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USF

South Florida 16 at Alabama 42

ALA
2024 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2024 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:01 · James Burnip punt for 24 yds, downed at the ALA 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Pregame prior+30.0Home team on offense+8.3Score differential+2.3Garbage-time factor+3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:28: Jalen Milroe 5 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick) — ALA win probability +1.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:35: Ta'Ron Keith 2 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick) — USF win probability +6.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:04: Kobe Prentice 16 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick) — ALA win probability +12.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:45: John Cannon 22 Yd Field Goal — USF win probability +5.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:50: Ryan Williams 43 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick) — ALA win probability +7.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 9 of 15
  1. Q1 11:26USF 4th & 13 at ALA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:20ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:07USF 4th & 6 at USF 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:04USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:41ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:11USF 4th & 15 at ALA 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:45USF 4th & 7 at ALA 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:33USF 4th & 7 at USF 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:59ALA 4th & 21 at ALA 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:19USF 4th & 8 at midfield, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:35USF 4th & 11 at ALA 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:01ALA 4th & 24 at ALA 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−2.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:29USF 4th & 8 at ALA 43, down 8
    Close callPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:41ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:24USF 4th & 20 at USF 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:07ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:19USF 4th & 7 at USF 15, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:50USF 4th & 1 at USF 13, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−3.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:45USF 4th & 4 at ALA 4, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%−2.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−11.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:20USF 4th & 7 at ALA 40, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%
    34% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:47USF 4th & 6 at USF 29, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:08ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:28ALA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:35USF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:04ALA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.8
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:50ALA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:30ALA Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:37ALA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 3:283% → 3%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
97.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 12 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
97.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-2
97.1%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 37Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+19
97.0%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Defensive Holding (Domani Jackson) to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
96.9%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+12
96.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 12 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
96.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
96.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+14
96.8%
Byrum Brown run for 14 yds to the ALA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
96.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the ALA 10Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
96.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 8
OPP 10
-5
96.6%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Mike Lofton) to the ALA 15Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 13
OPP 15
0
96.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 13
OPP 15
+34
96.6%
John Cannon 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0697% → 96%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 3 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kendrick LawSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.3%
James Burnip punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:134% → 4%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
96.4%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
96.3%
Kelley Joiner run for no gain to the USF 26Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
96.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
96.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 49 yds , Cole Adams returns for no gain to the ALA 26 South Florida Penalty, Defensive Holding (Rico Watson III) to the ALA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:5996% → 96%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
96.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 4 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+14
96.0%
Milroe, Jalen pass incomplete to Williams, Ryan, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference (Austin, Brent) 14 yards to the SOUFLA47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.Similar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
96.1%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+6
96.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Caleb Odom for 6 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
95.8%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+13
95.8%
Germie Bernard run for 13 yds to the USF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-7
95.7%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the USF 18 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Geno VanDeMark) to the USF 28Similar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 17
OPP 28
+19
95.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 19 yds to the USF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
95.5%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 10Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
95.8%
Jalen Milroe 10 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:044% → 4%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to JeyQuan SmithSimilar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 9 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
95.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Mbakwe at the ALA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2395% → 95%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
95.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the ALA 18Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 6
OWN 18
-5
95.3%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Tyler Booker) to the ALA 13Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 11
OWN 13
0
95.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 11
OWN 13
0
95.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to CJ DippreSimilar
Q1 2:41
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
95.0%
James Burnip punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:305% → 5%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.2%
Ta'Ron Keith run for no gain to the USF 37Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+20
95.1%
Byrum Brown run for 20 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
94.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 10 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
94.7%
Byrum Brown sacked by Que Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 40Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+1
94.8%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the ALA 39Similar
Q1 0:41
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+1
94.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 1 yd to the ALA 38Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 15
OPP 38
0
94.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · -13 yds · 2:1195% → 94%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.6%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the ALA 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-10
94.5%
Milroe, Jalen rush for 4 yards to the ALA27, PENALTY ALA holding 10 yards to the ALA13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:36
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+22
94.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 22 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
94.4%
Milroe, Jalen pass complete to Bernard, Germie for 20 yards to the SOUFLA45, PENALTY ALA holding (Montgomery, Roq) 10 yards to the ALA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 20
OWN 25
-8
94.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Kajuan Banks for a loss of 8 yards to the ALA 17 Alabama Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jalen Milroe) to the ALA 17Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 28
OWN 17
-10
94.0%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Jason Vaughn for a loss of 10 yards to the ALA 7Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 38
OWN 7
0
93.7%
James Burnip punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:156% → 8%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
93.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 3
50
+12
93.7%
Byrum Brown run for 12 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
93.6%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the ALA 36Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+16
93.5%
Byrum Brown run for 16 yds to the ALA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
93.1%
Byrum Brown run for 11 yds to the ALA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
93.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 13 TEAM fumbled, recovered by USF Byrum BrownSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
92.8%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the ALA 7Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
92.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Payten SingletarySimilar
Q2 9:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
92.5%
John Cannon 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:1793% → 94%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Milroe, Jalen pass complete to Prentice, Kobe for 53 yards to the SOUFLA22, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference off-setting, PENALTY ALA Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.8%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
92.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 12 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
93.1%
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the ALA 42Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+18
92.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 18 yds to the USF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
92.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Germie Bernard for 9 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-5
93.0%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Geno VanDeMark) to the USF 36Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+15
92.7%
Milroe, Jalen pass incomplete to Williams, Ryan, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference (Rucker, De'Shawn) 15 yards to the SOUFLA21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.Similar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
92.9%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the USF 16Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+5
92.8%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the USF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
92.7%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the USF 5Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
92.6%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the USF 5Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
94.2%
Jalen Milroe 5 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:556% → 6%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
94.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 24Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
94.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the USF 28Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
