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CAL

California 21 at Auburn 14

AUB
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:46 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense−11.2Score differential−4.6Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:39: Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK) — CAL win probability +5.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 11:27: Jaivian Thomas run for 32 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK) — CAL win probability +18.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:13: (06:13) THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre thrown to the CAL0, clock 06:10. PENALTY CAL Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Nohl enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the CAL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). — AUB win probability +23.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:11: Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 41 — CAL win probability +18.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:20: (00:20) Kneel down by MENDOZA, Fernando at AUB47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00. — CAL win probability +23.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 5:01AUB 4th & 2 at CAL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:15CAL 4th & 7 at AUB 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−2.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:21AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:44CAL 4th & 3 at AUB 41, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−1.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:26AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:03CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:54CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:39AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−4.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:58CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:39AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−4.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:11CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:55CAL 4th & 10 at AUB 37, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:46CAL 4th & 10 at AUB 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−3.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:32CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:42AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:17CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:39CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:27CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1785% → 85%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 26Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
85.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
85.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 16 yds to the AUB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
85.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+41
84.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 41 yds to the CAL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
84.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
84.8%
Jeremiah Cobb run for no gain to the CAL 15Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
85.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 15 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2315% → 18%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 12 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
84.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 6 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
84.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
84.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 3 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
84.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 25 yds to the AUB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
84.2%
Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-5
84.1%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AUB 30Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+11
84.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the AUB 19Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+19
82.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 19 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:1483% → 82%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
82.9%
(07:15) HUNTER, Jarquez rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the AUB32 (MCCULLOCH, Ryan;BUCHANAN, Teddye), clock 07:11. PENALTY AUB Personal Foul on WADE, Dillon enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the AUB25 to the AUB13 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+16
82.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 16 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
82.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 15 yds to the AUB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
82.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
82.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 3 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+5
82.5%
(05:10) THORNE, Payton pass deep to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Cam thrown to the CAL28, clock 05:07. PENALTY CAL Offsides on BOLLERS, T.J. enforced 5 yards from the AUB47 to the CAL48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
82.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
82.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4MISSED FG
16 plays · 45 yds · 7:3819% → 22%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
81.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 5 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-4
81.0%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 49Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+10
81.1%
Fernando Mendoza run for 10 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
80.4%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AUB 46Similar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 15
OPP 46
0
80.5%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the AUB 46Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+14
80.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 14 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
79.1%
Jaivian Thomas run for 2 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
78.6%
Jaivian Thomas run for 7 yds to the AUB 23Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
78.1%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+13
78.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 13 yds to the AUB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
77.7%
Jaivian Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 14Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+3
77.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Corey Dyches for 3 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+9
78.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 9 yds to the AUB 7Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-5
77.8%
California Penalty, False Start (Mavin Anderson) to the AUB 16Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
78.3%
Ryan Coe 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-14
79.5%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Nohl Williams return for 14 yds to the AUB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 1:2523% → 29%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
76.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the AUB 19Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+6
76.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the AUB 13Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
70.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 13 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1772% → 70%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
72.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 24Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
71.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
71.1%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
70.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:3029% → 36%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
71.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 8 yds to the CAL 23Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+5
69.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
68.4%
(07:59) MENDOZA, Fernando pass to the left complete for 7 yards to MATTHEWS, Mikey caught at the CAL35 and advanced to the CAL35 (SMITH, Sylvester), clock 07:55. PENALTY Before the snap, CAL Illegal Motion on CALLOWAY, Kadarius enforced 5 yards from the CAL28 to the CAL23. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+18
68.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mason Starling for 18 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
66.5%
California Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CAL 36Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+16
67.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mason Starling for 16 yds to the AUB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
65.2%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 49Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+8
64.7%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mason Starling for 8 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
63.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
64.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1767% → 65%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
66.9%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
67.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
66.4%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
65.5%
Auburn Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the AUB 24Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
64.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 2:1738% → 40%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
61.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 8 yds to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
59.5%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 44Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
57.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 7 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
57.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 7 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-4
56.4%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Keldric Faulk for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 46Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 7
OPP 46
-6
56.5%
Fernando Mendoza sacked by Keldric Faulk for a loss of 6 yards to the CAL 48Similar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 13
OWN 48
+40
60.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds , Keionte Scott returns for no gain to the AUB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:5466% → 67%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
