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TEX

Texas 31 at Michigan 12

MICH
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:57 · Michael Kern punt for 35 yds, downed at the MICH 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.0+26.50−26.5−53.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense−52.5Score differential−45.3Pregame prior−2.0Garbage-time factor−18.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:14: Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 21 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +3.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:24: Jerrick Gibson run for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +6.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:10: Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +6.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:28: Dominic Zvada 52 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +5.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:39: Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 7TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:58TEX 4th & 12 at MICH 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:29MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:23MICH 4th & 3 at TEX 19, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%−0.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−4.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:40TEX 4th & 8 at MICH 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:00MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:00TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:28MICH 4th & 6 at TEX 34, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:44TEX 4th & 13 at TEX 49, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:00MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 28, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:35MICH 4th & 6 at TEX 40, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:57TEX 4th & 19 at TEX 43, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:51MICH 4th & 5 at TEX 44, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:14TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:24TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:10TEX Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:39TEX Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:54MICH Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1MISSED FG
16 plays · 51 yds · 5:5473% → 71%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
26.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 2 yds to the TEX 26Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-5
26.9%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TEX 21Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 13
OWN 21
0
27.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+33
27.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 33 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
27.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
27.3%
Jaydon Blue run for 5 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
27.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 7 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
27.6%
Jaydon Blue run for 3 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
27.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+8
27.9%
Quinn Ewers run for 8 yds to the MICH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
28.0%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 28Similar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+6
28.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 6 yds to the MICH 22Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-2
28.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 24Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 11
OPP 24
-10
28.7%
(09:46) EWERS, Quinn pass deep up the middle complete for 24 yards to MOORE JR., DeAndre caught at the UOM0 and advanced to the UOM0, TOUCHDOWN TX, score nullified by penalty, clock 09:40 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TX Holding on WILLIAMS, Cameron enforced 10 yards from the UOM24 to the UOM34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 21
OPP 34
+9
29.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 9 yds to the MICH 25Similar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
29.5%
Bert Auburn 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2930% → 30%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
29.5%
Michigan Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 20Similar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
29.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
29.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
29.8%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
29.6%
Tommy Doman punt for 28 yds, downed at the TEX 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 3:0671% → 73%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
29.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 22 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
29.4%
Jaydon Blue run for 3 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
29.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 5 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
30.1%
Jaydon Blue run for 3 yds to the MICH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
30.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the MICH 21Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+21
27.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 21 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 5:4328% → 33%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
28.3%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
28.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
28.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to C.J. Charleston for 22 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
29.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+12
29.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 12 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
30.4%
Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 2 yds to the TEX 24Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+5
30.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 5 yds to the TEX 19Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
30.6%
Alex Orji run for no gain to the TEX 19Similar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
33.3%
Dominic Zvada 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:5168% → 75%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
32.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 11 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
31.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 9 yds to the TEX 44Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+6
31.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
50
0
31.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
50
+6
31.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 6 yds to the MICH 44Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+6
31.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 6 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
31.2%
Quinn Ewers run for no gain to the MICH 38Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+18
31.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 18 yds to the MICH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
31.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
31.1%
Jerrick Gibson run for 11 yds to the MICH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
31.1%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MICH 7Similar
Q2 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
24.6%
Jerrick Gibson run for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6INT
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:2625% → 25%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
25.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-3
24.8%
Davis Warren pass intercepted Andrew Mukuba return for 3 yds to the MICH 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7FG
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:1076% → 81%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
24.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
24.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+20
24.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 20 yds to the MICH 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
24.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the MICH 15Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
24.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 7 yds to the MICH 8Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
24.0%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MICH 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
23.7%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 11Similar
Q2 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
0
23.7%
Quintrevion Wisner run for no gain to the MICH 11Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
23.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 3 yds to the MICH 8Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