94.1%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Payten SingletarySimilar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
94.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 46 yds , Cole Adams returns for no gain to the ALA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3494% → 93%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
94.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-10
93.9%
Milroe, Jalen rush for 74 yards to the SOUFLA0, PENALTY ALA holding (Formby, Wilkin) 10 yards to the ALA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 20
OWN 16
-6
93.8%
Justice Haynes run for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 10Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 26
OWN 10
+5
93.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 5 yds to the ALA 15Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 21
OWN 15
+4
92.9%
James Burnip punt for 41 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 4 yds to the USF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:407% → 7%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
92.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
93.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 3 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-5
92.8%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Derek Bowman) to the USF 46Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+9
93.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Joshua Porter for 9 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 3
OPP 45
-5
92.8%
South Florida Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 8
50
0
93.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
93.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:168% → 7%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
92.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 3 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jihaad Campbell) to the ALA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.3%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Nay'Quan WrightSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
91.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-4
91.8%
Byrum Brown sacked by Tim Keenan III and Jihaad Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 35Similar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+53
92.7%
John Cannon 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:3493% → 92%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ryan WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
93.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-18
93.0%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Mac Harris for a loss of 18 yards to the ALA 21Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 24
OWN 21
0
91.9%
James Burnip punt for 24 yds, downed at the ALA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:329% → 8%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
91.1%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
91.0%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Kelley JoinerSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
91.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Kelley JoinerSimilar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 8
OPP 43
+38
92.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds for a touchback South Florida Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:3493% → 92%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.5%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 26Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
92.3%
Jam Miller run for 13 yds to the ALA 39 Jam Miller fumbled, forced by Mac Harris, recovered by USF Tavin WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:209% → 18%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
90.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 13 yds to the ALA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
89.9%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the ALA 23Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+8
89.7%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 8 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
89.6%
Byrum Brown run for 13 yds to the ALA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.8%
Ta'Ron Keith 2 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
82.1%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Jack Wilty) to the ALA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5486% → 85%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.1%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
85.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Germie BernardSimilar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
85.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
85.0%
James Burnip punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:1715% → 14%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
84.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 33Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
85.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Josh HardemanSimilar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-8
85.7%
Byrum Brown sacked by Tim Keenan III for a loss of 8 yards to the USF 25Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1786% → 84%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.6%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
86.5%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the ALA 40Similar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
85.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
84.3%
James Burnip punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4816% → 16%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
83.8%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 13Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-5
83.8%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 15 South Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (RJ Perry) to the USF 8Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+7
84.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 7 yds to the USF 15Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 7
OWN 15
0
83.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
84.1%
Andrew Stokes punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24FUMBLE
14 plays · 51 yds · 5:3585% → 83%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
84.9%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+6
85.1%
Miller, Jam rush for 5 yards to the SOUFLA44, PENALTY SOUFLA offside (Cheney, Rashad) 6 yards to the SOUFLA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
85.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 8 yds to the USF 35 Alabama Penalty, Illegal Block (Tyler Booker) to the USF 45Similar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 12
OPP 45
+15
84.5%
Milroe, Jalen pass incomplete to Prentice, Kobe, PENALTY SOUFLA roughing passer (Blue-Eli, Doug) 15 yards to the SOUFLA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALA.Similar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
85.6%
Milroe, Jalen pass incomplete, PENALTY ALA holding (Formby, Wilkin) 10 yards to the SOUFLA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+13
83.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 13 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+6
85.1%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the USF 21Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+5
83.7%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the USF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
84.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ryan Williams for 8 yds to the USF 8Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 2
OPP 8
-2
84.3%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+5
83.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Cole Adams for 5 yds to the USF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.1%
Justice Haynes run for no gain to the USF 5Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
83.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 3 yds to the USF 2Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 0
OPP 2
-2
83.0%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 4 Jalen Milroe fumbled, recovered by USF Bernard GoodenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5422% → 22%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
78.4%
Ta'Ron Keith run for 2 yds to the USF 6Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+5
78.2%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 11Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+2
78.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 2 yds to the USF 13Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 1
OWN 13
+28
78.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 49 yds , Jaylen Mbakwe returns for 28 yds to the USF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26TD
4 plays · 34 yds · 1:4682% → 94%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
82.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 14 yds to the USF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
82.0%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the USF 16Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
81.7%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the USF 16Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
93.8%
Kobe Prentice 16 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:199% → 17%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
90.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 14 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
90.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 19 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
88.9%
Byrum Brown sacked by Justin Jefferson for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 43 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Jefferson) to the ALA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
87.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 19 yds to the ALA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
87.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the ALA 9Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
87.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the ALA 7Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
88.3%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the ALA 4Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
83.1%
John Cannon 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 28TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5589% → 97%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.7%
Jam Miller run for 7 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+25
89.6%
Jam Miller run for 25 yds to the USF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
96.9%
Ryan Williams 43 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:304% → 2%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Abdur-Rahmaan YaseenSimilar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 12 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
95.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+18
96.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 8 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Defensive Holding (Domani Jackson) to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
96.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 1 yd to the ALA 42Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
96.0%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
97.0%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
97.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Joshua PorterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 30TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:5098% → 99%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
97.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+56
99.4%
Jam Miller 56 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 31DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:431% → 1%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Nay'Quan WrightSimilar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.7%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Abdur-Rahmaan YaseenSimilar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.7%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 32TD
1 play · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Justice Haynes 29 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 33END OF GAME
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
100.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 9 yds to the USF 30Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for no gain to the USF 30Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+5
100.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:04
Kobe Prentice 16 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)
+12.2
TD · Q4 5:50
Ryan Williams 43 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Graham Nicholson Kick)
+7.3
TD · Q3 9:35
Ta'Ron Keith 2 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com