Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 3 at Ole Miss 52

MISS
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:11 · Austin Simmons pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Pregame prior+6.1Home team on offense+34.2Score differential+30.5Blowout margin+16.7Garbage-time factor+13.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:10: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:52: Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:07: Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:30MISS 4th & 11 at MTSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:22MTSU 4th & 17 at MTSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:18MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:12MTSU 4th & 14 at MISS 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:26MTSU 4th & 10 at midfield, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:40MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:15MTSU 4th & 14 at MISS 14, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:40MTSU 4th & 6 at MISS 6, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:42MTSU 4th & 14 at MTSU 18, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:11MISS 4th & 6 at MTSU 24, up 49
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:17MTSU 4th & 23 at MISS 45, down 49
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:22MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:10MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:52MISS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:07MISS Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:00MISS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:10MISS Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:44MISS Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2899% → 99%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
99.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 12 yds to the MISS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
99.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 23 yds to the MTSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 6 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+10
99.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the MTSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
99.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 17Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 13
OPP 17
-3
99.3%
Matt Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 20Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+15
99.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 15 yds to the MTSU 5Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-5
99.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 10Similar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 6
OPP 10
-5
99.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jaxson Dart) to the MTSU 15Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
99.2%
Caden Davis 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:081% → 1%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Omari Kelly for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 24Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-4
99.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 20Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-5
99.1%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Illegal Snap on GUEVARA, Mateo enforced (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 15Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+3
99.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the MTSU 18Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+11
99.1%
Grant Chadwick punt for 48 yds , Micah Davis returns for 11 yds to the MISS 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
99.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 16 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
99.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 9 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+19
99.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 19 yds to the MTSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:531% → 1%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 4 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
99.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 2
OWN 24
-1
98.9%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 23Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
98.9%
Grant Chadwick punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:0199% → 99%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.9%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the MISS 41Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
98.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 8 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
98.9%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
98.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 18 yds to the MTSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
98.9%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
98.8%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the MTSU 27Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+14
98.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 14 yds to the MTSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
98.8%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the MTSU 11Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
99.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:471% → 1%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 6 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
98.9%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 32Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+7
98.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 7 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
98.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 18 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
98.9%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Princely Umanmielen for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 47Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 14
OPP 47
0
98.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MISS 47Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
98.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 14
OPP 47
0
98.9%
Grant Chadwick punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:1399% → 99%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
98.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
50
-8
99.0%
Jaxson Dart sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MISS 42 Jaxson Dart fumbled, recovered by MISS Matt Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+18
99.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 18 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+25
99.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 25 yds to the MTSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MTSU 9Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+2
99.0%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the MTSU 7Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+4
98.9%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the MTSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:241% → 1%
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.2%
Xavier Williams run for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.2%
Xavier Williams run for no gain to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
99.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.1%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 49Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
99.1%
(08:22) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass up the middle incomplete intended for WILLIS, Holden thrown to the OLE40, clock 08:17. PENALTY OLE Roughing the Passer on PAUL JR., Chris OLE Pass Interference on CANADY, Jadon Before the snap, MTS Illegal Formation on SCOTT, Morgan , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+1
99.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 10
50
0
99.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 10
50
0
99.1%
Grant Chadwick punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 4:1199% → 100%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
99.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 8 yds to the MISS 9Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+16
99.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 16 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
99.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 24 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
99.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 16 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+10
99.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 10 yds to the MTSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
99.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTSU 16Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+14
99.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 14 yds to the MTSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
99.2%
Jaxson Dart sacked by James Gillespie for a loss of 6 yards to the MTSU 8Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
99.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MTSU 3Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10FG
20 plays · 61 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
99.7%
(02:15) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass up the middle incomplete intended for CARTER, Gamarion thrown to the MTS38, clock 02:12. PENALTY OLE Pass Interference on GRAVES JR., Chris enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the MTS39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-5
