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ALA

Alabama 42 at Wisconsin 10

WIS
2024 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2024 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:40 · Atticus Bertrams punt for 15 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 116Home team on offense−45.9Pregame prior−10.2Score differential−42.0Garbage-time factor−15.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:43: Jalen Milroe 3 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick) — ALA win probability +4.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Germie Bernard 26 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick) — ALA win probability +8.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:40: Jam Miller 34 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick) — ALA win probability +5.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:26: Will Pauling 3 Yd pass from Braedyn Locke (Nathanial Vakos Kick) — WIS win probability +8.1 pts (now 10%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:11: Jalen Milroe 10 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick) — ALA win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 10 of 11ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:51WIS 4th & 10 at ALA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:49ALA 4th & 5 at WIS 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:41WIS 4th & 1 at ALA 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−1.0
    36% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:42ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:44WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.3%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:57WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:00ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 20, up 11
    Close callPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:33WIS 4th & 3 at ALA 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:35WIS 4th & 4 at ALA 37, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:26WIS 4th & 3 at ALA 3, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:43ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 30, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:40WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 39, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:00ALA 4th & 14 at WIS 43, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:18WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 16, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:52WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:11ALA 4th & 16 at ALA 44, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 0:20ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:43ALA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:19ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:40ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:26WIS Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:11ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:05ALA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:5414% → 17%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Chez Mellusi for no gain to the WIS 25Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
14.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Pauling for 11 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
14.8%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 9 yds to the WIS 45Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
15.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 2 yds to the WIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
15.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Chez Mellusi for no gain to the WIS 47Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
15.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Pauling for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 7
50
+15
16.2%
(11:00) VAN DYKE, Tyler scrambles to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the ALA45 (KOHT, Keanu), clock 11:01. PENALTY ALA Holding on JACKSON, Domani enforced 15 yards from the WIS50 to the ALA35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
16.6%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
16.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Tawee Walker for no gain to the ALA 35Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
16.9%
Nathanial Vakos 53 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
17.1%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:4983% → 81%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
17.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 10 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
17.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 34Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+10
17.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Emmanuel Henderson Jr. for 10 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+12
17.7%
Justice Haynes run for 12 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
17.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
17.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 12 yds to the WIS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
18.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the WIS 31Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+4
18.3%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the WIS 27Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
18.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+46
19.3%
Graham Nicholson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 4:1219% → 22%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
19.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 7 yds to the WIS 35Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
20.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the WIS 37Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
20.4%
Tawee Walker run for 4 yds to the WIS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
21.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 11 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
21.8%
Braedyn Locke sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the WIS 48 Braedyn Locke fumbled, recovered by WIS Chez Mellusi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 14
OWN 48
0
21.5%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+13
21.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 13 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
22.1%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the ALA 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:1478% → 81%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
21.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 26 yds to the WIS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
21.0%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the WIS 31Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
21.2%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the WIS 31Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+31
19.4%
Ryan Williams 31 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3020% → 20%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
20.1%
Tawee Walker run for 2 yds to the WIS 27Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
20.3%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
19.6%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 37 yds, downed at the ALA 36Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
19.8%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
20.1%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5880% → 79%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+6
20.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the ALA 37Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
20.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
20.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 5 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
21.0%
James Burnip punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:2621% → 21%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
20.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the WIS 7Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+21
20.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 21 yds to the WIS 28 Chez Mellusi fumbled, recovered by ALA Zabien Brown Z. Brown return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:2780% → 84%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
19.7%
Jam Miller run for 13 yds to the WIS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
19.8%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the WIS 11Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
20.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the WIS 7Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+2
20.6%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the WIS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
20.3%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the WIS 4Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
20.5%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 2 yards to the WIS 6Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
21.1%
(09:45) MILROE, Jalen pass to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Ryan thrown to the WIS0, clock 09:50. PENALTY WIS Offsides on HILLS, Elijah enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the WIS6 to the WIS3 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.4%
Jalen Milroe 3 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:3717% → 16%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.0%
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the WIS 28Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
17.2%
Tawee Walker run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 25Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 9 yds to the WIS 34Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
16.2%
Tawee Walker run for 3 yds to the WIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.9%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
16.8%
Cade Yacamelli run for no gain to the WIS 37Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+4
16.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 4 yds to the WIS 41Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
16.4%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 46 yds, downed at the ALA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3983% → 82%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
17.2%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the ALA 18Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+1
