapGo for it50.8%−0.332% to convertField goal50.0%−1.125% to makePuntTheir call51.1%average punt
- Q2 9:02ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 21, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snapGo for it48.3%−1.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.0%average punt
- Q2 6:51AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snapGo for it45.1%−1.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.2%average punt
- Q2 3:24ARK 4th & 1 at AUB 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.2%70% to convertField goal54.5%−2.827% to makePunt55.2%−2.1average punt
- Q2 1:04ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snapGo for it55.2%−0.647% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.8%average punt
- Q3 12:20AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 37, down 7Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 40.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.6%−1.631% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt41.2%average punt
- Q3 10:13AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snapGo for it38.5%−1.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.9%average punt
- Q3 8:32ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snapGo for it60.1%−1.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.2%average punt
- Q4 14:14ARK 4th & 1 at AUB 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.0%71% to convertField goal69.8%−3.242% to makePunt69.3%−3.8average punt
- Q4 12:04ARK 4th & 1 at AUB 25, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snapGo for it74.6%71% to convertField goalTheir call71.5%−3.166% to makePunt63.4%−11.1average punt
- Q4 9:50AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt16.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:20AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 23, down 10Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 6.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.1%−1.09% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.1%average punt
- Q4 0:57ARK 4th & 20 at AUB 20, up 10Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 93.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.6%−2.19% to convertField goal94.7%75% to makePunt90.3%−4.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 14:49ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.8%97% to makeGo for two46.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:44AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.7%97% to makeGo for two54.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 2:03ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.7%97% to makeGo for two62.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:50AUB Touchdown, down 4 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call37.1%−0.297% to makeGo for two37.3%45% to convert
- Q4 3:38ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.2%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARKDrive 1MISSED FG11 plays · 52 yds · 4:3536% → 36%
AUBDrive 2INT7 plays · 48 yds · 3:2364% → 64%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
63.5%
Hank Brown pass complete to Cam Coleman for 13 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
64.0%
Hank Brown pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 3 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
64.0%
Hank Brown pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 9 yds to the ARK 37Similar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
64.1%
Hank Brown pass intercepted Doneiko Slaughter return for no gain to the ARK 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD16 plays · 81 yds · 7:0337% → 45%
Q1 6:25
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+15
63.2%
(06:25) GREEN, Taylen pass to the right incomplete thrown to the ARK29, clock 06:18. PENALTY AUBURN Roughing the Passer on KEYS, Austin enforced 15 yards from the ARK22 to the ARK37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+5
62.1%
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 10
50
+7
62.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Braylen Russell for 7 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+8
61.3%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 8 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
60.1%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 17 yds to the AUB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 49 yds · 2:5256% → 55%
ARKDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4345% → 46%
Q2 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+12
54.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 12 yds to the ARK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
53.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
54.3%
Devin Bale punt for 53 yds , Keionte Scott returns for no gain to the AUB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:0353% → 50%
ARKDrive 7DOWNS7 plays · 25 yds · 3:1950% → 54%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
49.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 10 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+3
46.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 3 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q2 3:24
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-6
46.1%
Taylen Green sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FUMBLE5 plays · 50 yds · 1:2452% → 50%
ARKDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4555% → 54%
Q2 1:04
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+1
45.8%
Devin Bale punt for 45 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 1 yd to the AUB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0645% → 45%
ARKDrive 11INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-33
39.1%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Sylvester Smith return for 33 yds to the AUB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12INT2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0347% → 50%
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
44.2%
(00:22) Kneel down by GREEN, Taylen at ARK7 (team loss of 1), clock 00:18.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14DOWNS9 plays · 18 yds · 2:3946% → 43%
ARKDrive 15INT3 plays · -2 yds · 1:1260% → 60%
Q3 11:07
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
40.2%
Taylen Green pass intercepted Kayin Lee return for no gain to the AUB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4844% → 41%
Q3 10:13
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3759% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD6 plays · 77 yds · 2:4342% → 66%
ARKDrive 19TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4043% → 66%
Q3 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-10
55.9%
(05:01) JACKSON, Ja'Quinden rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the ARK32 (CRAWFORD, Keyron), out of bounds, clock 04:56. PENALTY ARK Holding on NICHOLS, Addison enforced 10 yards from the ARK28 to the ARK18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+18
58.2%
Taylen Green pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 18 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-14
50.8%
Arkansas Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Taylen Green) to the ARK 42Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 19
OWN 42
+58
33.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20INT4 plays · 20 yds · 1:4038% → 39%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-21
38.6%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted TJ Metcalf return for 21 yds to the AUB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21FG8 plays · 20 yds · 2:5672% → 77%
Q4 12:52
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+7
24.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rodney Hill for 7 yds to the AUB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD4 plays · 75 yds · 2:0522% → 42%
ARKDrive 23TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:0963% → 90%
Q4 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
39.3%
(09:35) GREEN, Taylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BRODEN, Tyrone thrown to the AUBURN40, clock 09:33. PENALTY AUBURN Pass Interference on KITE, Antonio enforced 15 yards to the ARK40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24DOWNS4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1711% → 6%
ARKDrive 25DOWNS12 plays · 3 yds · 1:1693% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26END OF GAME8 plays · 71 yds · 0:524% → 6%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+11
3.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 11 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
4.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 10 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
4.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 8 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
4.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 7 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
4.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 6 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+9
5.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Perry Thompson for 9 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+18
6.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 18 yds to the ARK 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:50
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 67 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)
+20.9
TD · Q3 5:44
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 10 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)
+18.4
TD · Q3 2:03
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 58 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-17.1