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MISS

Ole Miss 40 at Wake Forest 6

WAKE
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+1.8WAKE 9.0%Matthew Dennis 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 23 - HOME 6 · Q2 0:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:13 · Matthew Dennis 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Pregame prior−31.0Home team on offense−13.6Score differential−7.7Garbage-time factor−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 5:22: Matthew Dennis 42 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +1.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:55: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD (Caden Davis PAT MISSED) — MISS win probability +1.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 4:44: Caden Davis 33 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +2.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:13: Matthew Dennis 37 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +1.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:39: Jaxson Dart run for 13 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 11MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:06WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:06MISS 4th & 1 at WAKE 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.3%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:22WAKE 4th & 4 at MISS 24, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:51WAKE 4th & 18 at WAKE 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:37WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 33, down 17
    Close callPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 37, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.1%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:46MISS 4th & 19 at MISS 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:01WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:47WAKE 4th & 9 at MISS 38, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:13WAKE 4th & 11 at MISS 19, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:13WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:28WAKE 4th & 4 at MISS 4, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:55WAKE 4th & 6 at MISS 15, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:02MISS 4th & 9 at WAKE 9, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:27WAKE 4th & 1 at MISS 31, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:37MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:48MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:55MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:39MISS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:27MISS Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2394% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
6.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 26 yds to the WAKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
6.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 8 yds to the WAKE 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+12
6.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 12 yds to the WAKE 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
6.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the WAKE 25Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+25
6.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 25 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:317% → 7%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
6.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Harry Lodge for 8 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
6.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the WAKE 41Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
6.9%
Demond Claiborne run for no gain to the WAKE 41Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-9
6.9%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Jared Ivey and JJ Pegues for a loss of 9 yards to the WAKE 32Similar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
7.4%
Ivan Mora punt for 50 yds , Micah Davis returns for no gain to the MISS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FUMBLE
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:0893% → 92%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
7.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 13 yds to the MISS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
7.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 32Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+33
7.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 33 yds to the WAKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
7.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 7 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
7.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
7.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the WAKE 26Similar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
7.4%
JJ Pegues run for 2 yds to the WAKE 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
7.3%
Matt Jones run for 7 yds to the WAKE 17Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 3
OPP 17
-4
7.9%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the WAKE 21 fumbled, recovered by WAKE BJ Williams B. Williams return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:368% → 10%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
8.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
8.2%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 24Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+24
8.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Donavon Greene for 24 yds to the WAKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
8.4%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GREENE, Donavon thrown to the OMS17. PENALTY OMS Holding on WASHINGTON, Trey enforced 10 yards from the WFU48 to the OMS42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
8.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 12 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
8.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cameron Hite for 5 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
8.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
8.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
9.7%
Matthew Dennis 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3490% → 91%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the MISS 25Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
8.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 75 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:579% → 9%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
8.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
8.6%
Wake Forest Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WAKE 20Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-3
8.6%
Demond Claiborne run for a loss of 3 yards to the WAKE 17Similar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
8.8%
Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:5691% → 93%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
8.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 5 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+12
8.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the WAKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
8.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
8.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 4 yds to the WAKE 42Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+20
8.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 20 yds to the WAKE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
8.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
6.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD (Caden Davis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:187% → 7%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
7.3%
Hank Bachmeier run for 7 yds to the WAKE 32Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
7.4%
Tate Carney run for 1 yd to the WAKE 33Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
7.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
7.4%
Ivan Mora punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 2:5193% → 93%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
