Try the model
TOL

Toledo 41 at Mississippi State 17

MSST
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 14 yds to the TOL 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:26: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +6.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:35: Kyle Ferrie 23 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +3.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:09: Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +17.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:09: Willie Shaw III run for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK) — TOL win probability +17.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:11: Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +2.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:53MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:35TOL 4th & 4 at MSST 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:17MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:47TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:29MSST 4th & 18 at MSST 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:35MSST 4th & 5 at TOL 5, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−5.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:37MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:11TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 29, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:04MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 37, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.6%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:36TOL 4th & 1 at MSST 31, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:20TOL 4th & 3 at MSST 23, up 25
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:11MSST 4th & 1 at TOL 1, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:11TOL 4th & 3 at MSST 5, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:35TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:26TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:09TOL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:09TOL Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:05TOL Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:40MSST Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:11MSST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3677% → 77%
Q1 14:29
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+3
77.1%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 17
OWN 22
+1
77.0%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 23Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 16
OWN 23
+7
76.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 7 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
76.6%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:1323% → 28%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
76.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 29Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+4
76.6%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+17
76.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
50
+12
76.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 12 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
75.8%
Toledo Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 43Similar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+2
75.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+17
75.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Willie Shaw III for 17 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
75.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+12
74.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
74.7%
(08:12) QB Keeper GLEASON, Tucker rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the MSU8 (SMITH, Isaac), clock 08:10. PENALTY Before the snap, TOL Illegal Formation on RHETT, Cole enforced 5 yards from the MSU9 to the MSU14. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
-5
74.5%
(07:46) GLEASON, Tucker pass short to the left complete for 14 yards to NEWTON, Jerjuan caught at the MSU10 and advanced to the MSU0, TOUCHDOWN TOL, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:42 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, TOL Illegal Formation on JONES, JR., Allen enforced 5 yards from the MSU14 to the MSU19. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+12
74.5%
Tucker Gleason run for 12 yds to the MSST 7Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
74.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
74.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 3 yds to the MSST 4Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1873% → 71%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
72.5%
Blake Shapen sacked by Daniel Bolden and Cavon Butler for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 18Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
72.1%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+5
71.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 5 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
71.2%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:2429% → 30%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
71.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the TOL 18Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+27
71.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 27 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
70.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
69.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-3
69.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for a loss of 3 yards to the TOL 45Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
70.1%
Emilio Duran punt for 33 yds, downed at the MSST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 2:0970% → 68%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
69.8%
Davon Booth run for 3 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-2
69.7%
(02:14) SHAPEN, Blake pass short to the left complete for 2 yards to COLEMAN JR., Kevin caught at the MSU27 and advanced to the MSU27 (AWLS, Braden;SMITH, Avery), clock 02:11. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards to the MSU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 19
OWN 13
-7
69.3%
Blake Shapen sacked by Daniel Bolden for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 6Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 26
OWN 6
+3
68.4%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the MSST 9Similar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 23
OWN 9
+5
67.7%
(00:44) BARR-MIRA, Nick punt 41 yards to the MSU50, HAMMER, Bryson returned 33 yards to the MSU17 (COOPER, Ty), clock 00:31. PENALTY TOL Running Into the kicker on RAGIN, D'Andre enforced 5 yards from the MSU9 to the MSU14 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 18
OWN 14
+7
67.5%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 54 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 7 yds to the TOL 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:5433% → 41%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
67.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 5 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
66.7%
Tucker Gleason run for 9 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
66.4%
Willie Shaw III run for 11 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
65.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 6 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+24
65.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 24 yds to the MSST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
59.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 3:4361% → 61%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
61.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
61.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 2 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
61.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
61.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 9 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
61.1%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
60.2%
Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
59.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 10 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
59.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 26 yds to the TOL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
59.5%
Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the TOL 7Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
59.1%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
58.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 6 yds to the TOL 1Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
57.3%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the TOL 5Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
60.6%
Kyle Ferrie 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2640% → 63%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the TOL 26Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
59.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Eric Holley III for 6 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+31
59.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Larry Stephens for 31 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
57.7%
Willie Shaw III run for no gain to the MSST 37Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
56.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+16
56.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 16 yds to the MSST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
55.0%
Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the MSST 17Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+4
54.4%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the MSST 13Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+12
54.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.1%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3245% → 41%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
44.5%
Blake Shapen sacked by Jackson Barrow and Doran Ray Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 21Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+7
42.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 7 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
42.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 27Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
41.2%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 2:2263% → 90%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
36.7%