99.7%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 34Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 15
OWN 34
-10
99.8%
(02:00) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass deep up the middle complete for 66 yards to KELLY, Omari caught at the OLE50 and advanced to the OLE0, TOUCHDOWN MTS, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:51 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MTS Holding on ELLIS, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the MTS34 to the MTS24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 25
OWN 24
+21
99.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hayes Sutton for 21 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+5
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Hayes Sutton for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 9 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+3
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 3 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+29
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 29 yds to the MISS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.7%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MISS 9Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
99.6%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Delay Of Game (Grant Chadwick) to the MISS 14Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
99.6%
Zeke Rankin 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:05100% → 100%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.7%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
99.7%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12INT
13 plays · 59 yds · 6:470% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 8 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 7 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
99.6%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+1
99.6%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
99.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 12 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 7 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+7
99.8%
Terry Wilkins run for 7 yds to the MISS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
99.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Myles Butler for 13 yds to the MISS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MISS 16Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted, touchback. John Saunders Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
99.8%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Jordan Thompson for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 17Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+19
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 19 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 12 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+42
99.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 42 yds to the MTSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.9%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the MTSU 9Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Matt Jones run for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 21Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-7
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 7 yards to the MTSU 14 Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by MISS TJ Dottery T. Dottery return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MTSU 12Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
99.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MTSU 10Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-15
99.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the MTSU 25Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 21
OPP 25
+24
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 24 yds to the MTSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 54 yds · 5:290% → 0%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Terry Wilkins run for 6 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 9 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kellen Stewart for 20 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
99.9%
Terry Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 26Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+15
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 15 yds to the MISS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
99.9%
(14:57) QB Keeper WILLIAMS, Xavier rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the OLE2 (BANKS, Tyler), out of bounds, clock 14:54. PENALTY MTS Holding on HOERSTKAMP, Ryan enforced 10 yards from the OLE11 to the OLE21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 20
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 20
OPP 21
+13
99.9%
(14:28) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIS, Holden thrown to the OLE7; QB hurried by COLEMAN, Khari, clock 14:22. PENALTY OLE Pass Interference on AMOS, Trey enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the OLE8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Xavier Williams run for no gain to the MISS 8Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
99.9%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nicholas Vattiato) to the MISS 18Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+12
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 12 yds to the MISS 6Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+26
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 26 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 16 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 14 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 42Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+16
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 16 yds to the MTSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ayden Williams for 13 yds to the MTSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
99.9%
(10:15) PARRISH JR., Henry rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the MTS7 (STEWART, James;HARRIS, Brendon), clock 10:11. PENALTY Before the snap, OLE Illegal Shift on HARRIS, Tre enforced 5 yards from the MTS13 to the MTS18. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 15
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 15
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:440% → 0%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
100.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the MTSU 11Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+11
100.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 11 yds to the MTSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Roman Gagliano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
100.0%
Roman Gagliano pass complete to Terry Wilkins for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 17Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+1
100.0%
Roman Gagliano pass complete to Ryan Hoerstkamp for 1 yd to the MTSU 18Similar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
100.0%
Trey Turk punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:25100% → 100%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
99.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+12
100.0%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Drew Burnett for 12 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
100.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
100.0%
Austin Simmons run for 2 yds to the MTSU 36Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+8
100.0%
Austin Simmons pass complete to Wyatt Smalley for 8 yds to the MTSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
100.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
100.0%
Austin Simmons run for 2 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
100.0%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:11
4TH & 6
OPP 24
0
100.0%
Austin Simmons pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+44
100.0%
Roman Gagliano pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 44 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
100.0%
Roman Gagliano pass complete to Cam'ron Lacy for 1 yd to the MISS 31Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-15
100.0%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Block below the waist on GUEVARA, Mateo enforced (Mateo Guevara) to the MISS 45Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-15
100.0%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Block below the waist on GUEVARA, Mateo enforced (Mateo Guevara) to the MISS 45Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 23
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Roman Gagliano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 23
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Roman Gagliano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 23
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Trey Turk punt for 36 yds, downed at the MISS 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
100.0%
Domonique Thomas run for 1 yd to the MISS 10Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+42
100.0%
Rashad Amos run for 42 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
100.0%
Rashad Amos run for 3 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
100.0%
Domonique Thomas run for 6 yds to the MTSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:07
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q1 2:10
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q2 10:52
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com