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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadMCN aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreMCN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:42 · Finn Lappin punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:20: Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:27: Conner Weigman pass complete to Noah Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MCN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:35MCN 4th & 3 at MCN 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 4:02MCN 4th & 5 at MCN 46, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 8:33MCN 4th & 2 at MCN 33, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 0:44TA&M 4th & 6 at MCN 25, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%66% to makePunt99.5%−0.3average punt
- Q3 10:42MCN 4th & 6 at TA&M 49, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:59MCN 4th & 5 at TA&M 45, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%41% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.125% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:17MCN 4th & 8 at MCN 27, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:13TA&M 4th & 7 at MCN 35, up 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%37% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.145% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:23TA&M 4th & 2 at MCN 2, up 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.194% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 1:39MCN 4th & 1 at TA&M 41, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%70% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.132% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MCN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:44TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:19TA&M Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:20TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:27TA&M Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:36TA&M Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:55TA&M Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:25MCN Touchdown, down 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:06TA&M Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
MCNDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q1 11:59
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+5
99.6%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Curtis Deville Jr. for 5 yds to the MCN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD9 plays · 46 yds · 4:09100% → 100%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
99.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 12 yds to the MCN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.6%
(10:55) BUSSEY, Terry rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the MCN36 (DAVIS, Javon;DRIGGERS, Tristan), clock 10:52. PENALTY MCN Face mask on BENNETT, Crajaun enforced 15 yards from the MCN34 to the MCN19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
99.6%
DANIELS, Amari rush to the left for a gain of 14 yards to the MCN5 (MILES, Thomas;DAVIS, Javon), clock 10:34. PENALTY Before the snap, AM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MCN19 to the MCN24. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
99.5%
Texas A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Moose Muhammad III) to the MCN 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 3:251% → 1%
Q1 5:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.5%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Jonathan Harris for 16 yds to the MCN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
99.4%
(03:51) WEIGMAN, Conner pass deep to the right incomplete intended for THOMAS, Noah thrown to the MCN45, clock 03:45. PENALTY MCN Pass Interference on DAVIS, Javon enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the AM42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5TD10 plays · 73 yds · 4:2499% → 100%
MCNDrive 6INT2 plays · 2 yds · 0:391% → 1%
TA&MDrive 7TD7 plays · 35 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
MCNDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q2 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.7%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to D'Angelo Durham for 3 yds to the MCN 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:48100% → 100%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
99.6%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 13 yds to the TA&M 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+9
99.7%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Theo Melin Ohrstrom for 9 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
99.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Jacob Bostick for 14 yds to the MCN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
99.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 15 yds to the MCN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Conner Weigman pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 3 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 10INT5 plays · 30 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q2 2:37
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-12
99.9%
Kamden Sixkiller pass intercepted Marcus Ratcliffe return for 12 yds to the MCN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11FG6 plays · 15 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 32 yds · 4:110% → 0%
Q3 12:05
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+11
99.9%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Matthew McCallister for 11 yds to the MCN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD10 plays · 92 yds · 4:44100% → 100%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Noah Thomas for 5 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
99.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Tre Watson for 11 yds to the MCN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+31
99.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 31 yds to the MCN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 15TD20 plays · 75 yds · 10:290% → 0%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Jihad Marks for 6 yds to the MCN 31Similar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Cory O'Bryant for 6 yds to the MCN 43Similar
Q4 14:59
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+9
99.9%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Jer'Michael Carter for 9 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+14
100.0%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Jer'Michael Carter for 14 yds to the TA&M 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Kamden Sixkiller pass complete to Jalen Wright for 10 yds for a TD (Tyler Larco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16TD1 play · 65 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:460% → 0%
TA&MDrive 18DOWNS12 plays · 58 yds · 4:47100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:20
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 10:27
Conner Weigman pass complete to Noah Thomas for 15 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
+0.2