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Buffalo 0 at Missouri 38

MIZ
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:59 · Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior+13.9Home team on offense+35.6Score differential+26.0Garbage-time factor+11.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.3Blowout margin+11.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:13: Luther Burden III run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:12: Brady Cook run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:00: Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the BUF 49 — MIZ win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:51: Brady Cook run for 31 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK) — MIZ win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:53: Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the MIZ 36 — MIZ win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 14:08BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:47MIZ 4th & 6 at BUF 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52MIZ 4th & 7 at BUF 32, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:23BUF 4th & 7 at MIZ 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:15BUF 4th & 14 at BUF 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:03BUF 4th & 4 at MIZ 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−0.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:58BUF 4th & 6 at MIZ 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:43BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 37, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:23MIZ 4th & 17 at MIZ 49, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:22BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 6, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:20BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 46, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:08BUF 4th & 17 at BUF 41, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:59MIZ 4th & 1 at MIZ 45, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:07MIZ 4th & 10 at MIZ 47, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:39BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 40, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 12:13MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:12MIZ Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:51MIZ Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:00MIZ Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:31MIZ Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:481% → 2%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
C.J. Ogbonna run for no gain to the BUF 25Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Ethan Duane punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:2099% → 98%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
98.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
98.5%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
50
+12
98.4%
Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
98.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 2 yds to the BUF 36Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
98.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the BUF 29Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-5
98.3%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BUF 34Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
98.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+51
98.2%
Blake Craig 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:072% → 2%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the BUF 25Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 15 yds to the BUF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
98.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-15
98.1%
C.J. Ogbonna pass intercepted Marvin Burks Jr. return for 15 yds to the MIZ 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3798% → 98%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
98.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+9
98.1%
Nate Noel run for 9 yds to the BUF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
98.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 3 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
97.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for no gain to the BUF 32Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
97.8%
Blake Craig 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:262% → 3%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
97.7%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the BUF 36Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+15
97.6%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 15 yds to the MIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
97.5%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the MIZ 48Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
97.4%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 2 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+7
97.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 7 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
97.2%
Jacqez Barksdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 40Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+4
97.1%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 4 yds to the MIZ 36Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
96.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
97.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 5:0597% → 97%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
97.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
97.0%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
96.9%
(00:59) BURDEN, Luther rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the MIZ50 (BROWN, Solomon), out of bounds, clock 00:57. PENALTY MIZ Holding on STEPHENS, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the MIZ47 to the MIZ37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+10
96.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 10 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
96.7%
(00:14) COOK, Brady pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to BURDEN, Luther caught at the MIZ47 and advanced to the BUF40, out of bounds, clock 00:00. PENALTY MIZ Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the MIZ47 to the MIZ42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+15
96.6%
(14:57) COOK, Brady pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Marquis broken up by PLEASANT III, Eddie at the BUF17, clock 14:54. PENALTY BUF Pass Interference on PLEASANT III, Eddie enforced 15 yards to the BUF43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
96.7%
Luther Burden III run for 18 yds to the BUF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
96.7%
Marcus Carroll run for 8 yds to the BUF 17Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+2
96.6%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the BUF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
96.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 7 yds to the BUF 8Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+5
96.4%
Marcus Carroll run for 5 yds to the BUF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.0%
Luther Burden III run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:493% → 3%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
96.8%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the BUF 25Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-5
96.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the BUF 20Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 12
OWN 20
-2
96.8%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 18Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
96.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:5397% → 98%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
96.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 9 yds to the MIZ 40Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-4
96.7%
Mekhi Miller run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 36Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+8
96.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.5%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 4
50
+9
96.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Jordon Harris for 9 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+39
96.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 39 yds to the BUF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
96.5%
NOEL, Nate rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the BUF1 (PLEASANT III, Eddie), clock 07:03. PENALTY Before the snap, MIZ Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the BUF2 to the BUF7. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
96.5%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the BUF 3Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.4%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.9%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:062% → 3%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.6%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 7 yds to the BUF 32Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+17
97.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 17 yds to the BUF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
97.3%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the MIZ 48Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
97.2%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
97.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the MIZ 45Similar
Q2 3:03
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
97.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:0998% → 99%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
97.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the BUF 49Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+8
97.8%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
97.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Joshua Manning for 10 yds to the BUF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
98.9%