17.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 1 yd to the ALA 19Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+1
17.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Justice Haynes for 1 yd to the ALA 20Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
17.9%
James Burnip punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:1917% → 17%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
16.6%
Tawee Walker run for 8 yds to the WIS 24Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 2
OWN 24
0
17.0%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 2
OWN 24
0
16.5%
(03:08) LOCKE, Braedyn pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GREEN, Bryson thrown to the WIS45, clock 03:11. PENALTY ALA Offsides on SMITH, Tim declined ALA Pass Interference on BROWN, Zabien enforced 15 yards to the WIS39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
17.3%
Tawee Walker run for no gain to the WIS 39Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
17.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 12 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
18.2%
Cade Yacamelli run for 5 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+10
18.4%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 10 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
19.4%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
19.4%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 7 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
18.5%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
17.4%
Nathanial Vakos 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:0884% → 93%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+47
16.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 47 yds to the WIS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
7.5%
Germie Bernard 26 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
10.4%
Tawee Walker run for 7 yds to the WIS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1091% → 98%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
8.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 23 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
8.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 6 yds to the WIS 46Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+3
8.2%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the WIS 43Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+9
8.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 9 yds to the WIS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
2.3%
Jam Miller 34 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:052% → 10%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
2.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the WIS 26Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
2.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 10 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
2.0%
Chez Mellusi run for 11 yds to the WIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
2.1%
Cade Yacamelli run for 7 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+3
2.1%
Darrion Dupree run for 3 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
1.8%
(09:44) WALKER, Tawee rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the ALA36 (JEFFERSON, Justin), clock 09:36. PENALTY WIS Holding on RENFRO, Jake enforced 10 yards from the ALA43 to the WIS47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 20
OWN 47
0
1.5%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+16
1.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 16 yds to the ALA 37Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+5
1.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Cade Yacamelli for 5 yds to the ALA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
1.6%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
1.6%
Cade Yacamelli run for 17 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
1.6%
Cade Yacamelli run for 7 yds to the ALA 8Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+2
1.6%
Cade Yacamelli run for 2 yds to the ALA 6Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
1.7%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the ALA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
1.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the ALA 2Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
1.5%
Cade Yacamelli run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 4Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
1.5%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the ALA 3Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
9.6%
Will Pauling 3 Yd pass from Braedyn Locke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3494% → 95%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
5.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
5.1%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Leon Lowery Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 30Similar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
5.1%
James Burnip punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:047% → 7%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
7.3%
Wisconsin Penalty, False Start (Tucker Ashcraft) to the WIS 15Similar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+3
7.3%
Cade Yacamelli run for 3 yds to the WIS 18 Cade Yacamelli fumbled, recovered by ALA Que Robinson Q. Robinson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 1:0296% → 99%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
4.2%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the WIS 11Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+1
4.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the WIS 10Similar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
0.8%
Jalen Milroe 10 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:151% → 1%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+25
0.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 25 yds to the WIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
0.8%
(00:20) LOCKE, Braedyn pass deep to the left incomplete intended for KEKAHUNA, Trech thrown to the ALA24, clock 00:23. PENALTY WIS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BRUNNER, Joe enforced 5 yards from the WIS43 to the WIS38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+1
0.6%
Tawee Walker run for 1 yd to the WIS 39Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 14
OWN 39
-11
0.6%
Braedyn Locke sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the WIS 28 Braedyn Locke fumbled, recovered by WIS Joe Huber , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 25
OWN 28
+11
0.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 11 yds to the WIS 39Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
0.5%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 15 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:4199% → 100%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
0.7%
Richard Young run for 7 yds to the WIS 47Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+8
0.6%
Richard Young run for 8 yds to the WIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
0.6%
Richard Young run for 1 yd to the WIS 38Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-5
0.6%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Tyler Booker) to the WIS 43Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
0.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
0.5%
punt for 34 ydsSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 14
OPP 43
0
0.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
0.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the WIS 15Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+1
0.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the WIS 16Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 3
OWN 16
0
0.4%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 3
OWN 16
+20
0.4%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 41 yds , Ryan Williams returns for 20 yds to the WIS 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
1 play · 37 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
0.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 37 yds for a TD (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.2%
Darrion Dupree run for 3 yds to the WIS 28Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
0.2%
Darrion Dupree run for 1 yd to the WIS 29Similar
Q4 8:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 59 yds, downed at the ALA 12Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Braedyn Locke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 6:18100% → 100%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
0.2%
Daniel Hill run for 5 yds to the ALA 17Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+9
0.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Caleb Odom for 9 yds to the ALA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
0.2%
Daniel Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 25Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+7
0.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Caleb Odom for 7 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+7
0.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 7 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
0.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Rico Scott for 7 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
0.2%
Ty Simpson run for 2 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
0.1%
Daniel Hill run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
50
0
0.1%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
50
+2
0.1%
Daniel Hill run for 2 yds to the WIS 48Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-8
0.1%
Ty Simpson sacked by Christian Alliegro for a loss of 8 yards to the ALA 44Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
0.1%
James Burnip punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
0.1%
Darrion Dupree run for 8 yds to the WIS 19Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+1
0.1%
Darrion Dupree run for 1 yd to the WIS 20Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
0.1%
Darrion Dupree run for 2 yds to the WIS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
0.1%
Darrion Dupree run for 1 yd to the WIS 23Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+5
0.1%
Darrion Dupree run for 5 yds to the WIS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:19
Germie Bernard 26 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)
-8.6
TD · Q3 4:26
Will Pauling 3 Yd pass from Braedyn Locke (Nathanial Vakos Kick)
+8.1
TD · Q3 12:40
Jam Miller 34 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com