65.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 7 yds to the AUB 19Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-9
65.7%
(00:51) THORNE, Payton pass short to the right incomplete thrown to the AUB20; QB hurried by ULUAVE, Cade, clock 00:44. PENALTY AUB Holding on FAIRWEATHER, Rivaldo enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the AUB19 to the AUB10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+27
65.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 27 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
66.1%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+19
66.7%
Payton Thorne run for 19 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
68.1%
pass incomplete Auburn Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Payton Thorne) to the CAL 43Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+17
66.7%
Towns McGough 17 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:0641% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.9%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the CAL 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 9 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
58.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
58.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+3
59.3%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 3 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
56.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 58 yds, downed at the AUB 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 5:1557% → 49%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
56.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+4
56.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
55.7%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+5
55.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+18
53.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 18 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
55.4%
Payton Thorne sacked by Teddye Buchanan for a loss of 8 yards to the AUB 30Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+8
53.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 8 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
52.1%
Payton Thorne sacked by Teddye Buchanan for a loss of 5 yards to the AUB 33Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 15
OWN 33
0
49.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:3551% → 55%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
48.6%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
48.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 7 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+15
46.7%
(05:46) MENDOZA, Fernando pass short up the middle incomplete intended for STARLING, Mason thrown to the CAL30, clock 05:44. PENALTY AUB Roughing the Passer on BLOCTON, Malik enforced 15 yards from the CAL29 to the CAL44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
44.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
44.6%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
43.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
45.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 3:1249% → 43%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+8
48.8%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+7
48.6%
Damari Alston run for 7 yds to the AUB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
47.9%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 20
-12
47.2%
Payton Thorne sacked by Ja'ir Smith for a loss of 12 yards to the AUB 8Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 19
OWN 8
+7
44.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
42.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds , Mikey Matthews returns for no gain to the CAL 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1962% → 61%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
38.0%
Kadarius Calloway run for 2 yds to the CAL 46Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-1
37.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 45Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
37.2%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
39.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds , Keionte Scott returns for no gain to the AUB 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
42.4%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Ja'ir Smith return for no gain to the AUB 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0265% → 67%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
34.6%
Kadarius Calloway run for 6 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+1
31.4%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the AUB 40Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+3
30.8%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 3 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
30.0%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
29.9%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
30.4%
Fernando Mendoza pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+55
33.1%
Ryan Coe 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3240% → 42%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
39.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-8
42.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 8 yards to the AUB 36 Jarquez Hunter fumbled, recovered by CAL Craig Woodson C. Woodson return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:4471% → 89%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
28.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 4 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+32
10.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 32 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:1018% → 33%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.1%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
17.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
16.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 12 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
15.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
15.0%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+13
15.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 13 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
14.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 2 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+15
12.4%
California Penalty, Targeting on HARRIS, Marcus enforced (Marcus Harris) to the CAL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
12.7%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the CAL 9Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+7
12.2%
(07:36) THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Cam thrown to the CAL0, clock 07:35. PENALTY CAL Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Nohl enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the CAL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
12.2%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Connor Lew) to the CAL 7Similar
Q4 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
12.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the CAL 7Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
10.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for no gain to the CAL 7Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
9.4%
(06:13) THORNE, Payton pass to the right incomplete intended for LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre broken up by WILLIAMS, Nohl at the CAL0, clock 06:10. PENALTY CAL Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Nohl enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the CAL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
32.8%
(06:13) THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre thrown to the CAL0, clock 06:10. PENALTY CAL Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Nohl enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the CAL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q4 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
35.2%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23PUNT
13 plays · 29 yds · 3:1755% → 64%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
45.0%
Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 22Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
44.5%
Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 7 yds to the CAL 29Similar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
44.1%
Fernando Mendoza run for 10 yds to the CAL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
39.1%
Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the CAL 40Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+14
39.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 14 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
34.8%
Kadarius Calloway run for 2 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
32.0%
Kadarius Calloway run for 3 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
32.0%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 5
OPP 41
-5
34.4%
California Penalty, False Start (Ryan Yaites) to the AUB 46Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
35.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24INT
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:2244% → 48%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
44.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 12 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
48.2%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Nohl Williams return for no gain to the CAL 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3970% → 82%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
29.8%
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 41Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+7
27.8%
Jaivian Thomas run for 7 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+1
22.9%
Jaivian Thomas run for 1 yd to the CAL 49Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
18.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
35.3%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Lu-Magia Hearns III return for no gain to the AUB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
12.2%
(00:20) Kneel down by MENDOZA, Fernando at AUB47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:13
(06:13) THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre thrown to the CAL0, clock 06:10. PENALTY CAL Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Nohl enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the CAL2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+23.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:20
(00:20) Kneel down by MENDOZA, Fernando at AUB47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.
-23.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:11
Kadarius Calloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 41
-18.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com