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BC

Boston College 21 at Missouri 27

MIZ
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+3.8MIZ 96.8%Blake Craig 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 27 · Q4 5:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:58 · Blake Craig 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior+4.4Home team on offense+25.7Garbage-time factor+13.0Score differential+12.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.3Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:44: Reed Harris 67 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Luca Lombardo Kick) — BC win probability +8.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:04: Luther Burden III 19 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Nate Noel Run for Two-Point Conversion) — MIZ win probability +10.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:31: Brady Cook run for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +7.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:58: Blake Craig 31 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:45: Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 38 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK) — BC win probability +20.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:31BC 4th & 4 at MIZ 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:49MIZ 4th & 7 at BC 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:10BC 4th & 4 at MIZ 47, up 4
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:20MIZ 4th & 6 at BC 48, down 4
    Close callPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:54MIZ 4th & 14 at BC 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    55.7%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:47BC 4th & 10 at MIZ 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:02BC 4th & 9 at BC 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:57MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:02BC 4th & 17 at BC 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−2.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:19MIZ 4th & 28 at MIZ 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:23MIZ 4th & 2 at BC 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    90.3%−0.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:58MIZ 4th & 6 at BC 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−3.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:09BC 4th & 1 at MIZ 41, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:31BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:44BC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:04MIZ Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    72.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:31MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:45BC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:2313% → 17%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
86.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
86.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for 7 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
86.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the BC 45Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+4
86.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
85.7%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 44Similar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 15
OWN 44
0
85.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
85.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+21
85.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
85.3%
Turbo Richard run for 3 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+14
85.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 14 yds to the MIZ 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
84.8%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Corey Flagg for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 20Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+2
84.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the MIZ 18Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+6
84.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 6 yds to the MIZ 12Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+12
82.6%
Jerand Bradley 12 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Luca Lombardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:3483% → 82%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
82.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
82.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 5 yds to the MIZ 24Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+9
82.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for 9 yds to the MIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
82.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+13
82.2%
Nate Noel run for 13 yds to the MIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
82.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 17 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
82.2%
Nate Noel run for 13 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
82.1%
Brady Cook run for no gain to the BC 24Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
81.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 3 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
81.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
82.0%
Blake Craig 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:3618% → 21%
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
81.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
81.5%
(02:07) CASTELLANOS, Thomas pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BRADLEY, Jerand broken up by PRIDE JR., Toriano at the BSC46, clock 02:04. PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on PRIDE JR., Toriano enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the BSC37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
80.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+5
80.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
79.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 7
50
+3
79.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
79.4%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the MIZ 47Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
79.5%
Sam Stone punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:4780% → 79%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
79.6%
Nate Noel run for 16 yds to the MIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
79.7%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the MIZ 43Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
80.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
79.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
79.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
79.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
78.5%
Luke Bauer punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 1:2822% → 30%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
77.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
77.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+15
77.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 15 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
69.7%
Reed Harris 67 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Luca Lombardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:1169% → 65%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
69.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 9 yds to the MIZ 21Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+6
69.4%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+44
69.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 44 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
69.8%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
69.0%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+5
67.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-6
67.9%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 16
OPP 23
+2
66.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 2 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 14
OPP 21
0
64.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+38
65.0%
Blake Craig 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7INT
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:2035% → 35%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
65.0%
(04:50) JONES, Datrell rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the BSC24 (NORWOOD, Dreyden), clock 04:48. PENALTY BSC Holding on TAYLOR, Logan enforced 10 yards from the BSC25 to the BSC15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-22
65.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass intercepted Reed Harris return for 22 yds to the BC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 1:1169% → 79%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
68.6%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+4
68.2%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+19
79.0%
Luther Burden III 19 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Nate Noel Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 2:1326% → 28%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
74.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
73.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 12 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
72.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
72.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 11 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
70.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaedn Skeete for 12 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
