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MSST

Mississippi State 23 at Arizona State 30

ASU
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.6ASU 71.3%Kyle Ferrie 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 10 · Q2 13:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:16 · Kyle Ferrie 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense+1.7Pregame prior+14.9Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:23: C.J. Fite 1 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Hershey Kick) — ASU win probability +8.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:34: Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK) — ASU win probability +7.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:33: Ian Hershey 46 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +5.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:09: Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie PAT MISSED) — MSST win probability +10.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:27: Kevin Coleman 80 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick) — MSST win probability +12.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:42MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:17MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:17ASU 4th & 1 at MSST 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:00ASU 4th & 8 at MSST 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16MSST 4th & 4 at ASU 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:33ASU 4th & 7 at MSST 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:34MSST 4th & 1 at ASU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−2.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ASU 4th & 1 at MSST 35, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−1.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:33ASU 4th & 5 at MSST 29, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:29MSST 4th & 3 at ASU 6, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    -1.4%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:22ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 19, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:10ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:42MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:40ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:27ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.6%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:31ASU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:23ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:34ASU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:29MSST Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:09MSST Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:27MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1829% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
70.6%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
70.6%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the MSST 33Similar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
70.5%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:1170% → 72%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
70.4%
Cam Skattebo run for 9 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
70.5%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
70.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 13 yds to the ASU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
70.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 8 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+2
70.6%
Kyson Brown run for 2 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
70.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
70.6%
Cam Skattebo run for 12 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
70.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
70.6%
Sam Leavitt run for 15 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
72.1%
Sam Leavitt run for 17 yds for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:1429% → 28%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 6 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
71.3%
Davon Booth run for 2 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
71.6%
Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
72.1%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Melquan Stovall at the ASU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 6:1772% → 73%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
71.8%
Cam Skattebo run for 14 yds to the ASU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
72.2%
Cam Skattebo run for 8 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+3
72.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
72.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 1 yd to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
72.2%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+10
71.8%
Sam Leavitt run for 10 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
71.9%
Sam Leavitt run for 3 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
72.3%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 21 yds to the MSST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
72.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
72.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 2 yds to the MSST 10Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-5
72.2%
PENALTY ASU False Start (Iheanachor,Max) 5 yards from MSU10 to MSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 13
OPP 15
+10
72.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 10 yds to the MSST 5Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 3
OPP 5
-5
71.9%
PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU05 to MSU10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
73.1%
Ian Hershey 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 3:4427% → 29%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.1%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
73.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 27 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
72.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 12 yds to the ASU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
72.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 7 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+2
71.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the ASU 27Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
72.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the ASU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
71.6%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+16
71.8%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 16 yds to the ASU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
71.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the ASU 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
71.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the ASU 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+32
71.3%
Kyle Ferrie 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:4373% → 74%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
72.6%
Cam Skattebo run for 12 yds to the ASU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
73.1%
Kyson Brown run for 3 yds to the ASU 40Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
73.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 9 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
73.8%
Sam Leavitt run for 9 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+9
74.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 9 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
74.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
74.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Markeston Douglas for 3 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
73.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
73.5%
Ian Hershey 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · -24 yds · 1:1026% → 17%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.5%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.7%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-13
75.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass complete deep right to Craver,Mario caught at ASU36, for 61 yards to the ASU13 (Robinson,Javan) PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Craver,Mario) 13 yards from MSU26 to MSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+1
83.5%
C.J. Fite 1 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Hershey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:4917% → 19%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.1%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kevin Coleman Jr. for 10 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.7%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
83.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass incomplete deep middle to Akharaiyi,Kelly thrown to ASU40 PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Abney II,Keith) 15 yards from MSU35 to MSU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
50
+1
81.7%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the ASU 49Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
82.2%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 9 yds to the ASU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
81.4%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the ASU 41Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+9
82.0%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 9 yds to the ASU 32Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
81.2%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the ASU 31Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 1
OPP 31
-1
