2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadALCN aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreALCN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:15 · Brock Taylor 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 5:15: Brock Taylor 35 yd FG GOOD — ALCN win probability +0.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:40: Eli Stowers pass complete to Cole Spence for 17 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +0.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:26: Diego Pavia run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:02: Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:05: Brock Taylor 46 yd FG GOOD — VAN win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 3ALCN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 13:10ALCN 4th & 6 at ALCN 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q1 5:15VAN 4th & 5 at ALCN 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.4%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call95.4%81% to makePunt95.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 13:46ALCN 4th & 8 at ALCN 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q2 8:14ALCN 4th & 10 at ALCN 20, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.327% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 2:25ALCN 4th & 8 at ALCN 7, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.331% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 0:05VAN 4th & 6 at ALCN 28, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.1%40% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%−<0.160% to makePunt97.3%−0.8average punt
- Q3 6:31ALCN 4th & 8 at ALCN 20, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:16ALCN 4th & 22 at ALCN 27, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:17ALCN 4th & 13 at ALCN 26, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:25ALCN 4th & 2 at ALCN 32, down 55Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:01VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 28, up 55Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 2:40VAN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.8%97% to makeGo for two95.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:26VAN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.1%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:02VAN Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:37VAN Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:06VAN Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:11VAN Touchdown, up 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartALCNDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:503% → 3%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.5%
Tyler Macon pass complete to Tavarious Griffin for 4 yds to the ALCN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2FG13 plays · 53 yds · 7:5597% → 96%
ALCNDrive 3INT4 plays · 14 yds · 2:214% → 5%
VANDrive 4TD1 play · 17 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
96.4%
Eli Stowers pass complete to Cole Spence for 17 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 3:544% → 4%
Q1 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
96.3%
VAUGHN, Xzavier pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MCGEE, Deablo thrown to the ASU45. PENALTY VU Holding on BERRY, Trudell enforced 10 yards from the ASU29 to the ASU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
96.2%
Xzavier Vaughn pass complete to Deablo McGee for 3 yds to the ALCN 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
95.7%
Xzavier Vaughn pass complete to Bakari McCall for 6 yds to the ALCN 48Similar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 3
OWN 46
-5
95.9%
GORMAN, Elijah punt 53 yards to the VU1 downed by HANEY, Tayvion, clock 13:58. PENALTY Before the snap, ASU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ASU46 to the ASU41. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+34
96.0%
Elijah Gorman punt for 39 yds , Martel Hight returns for 34 yds to the ALCN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6TD8 plays · 46 yds · 4:2096% → 98%
ALCNDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:073% → 3%
Q2 8:14
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+28
97.5%
Elijah Gorman punt for 42 yds , Martel Hight returns for 28 yds to the ALCN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD5 plays · 34 yds · 3:1297% → 99%
Q2 8:14
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+7
97.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 7 yds to the ALCN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 2:351% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10FG14 plays · 27 yds · 1:5599% → 100%
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
98.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tristen Brown for 6 yds to the ALCN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
98.7%
PAVIA, Diego scrambles to the right for no gain to the ASU43 (SPOTTSVILLE, Gideon), out of bounds. PENALTY VU Holding on HANSEN, Gunnar enforced 10 yards from the ASU43 to the VU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+11
98.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tristen Brown for 11 yds to the ALCN 42Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+10
98.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Tristen Brown for 10 yds to the ALCN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+5
98.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 5 yds to the ALCN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.6%
[NHSG] Kneel down by VAUGHN, Xzavier at ASU22 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT11 plays · 2 yds · 6:34100% → 100%
Q3 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
99.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-8
99.5%
Diego Pavia sacked by Stemarion Edwards for a loss of 8 yards to the ALCN 43Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 19
OPP 43
-7
99.5%
Diego Pavia sacked by Brendon Gibson for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 26
50
-10
99.7%
MIRCO, Jesse punt 43 yards to the ASU7, LATHAM, Terrick returned -2 yards to the ASU5 (RINALDI, Nick), clock 08:26. PENALTY VU Holding on GILLESPIE, Chase enforced 10 yards from the ASU50 to the VU40 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.7%
Xzavier Vaughn pass complete to Tevarrius Adams for 1 yd to the ALCN 19Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+1
99.7%
Xzavier Vaughn pass complete to Jacorian Sewell for 1 yd to the ALCN 20Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+8
99.8%
Elijah Gorman punt for 40 yds , Martel Hight returns for 8 yds to the VAN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14TD6 plays · 52 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q3 6:31
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+17
99.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 17 yds to the ALCN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 0 yds · 3:140% → 0%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Xzavier Vaughn pass complete to Omarion Blakes for 9 yds to the ALCN 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 30
-3
99.9%
Xzavier Vaughn sacked by Prince Kollie for a loss of 3 yards to the ALCN 27Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 22
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Franklin Rogers punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Martel Hight at the VAN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD1 play · 56 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 17PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · -3 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 12:17
4TH & 13
OWN 26
+57
99.9%
Franklin Rogers punt for 31 yds , Martel Hight returns for 57 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 18INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-18
100.0%
Roderick Hartsfield Jr. pass intercepted Alan Wright return for 18 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:380% → 0%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
99.9%
JOHNSON, Nate pass deep to the right complete for 79 yards to SKINNER JR., Quincy caught at the VU45 and advanced to the ASU0, TOUCHDOWN VU, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY VU Pass Interference on SKINNER JR., Quincy enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards to the VU11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALCNDrive 21END OF GAME13 plays · 41 yds · 7:010% → 0%
Q4 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+15
100.0%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Yilanan Ouattara) to the ALCN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
100.0%
Roderick Hartsfield Jr. pass complete to Omarion Blakes for a loss of 3 yards to the ALCN 32Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+15
100.0%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (Darren Agu) to the ALCN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:26
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 5:02
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+1.1
TD · Q1 2:40
Eli Stowers pass complete to Cole Spence for 17 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+0.9