2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:05 · Max Gilbert 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:11: Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:35: DeSean Bishop run for 53 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK) — TENN win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:05: Timeout Tennessee, clock 13:05 — TENN win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6KENT made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 12:57KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 8:11TENN 4th & 1 at KENT 1, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%59% to convertField goal99.0%−0.294% to makePunt98.5%−0.7average punt
- Q1 6:29KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 30, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 3:46KENT 4th & 23 at KENT 12, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 3:46KENT 4th & 23 at KENT 12, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 14:09KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 32, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 13:06TENN 4th & 1 at KENT 47, up 37Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:53KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 27, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 5:02KENT 4th & 15 at TENN 45, down 51Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.117% to convertField goal0.1%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 1:39KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 34, down 58Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 12:04TENN 4th & 12 at KENT 17, up 65Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.121% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%80% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 6:04KENT 4th & 10 at TENN 49, down 68Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 6:04KENT 4th & 10 at TENN 49, down 68Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 1:01TENN 4th & 1 at KENT 11, up 68Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.8%−0.287% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 14:05TENN 4th & 3 at KENT 3, up 68Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%44% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.6average punt
- Q4 9:24KENT 4th & 8 at TENN 33, down 71Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%49% to makePunt-0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 1:58TENN 4th & 5 at KENT 7, up 71Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.134% to convertField goal99.9%91% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 11:32TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:11TENN Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:56TENN Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:35TENN Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:02TENN Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:06TENN Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:49TENN Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:06TENN Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:19TENN Touchdown, up 64 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:520% → 1%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.6%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Jay Jay Etheridge for 7 yds to the KENT 42Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
99.6%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Ky Thomas for 2 yds to the KENT 44Similar
Q1 13:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+5
99.5%
run for 5 yds to the KENT 39 fumbled, recovered by KENT JD SherrodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD9 plays · 73 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 7 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
99.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 4 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Bru McCoy for 9 yds to the TENN 47Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
99.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 19 yds to the KENT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3SF4 plays · -25 yds · 0:501% → 1%
TENNDrive 4TD8 plays · 48 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
KENTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:341% → 1%
Q1 6:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+22
99.4%
Josh Smith punt for 43 yds , Squirrel White returns for 22 yds to the TENN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD4 plays · 51 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
KENTDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -13 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Luke Floriea for 5 yds to the KENT 30Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+21
99.5%
run for 21 yds to the KENT 12 fumbled, recovered by KENT JD SherrodSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 23
OWN 12
+9
99.5%
Josh Smith punt for 32 yds , Squirrel White returns for 9 yds to the KENT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD1 play · 53 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9TD10 plays · 48 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q1 2:25
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+11
99.6%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 11 yds to the KENT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
99.7%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun Iamaleava,Nico pass complete short right to Nimrod,Chas caught at KSU15, for 9 yards to the KSU10 (Dotson,Jaylen; Tucker,Tevin) PENALTY TENN Holding (Lampley,Jackson) 10 yards from KSU19 to KSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+10
99.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chris Brazzell II for 10 yds to the KENT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:510% → 0%
TENNDrive 11TD6 plays · 56 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:580% → 0%
TENNDrive 13TD9 plays · 54 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
99.7%
(09:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Iamaleava,Nico rush middle for 0 yards to the TENN46 (Woods,Mason) PENALTY TENN Holding (Johnson III,Larry) 10 yards from TENN46 to TENN36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
99.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Holden Staes for 16 yds to the KENT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 40 yds · 2:180% → 0%
TENNDrive 15TD6 plays · 90 yds · 1:45100% → 100%
KENTDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q2 1:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+35
99.9%
Josh Smith punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KENT 48 , Boo Carter returns for 35 yds to the KENT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD7 plays · 48 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
KENTDrive 18END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19FG11 plays · 58 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
KENTDrive 20PUNT11 plays · 26 yds · 5:450% → 0%
Q3 10:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
99.9%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 9 yds to the KENT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
99.9%
run for 11 yds to the KENT 40 fumbled, recovered by KENT JD SherrodSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 21
OWN 40
+9
100.0%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Chrishon McCray for 9 yds to the KENT 49Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+6
100.0%
Josh Smith punt for 37 yds , Braylon Harmon returns for 6 yds to the TENN 18Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 10
OPP 49
+6
100.0%
Josh Smith punt for 37 yds , Braylon Harmon returns for 6 yds to the TENN 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21FG13 plays · 79 yds · 6:52100% → 100%
Q3 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
Jake Merklinger pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 8 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22MISSED FG9 plays · 42 yds · 4:270% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23DOWNS15 plays · 62 yds · 7:17100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24END OF GAME6 plays · 19 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
100.0%
PENALTY KSU False Start (Farrell,Chris) 2 yards from KSU05 to KSU03. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:05
Timeout Tennessee, clock 13:05
+0.2
TD · Q1 8:11
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q1 3:35
DeSean Bishop run for 53 yds for a TD (Max Gilbert KICK)
+0.1