Brady Cook run for 31 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 0:492% → 2%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Messiah Burch for 12 yds to the BUF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+29
98.5%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 29 yds to the MIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.3%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
98.3%
Messiah Burch run for 1 yd to the MIZ 33Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+3
98.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
98.4%
Nick Reed 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:5399% → 99%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
98.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the MIZ 36Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
99.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.0%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
99.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 4
50
+9
98.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 9 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
98.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 13 yds to the BUF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
98.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for a loss of 7 yards to the BUF 35Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+52
99.0%
Blake Craig 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:5999% → 99%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 5 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
98.7%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the MIZ 34Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
98.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
98.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 16 yds to the BUF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
98.8%
Marcus Carroll run for 1 yd to the BUF 46Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-5
98.8%
(12:07) COOK, Brady pass short to the left complete for 20 yards to COOPER, Mookie caught at the BUF42 and advanced to the BUF26 (COOPER, Marquis;DOLAC, Shaun), clock 12:00. PENALTY MIZ Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the BUF46 to the MIZ49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+8
98.8%
Brady Cook run for 8 yds to the BUF 43Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
98.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
98.7%
Buffalo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 10:191% → 1%
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
98.8%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 5 yds to the BUF 37Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
98.8%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
98.8%
Ethan Duane punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Daniel Blood at the MIZ 19Similar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.2%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for no gain to the BUF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:1399% → 99%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
98.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+18
98.8%
Brady Cook run for 18 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
98.8%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+12
98.9%
Nate Noel run for 12 yds to the BUF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nate Noel for no gain to the BUF 44Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
98.9%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 46Similar
Q3 6:27
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
99.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 12
OPP 46
-5
98.9%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MIZ 49Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
98.9%
Luke Bauer punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
98.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+2
98.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUF 6Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
99.0%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 8
OWN 6
0
99.0%
Ethan Duane punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Daniel Blood at the BUF 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:1499% → 100%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
99.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 2 yds to the BUF 45Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
99.0%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the BUF 39Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-10
99.1%
(04:19) NOEL, Nate rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the BUF36 (MURDOCK, Red;FOLSOM, Daishon), clock 04:17. PENALTY MIZ Holding on GREEN, Cayden enforced 10 yards from the BUF39 to the BUF49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 12
OPP 49
+27
99.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 27 yds to the BUF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
99.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 23Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+18
99.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Joshua Manning for 18 yds to the BUF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
99.2%
NOEL, Nate rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the BUF0, TOUCHDOWN MIZ, score nullified by penalty, clock 02:32 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MIZ Face mask on WALTERS, Mitchell enforced 15 yards from the BUF5 to the BUF20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+12
99.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 12 yds to the BUF 8Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.5%
Mookie Cooper run for 4 yds to the BUF 4Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the BUF 30Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
99.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 8 yds to the BUF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the BUF 41Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
99.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
C.J. Ogbonna pass complete to Victor Snow for 5 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 2 yds to the BUF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 1 yd to the BUF 49Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-6
99.9%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Jahkai Lang for a loss of 6 yards to the BUF 43Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 15
OWN 43
-2
99.9%
C.J. Ogbonna sacked by Chris McClellan and Triston Newson for a loss of 2 yards to the BUF 41Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Ethan Duane punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Daniel Blood at the MIZ 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 5:56100% → 100%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 3 yds to the MIZ 27Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 9 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Marcus Carroll for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 35Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 10 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for no gain to the MIZ 45Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
99.9%
PYNE, Drew pass up the middle complete for 14 yards to BLOOD, Daniel caught at the BUF39 and advanced to the BUF39 (FUQUA, Marcus), clock 08:24. PENALTY MIZ Holding on MEMBOU, Armand enforced 10 yards from the MIZ47 to the MIZ37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 4 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+1
99.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Daniel Blood for 1 yd to the MIZ 42Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+5
99.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 5 yds to the MIZ 47Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Luke Bauer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Victor Snow at the BUF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+19
99.9%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 19 yds to the BUF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
C.J. Ogbonna run for 2 yds to the BUF 34Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 6 yds to the BUF 40Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Jacqez Barksdale run for no gain to the BUF 40Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Ethan Duane punt for 13 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:52100% → 100%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 7 yds to the BUF 46Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 3
OPP 46
-4
99.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 6 yds to the MIZ 40 Missouri Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordon Harris) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
50
+6
99.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 6 yds to the BUF 44Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
99.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 3 yds to the BUF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 4 yds to the BUF 37Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+20
99.9%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 20 yds to the BUF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.9%
Kewan Lacy run for 8 yds to the BUF 9Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-1
99.9%
Kewan Lacy run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUF 10 Kewan Lacy fumbled, recovered by MIZSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+7
100.0%
Jamal Roberts run for 7 yds to the BUF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Jamal Roberts run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Messiah Burch run for 1 yd to the BUF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:12
Brady Cook run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 1:51
Brady Cook run for 31 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 12:13
Luther Burden III run for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Craig KICK)
+0.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com