Mississippi State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on RUSSELL, De'Monte enforced (De'Monte Russell) to the TOL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
35.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+17
34.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 17 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
34.2%
Terrell Crosby Jr. run for 2 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+6
31.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 6 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+5
30.6%
Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
29.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+10
28.7%
(01:27) GLEASON, Tucker pass to the right incomplete intended for ZSIROS, Thomas broken up by POLLOCK, Brice at the MSU14, clock 01:22. PENALTY MSU Holding on POLLOCK, Brice enforced 10 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
28.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Willie Shaw III for 5 yds to the MSST 10Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
9.9%
Willie Shaw III run for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11INT
9 plays · 73 yds · 1:0411% → 9%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
11.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 30 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
11.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+14
11.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 14 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
11.6%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 9 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+8
11.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 8 yds to the TOL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
11.6%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+12
11.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 12 yds to the TOL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
8.7%
Blake Shapen pass intercepted, touchback. Avery Smith return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4988% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
11.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
11.1%
Tucker Gleason run for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL 29Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
10.8%
Emilio Duran punt for 43 yds, downed at the MSST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:599% → 9%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
8.9%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 29Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+6
8.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 6 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
8.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 2 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
8.5%
Davon Booth run for no gain to the MSST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:5692% → 95%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
8.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+17
7.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Justin Stephens for 17 yds to the MSST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
6.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the MSST 15Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
4.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:186% → 4%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
5.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
4.8%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+14
4.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Justin Ball for 14 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
4.6%
Johnnie Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+10
4.5%
(08:25) SHAPEN, Blake pass deep to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN JR., Kevin thrown to the TOL19, clock 08:19. PENALTY TOL Holding on SMITH, Avery enforced 10 yards from the MSU47 to the TOL43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-8
4.7%
Blake Shapen sacked by Anthony Dunn Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 49Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 18
OWN 49
+4
4.0%
Davon Booth run for 4 yds to the TOL 47Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+16
3.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 16 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
4.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 4 yds to the TOL 27Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
3.8%
Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+14
3.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 14 yds to the TOL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
4.1%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the TOL 9Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
3.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Mario Craver for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16FG
16 plays · 52 yds · 8:2096% → 99%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
3.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 12 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
3.4%
Connor Walendzak run for 3 yds to the TOL 40Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
3.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Connor Walendzak for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
50
0
2.5%
Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
50
-5
2.4%
(03:20) GLEASON, Tucker pass up the middle complete for 49 yards to STUART, Jacquez caught at the MSU43 and advanced to the MSU1 (SMITH, Isaac;POLLOCK, Brice), clock 03:11. PENALTY Before the snap, TOL Illegal Formation on JONES, JR., Allen enforced 5 yards from the MSU50 to the TOL45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+13
2.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 13 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+2
1.6%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
1.4%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
1.3%
Willie Shaw III run for 5 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
1.2%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the MSST 31Similar
Q4 14:36
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
1.3%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the MSST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
1.0%
Connor Walendzak run for 6 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
0.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the MSST 23Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
0.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
0.9%
Dylan Cunanan 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Blake Shapen sacked for 0 yards to the MSST 25 Blake Shapen fumbled, recovered by TOL Esean Carter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 25 yds · 2:1899% → 100%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
0.7%
Connor Walendzak run for 6 yds to the MSST 19Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
0.6%
Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the MSST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
0.5%
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the MSST 13Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
0.4%
Connor Walendzak run for 13 yds Connor Walendzak fumbled, recovered by MSSTSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:390% → 3%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
0.4%
Johnnie Daniels run for 10 yds to the MSST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
0.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (Cameron Ball) to the MSST 25Similar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+15
0.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 15 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+45
0.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Mario Craver for 45 yds to the TOL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
0.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 3 yds to the TOL 12Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+5
0.3%
Toledo Penalty, Delay Of Game (Braden Awls) to the TOL 7Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+5
0.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 5 yds to the TOL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
0.3%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Mario Craver) to the TOL 7Similar
Q4 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
0.4%
Johnnie Daniels run for 6 yds to the TOL 1Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for no gain to the TOL 1Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:5899% → 99%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
1.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 12 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
0.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 8 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+1
0.7%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the MSST 28Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
0.6%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the MSST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
0.5%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the MSST 9Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
0.5%
Willie Shaw III run for 3 yds to the MSST 6Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 4
OPP 6
-4
0.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 10Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+5
0.5%
Mississippi State Penalty, Offsides (Brylan Lanier) to the MSST 5Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
0.6%
Dylan Cunanan 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 53 yds · 1:061% → 1%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-15
0.7%
Mississippi State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the MSST 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
0.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 21 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
0.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Johnnie Daniels for 5 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+16
0.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Justin Ball for 16 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
0.7%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 14 yds to the TOL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:09
Willie Shaw III run for 10 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
-17.8
TD · Q2 5:09
Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
-17.2
TD · Q2 13:26
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com