69.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
69.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the MIZ 40Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
70.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
71.8%
Sam Stone punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FG
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:4274% → 80%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+18
73.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 18 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
74.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marcus Carroll for 6 yds to the MIZ 33Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
75.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 3 yds Luther Burden III fumbled, recovered by MIZSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+17
74.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 17 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
76.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Joshua Manning for 9 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+56
79.6%
Blake Craig 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2378% → 87%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.2%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
78.9%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+13
78.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 13 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
80.0%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+2
79.9%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the MIZ 49Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+38
79.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 38 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
80.5%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
80.4%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
87.3%
Brady Cook run for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2514% → 13%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.2%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
86.1%
Kye Robichaux run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 26Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
87.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
87.5%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 45 yds , Luther Burden III returns for 6 yds to the MIZ 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:5287% → 86%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
86.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
87.5%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
87.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the MIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
88.1%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the MIZ 49Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
88.1%
Brady Cook sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for a loss of 5 yards to the MIZ 44Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 15
OWN 44
0
86.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
86.0%
Luke Bauer punt for 42 yds , Cameron Martinez returns for no gain to the BC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:4513% → 12%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
86.7%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 20
-3
86.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the BC 20 Boston College Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Thomas Castellanos) to the BC 14Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+15
87.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jeremiah Franklin for 15 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
86.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-9
86.5%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Khalil Jacobs for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 25Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 17
OWN 25
-5
87.9%
Boston College Penalty, False Start (Jack Conley) to the BC 20Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 22
OWN 20
+5
88.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 5 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 17
OWN 25
0
88.4%
Ivan Zivenko punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 15:3586% → 87%
Q3 14:54
3RD & 34
OWN 38
+6
85.8%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
88.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 22 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
89.1%
Missouri Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Luther Burden III) to the MIZ 47Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 25
OWN 47
-5
88.6%
(01:16) COOK, Brady pass to the right complete for 23 yards to MANNING, Joshua caught at the BSC40 and advanced to the BSC30 (MARTINEZ, Cameron), out of bounds, clock 01:15. PENALTY MIZ Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on JOHNSON, Cam'Ron enforced 5 yards from the MIZ47 to the MIZ42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 30
OWN 42
-15
88.8%
(00:48) COOK, Brady pass to the left complete for 6 yards to BURDEN, Luther caught at the MIZ36 and advanced to the MIZ48, out of bounds, clock 00:43. PENALTY MIZ Personal Foul on MILLER, Mekhi enforced 15 yards MIZ Personal Foul on BURDEN, Luther enforced half the distance from the goal, 13 yards from the MIZ27 to the MIZ14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 58
OWN 14
+24
88.2%
Nate Noel run for 24 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 28
OWN 44
0
87.2%
Luke Bauer punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
87.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
87.3%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
88.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass intercepted Dreyden Norwood return for no gain to the MIZ 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17FG
16 plays · 48 yds · 7:1989% → 97%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
89.4%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-1
89.6%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 41Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+16
89.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 16 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
90.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
90.2%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
89.7%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:31
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+5
88.3%
(10:31) COOK, Brady pass up the middle incomplete intended for BLOOD, Daniel broken up by JOHNSON, Khari at the BSC37, clock 10:29. PENALTY BSC Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Khari enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the BSC32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
90.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 5 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+1
90.3%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+2
91.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 2 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+6
91.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
92.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+2
93.2%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the BC 11Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 3
OPP 11
-3
92.9%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 14Similar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
96.8%
Blake Craig 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:096% → 26%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+25
94.5%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
50
+6
93.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 6 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-1
92.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 45Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
93.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+3
94.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the MIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
74.0%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 38 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19END OF 4TH QUARTER
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:1290% → 96%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.9%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the MIZ 27Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
91.8%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the MIZ 28Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
92.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 11 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
94.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 6 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
95.1%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+6
95.2%
Brady Cook run for 6 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
95.5%
(01:10) Kneel down by MIZ at BSC48 (team loss of 1), clock 01:05.Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
96.1%
(00:28) Kneel down by MIZ at BSC49 (team loss of 1), clock 00:24.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:45
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Kamari Morales for 38 yds for a TD (Luca Lombardo KICK)
-20.6
TD · Q2 3:04
Luther Burden III 19 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Nate Noel Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+10.8
TD · Q2 9:44
Reed Harris 67 Yd pass from Thomas Castellanos (Luca Lombardo Kick)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com