7.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
7.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 8 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
7.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+2
7.2%
JJ Pegues run for 2 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
6.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 9 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-10
6.8%
DART, Jaxson pass deep up the middle incomplete dropped by PRIESKORN, Caden broken up by HAZEN, Dylan at the WFU36. PENALTY OMS Holding on WILLIAMS, Jayden enforced 10 yards from the OMS48 to the OMS38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
6.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 38
-8
7.0%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Bryce Ganious for a loss of 8 yards to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
7.2%
Fraser Masin punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:458% → 8%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
7.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 21Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
7.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+16
7.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 16 yds to the WAKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
7.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
7.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+4
7.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Harry Lodge for 4 yds to the WAKE 41Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
7.8%
Ivan Mora punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11FG
17 plays · 71 yds · 6:1793% → 95%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
6.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 13Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+19
6.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 19 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
6.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 35Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+11
6.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
6.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
6.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 11 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
6.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the WAKE 40Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
6.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 8 yds to the WAKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
6.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Matt Jones for 5 yds to the WAKE 27Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+5
6.5%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the WAKE 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
6.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 8 yds to the WAKE 14Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+7
6.5%
Matt Jones run for 7 yds to the WAKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
6.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the WAKE 5Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
6.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the WAKE 4Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
6.7%
Ole Miss Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaxson Dart) to the WAKE 15Similar
Q2 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
4.7%
Caden Davis 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12FG
19 plays · 56 yds · 4:317% → 9%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tate Carney for 4 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
6.8%
Tate Carney run for 1 yd to the WAKE 30Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
6.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
50
-6
7.2%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 6 yards to the WAKE 44Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+17
6.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tate Carney for 17 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
6.9%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Jared Ivey and Louis Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 44Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+3
6.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 3 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 12
OPP 41
-5
6.5%
Wake Forest Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 46Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 17
OPP 46
+8
7.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 8 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+20
7.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 20 yds to the MISS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
8.5%
CLAIBORNE, Demond rush to the left for a gain of 12 yards to the OMS6 (HAMILTON, Isaiah). PENALTY WFU Unnecessary Roughness on GREENE, Donavon enforced 15 yards from the OMS13 to the OMS28, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with 5 yards on the play [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+9
8.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 9 yds to the MISS 19Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
8.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
7.2%
Demond Claiborne run for no gain to the MISS 19Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+37
9.0%
Matthew Dennis 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0694% → 92%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
5.8%
Ole Miss Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the MISS 37Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+13
5.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
7.9%
CLAIBORNE, Demond rush up the middle for a gain of 12 yards, CLAIBORNE, Demond fumbled at WFU37 forced by UMANMIELEN, Princely, recovered by OMS WASHINGTON, Trey at the WFU37, returned 0 yards to the WFU37, End of Play. PENALTY OMS Holding on CANADY, Jadon enforced 10 yards from the WFU25 to the WFU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:478% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
8.1%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
8.4%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ALEXANDER, Deuce thrown to the OMS40. PENALTY OMS Holding on SAUNDERS JR., John enforced 10 yards from the WFU38 to the WFU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
8.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for no gain to the WAKE 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
8.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the WAKE 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
0
8.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
8.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:2993% → 93%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
7.5%
Cayden Lee run for 13 yds to the MISS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
7.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 2 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
7.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 2 yds to the MISS 26Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
7.3%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted Dylan Hazen return for no gain to the MISS 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:169% → 9%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
8.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tate Carney for 11 yds to the MISS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
9.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
8.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
8.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+15
8.4%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MORIN, Taylor thrown to the OMS7, clock 11:02. PENALTY OMS Pass Interference on CANADY, Jadon enforced 15 yards to the OMS19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
9.1%
Tate Carney run for 1 yd to the MISS 18Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+9
9.2%
BACHMEIER, Hank sacked for a loss of 12 yards at the OMS30, fumble on the sack (forced by AMOS, Trey), recovered by OMS PAUL JR., Chris at the OMS30, returned 0 yards to the OMS30, End of Play, clock 10:32. PENALTY OMS Personal Foul on PERKINS, Suntarine enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the OMS18 to the OMS9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