81.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Keyvone Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the ASU 32 Mississippi State Penalty, Illegal Formation (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:0090% → 93%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
90.2%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 32Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
90.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+13
89.8%
Cam Skattebo run for 13 yds to the ASU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
90.6%
Cam Skattebo run for 10 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
90.6%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
90.5%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 4 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
90.1%
Cam Skattebo run for 2 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
90.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 16 yds to the MSST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
89.6%
Cam Skattebo run for 16 yds to the MSST 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.7%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd to the MSST 1Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.1%
Sam Leavitt run for 1 yd for a TD (Ian Hershey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
92.1%
run for 6 yds to the MSST 5 fumbled, recovered by MSST Blake Shapen , return for 2 yds to the MSST 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 8:2794% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.5%
Cam Skattebo run for 9 yds to the ASU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
93.6%
Cam Skattebo run for 7 yds to the ASU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
93.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for 7 yds to the ASU 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
93.8%
Sam Leavitt run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
50
+6
93.7%
Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
93.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 5 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
93.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
93.7%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the MSST 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
93.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
93.8%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-9
93.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Chamon Metayer for 1 yd to the MSST 30 Arizona State Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the MSST 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+6
93.7%
Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+5
93.7%
Cam Skattebo run for 5 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
99.4%
Ian Hershey 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:041% → 4%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 12 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
99.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+6
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 6 yds to the ASU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+18
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 18 yds to the ASU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
99.3%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 8 yds to the ASU 22Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+9
99.2%
Kevin Coleman Jr. run for 9 yds to the ASU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.2%
Davon Booth run for 5 yds to the ASU 8Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+1
99.2%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the ASU 7Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+1
99.3%
Davon Booth run for 1 yd to the ASU 6Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+6
96.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:0796% → 97%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.4%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 28Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
96.5%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jordyn Tyson for no gain to the ASU 28Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
96.4%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Branden Jennings for a loss of 4 yards to the ASU 24Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-5
96.1%
PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from ASU24 to ASU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
97.4%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:513% → 12%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+12
97.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 12 yds to the ASU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
97.5%
Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the ASU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+7
97.5%
Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the ASU 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+4
97.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the ASU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
97.1%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
97.3%
Johnnie Daniels run for 1 yd to the ASU 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
97.5%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+10
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass incomplete short right to Craver,Mario thrown to ASU18 PENALTY ASU Holding (Elliott,Keyshaun) 10 yards from ASU25 to ASU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
87.9%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5994% → 94%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 25Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.4%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Cam Skattebo for 6 yds to the ASU 31 Arizona State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
93.8%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:2810% → 8%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
90.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass complete short right to Craver,Mario caught at MSU48, for 14 yards to the MSU48 (Robinson,Javan) PENALTY MSU Holding (Pounders,Makylan) 10 yards from MSU34 to MSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+10
91.4%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Mario Craver for 10 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
90.5%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Mario Craver for 12 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
90.1%
Blake Shapen sacked by Elijah O'Neal for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 44Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-5
90.3%
Blake Shapen sacked by Keyshaun Elliott for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 39Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 17
OWN 39
0
92.2%
Blake Shapen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
92.4%
Nick Barr-Mira punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ASU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 4:0297% → 98%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 3 yds to the ASU 23Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
97.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 6 yds to the ASU 29Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+14
97.0%
Cam Skattebo run for 14 yds to the ASU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
97.3%
DeCarlos Brooks run for 3 yds to the ASU 46Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
97.3%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+1
97.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Xavier Guillory for 1 yd to the ASU 47Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 6
OWN 47
-5
97.0%
PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game 5 yards from ASU47 to ASU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
97.7%
Kanyon Floyd punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman Jr. at the MSST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
85.5%
Kevin Coleman 80 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19END OF GAME
16 plays · 50 yds · 5:2789% → 96%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.9%
Sam Leavitt run for 8 yds to the ASU 33Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
88.9%
Cam Skattebo run for 1 yd to the ASU 34Similar
Q4 5:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
88.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ASU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
90.3%
Cam Skattebo run for 10 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST down Arizona State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Leif Fautanu) to the ASU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
89.4%
Cam Skattebo run for no gain to the ASU 34Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
89.1%
Cam Skattebo run for 5 yds to the ASU 39Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+10
96.6%
Cam Skattebo run for 10 yds to the ASU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+39
97.5%
Cam Skattebo run for 39 yds to the MSST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
97.3%
Kneel down by Arizona St. at MSU14 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 12
OPP 14
-4
97.2%
Kneel down by Arizona St. at MSU18 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 16
OPP 18
-7
96.2%
Kneel down by Arizona St. at MSU25 for loss of 7 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:27
Kevin Coleman 80 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
-12.2
TD · Q4 13:09
Blake Shapen pass complete to Davon Booth for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie PAT MISSED)
-10.3
TD · Q2 8:23
C.J. Fite 1 Yd Fumble Return (Ian Hershey Kick)
+8.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com