22.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
19.5%
Bert Auburn 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:3419% → 15%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
19.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for no gain to the MICH 30Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
19.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 9 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
20.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 38Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
19.4%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+6
15.1%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds Colston Loveland fumbled, recovered by TEX Jahdae Barron J. Barron return for 2 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:4984% → 93%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+23
16.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 23 yds to the MICH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
16.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 9 yds to the MICH 10Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+7
16.0%
Jaydon Blue run for 7 yds to the MICH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
15.4%
Quinn Ewers run for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 6Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
13.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 1 yd to the MICH 5Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
17.5%
(00:06) Kneel down by WARREN, Davis at UOM16 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:5412% → 11%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
12.1%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 22Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+7
11.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 7 yds to the MICH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
11.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+3
11.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
11.4%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
11.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5693% → 93%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
7.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 1 yd to the TEX 30Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+11
7.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 11 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
6.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 40Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+1
6.5%
Jaydon Blue run for 1 yd to the TEX 41Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
6.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+8
6.7%
Michael Kern punt for 42 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 8 yds to the MICH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:2010% → 12%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.7%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
9.6%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+24
9.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 24 yds to the MICH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
9.3%
Davis Warren run for 4 yds to the TEX 47Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+9
9.2%
Benjamin Hall run for 9 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
8.9%
Benjamin Hall run for 4 yds to the TEX 34Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+1
9.5%
Benjamin Hall run for 1 yd to the TEX 33Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-1
6.8%
Alex Orji run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 34Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+52
12.1%
Dominic Zvada 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4992% → 99%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
8.4%
(05:22) WISNER, Quintrevion rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the TX26 (HAUSMANN, Ernest), clock 05:15. PENALTY Before the snap, TX Illegal Shift on COOK II, Johntay enforced 5 yards from the TX25 to the TX20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+22
8.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 22 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+55
7.4%
Ryan Wingo run for 55 yds to the MICH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
6.6%
Quinn Ewers run for a loss of 5 yards to the MICH 8Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
5.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 1 yd to the MICH 7Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
1.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
1.2%
Davis Warren pass intercepted Derek Williams Jr. return for no gain to the MICH 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4499% → 99%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
1.1%
Jaydon Blue run for 2 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
1.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 3 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-3
1.1%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 46Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 8
OPP 46
-5
1.1%
Texas Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the TEX 49Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
1.1%
Michael Kern punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Morris at the MICH 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 50 yds · 6:591% → 0%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
0.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 16Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+2
0.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 18Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+4
0.8%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 4 yds to the MICH 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
0.7%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 1 yd to the MICH 23Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-10
0.7%
Michigan Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dominick Giudice) to the MICH 14Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+7
0.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Kendrick Bell for 7 yds to the MICH 21Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+7
0.5%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 7 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+12
0.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 12 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
0.6%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 16 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
0.6%
Davis Warren sacked by Colin Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 46Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
0.5%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+6
0.4%
Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 6 yds to the TEX 40Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
0.4%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
0.3%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
0.3%
Jerrick Gibson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 1
50
+2
0.3%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
0.2%
(06:18) EWERS, Quinn pass deep up the middle complete for 23 yards to COOK II, Johntay caught at the UOM32 and advanced to the UOM25 (JOHNSON, Quinten), clock 06:07. PENALTY TX Holding on NIBLACK, Amari enforced 10 yards from the UOM48 to the TX42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+1
0.2%
Jerrick Gibson run for 1 yd to the TEX 43Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 19
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 19
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Michael Kern punt for 35 yds, downed at the MICH 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:550% → 2%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
0.2%
Davis Warren pass complete to Marlin Klein for 7 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+22
0.2%
Davis Warren pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 22 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.2%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
0.2%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+5
0.2%
Davis Warren pass complete to Benjamin Hall for 5 yds to the TEX 44Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+6
0.2%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 6 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
0.2%
Davis Warren pass complete to Benjamin Hall for 7 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+31
2.3%
Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 31 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
0.7%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MICH 47Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+2
0.7%
Jerrick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
0.6%
Jerrick Gibson run for no gain to the MICH 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:10
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q2 8:24
Jerrick Gibson run for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
-6.5
FG · Q3 5:28
Dominic Zvada 52 yd FG GOOD
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com