9.2%
Tate Carney run for 2 yds to the MISS 7Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-14
9.2%
run for a loss of 14 yards to the MISS 21 fumbled, recovered by WAKE Hank Bachmeier H. Bachmeier return for 0 ydsSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+17
8.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 17 yds to the MISS 4Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
8.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 4:4993% → 98%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
7.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MISS 7Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+6
7.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 6 yds to the MISS 13Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+4
7.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
7.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+15
7.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 15 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
7.1%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the MISS 48 Matt Jones fumbled, recovered by MISS Reece McIntyre R. McIntyre return for 0 yds for a 1ST down Wake Forest Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Nick Andersen) to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
6.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 22 yds to the WAKE 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
6.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 18 yds to the WAKE 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
6.3%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Julius Buelow) to the WAKE 17Similar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+8
6.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 8 yds to the WAKE 9Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-10
6.3%
QB Keeper DART, Jaxson rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the WFU11 (WILLIAMS, BJ). PENALTY OMS Holding on WILLIAMS, Jayden enforced 10 yards from the WFU9 to the WFU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 17
OPP 19
+6
6.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 6 yds to the WAKE 13Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+13
1.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 13 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:443% → 2%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
2.5%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 4 yards to the WAKE 21Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+11
2.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 11 yds to the WAKE 32Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
2.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 4 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
2.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Walker Merrill for 10 yds to the WAKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
2.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 14 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
2.7%
Wake Forest Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 45Similar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+4
2.7%
Tate Carney run for 4 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+11
2.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Walker Merrill for 11 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
2.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 11 yds to the MISS 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
2.5%
Tate Carney run for 4 yds to the MISS 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
2.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
2.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:55
4TH & 6
OPP 15
0
2.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FG
17 plays · 76 yds · 5:5398% → 100%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
1.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MISS 21Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
1.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the MISS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
1.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 19 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
1.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 9 yds to the WAKE 46Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
1.5%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the WAKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
1.5%
Matt Jones run for 11 yds to the WAKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
1.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
1.5%
Cayden Lee run for 5 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+18
1.5%
Matt Jones run for 18 yds to the WAKE 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
0.8%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the WAKE 9Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-15
0.8%
DART, Jaxson pass short to the left complete for 7 yards to LEE, Cayden caught at the WFU5 and advanced to the WFU2 (GLASKER, Jamare). PENALTY OMS Pass Interference on WELLS JR., Antwane enforced 15 yards to the WFU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
+4
0.8%
Antwane Wells Jr. run for 4 yds to the WAKE 20Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
0.8%
DART, Jaxson pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HARRIS, Tre thrown to the WFU0. PENALTY WFU Pass Interference on GLASKER, Jamare OMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on POUNDS, Diego , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+11
0.8%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds to the WAKE 9Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
0.2%
Caden Davis 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:360% → 0%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.2%
Ty Clark III run for 5 yds to the WAKE 30Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
0.2%
Ty Clark III run for 14 yds to the WAKE 44 Ty Clark III fumbled, recovered by MISS Louis Moore L. Moore return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
0.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the WAKE 39Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+8
0.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the WAKE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
0.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 31 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22INT
11 plays · 51 yds · 5:200% → 0%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.1%
Jaydn Girard run for 3 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
0.1%
Ty Clark III run for 7 yds to the WAKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
0.1%
Michael Kern pass complete to Jaydn Girard for 25 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
0.1%
Ty Clark III run for 1 yd to the MISS 39Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+7
0.1%
Ty Clark III run for 7 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
0.2%
Ty Clark III run for 1 yd to the MISS 31Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+4
0.1%
Ty Clark III run for 4 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
0.1%
Ty Clark III run for 2 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+1
0.1%
Michael Kern pass complete to Ty Clark III for 1 yd to the MISS 24Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
0.1%
Michael Kern pass intercepted Suntarine Perkins return for no gain to the MISS 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
0.1%
Wake Forest Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the WAKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
0.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the WAKE 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+6
0.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the WAKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:39
Jaxson Dart run for 13 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
-4.7
FG · Q2 4:44
Caden Davis 33 yd FG GOOD
-2.5
FG · Q2 0:13
Matthew Dennis 37 yd FG GOOD
+1.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com