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USC

USC 27 at LSU 20

LSU
2024 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2024 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:05 · Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior+11.1Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:04: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 19 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +10.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:42: Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 13 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:44: Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 28 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +49.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:47: Damian Ramos 31 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +18.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:08: Woody Marks run for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — USC win probability +39.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:05LSU 4th & 2 at USC 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.6%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:46LSU 4th & 3 at USC 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    61.6%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:29USC 4th & 3 at USC 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:21USC 4th & 5 at LSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:08LSU 4th & 6 at USC 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:29USC 4th & 3 at USC 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:27LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:13USC 4th & 9 at LSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−10.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:07USC 4th & 7 at USC 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:25LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 46, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:38USC 4th & 9 at LSU 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:57LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 29, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:47LSU 4th & 8 at USC 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−18.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−30.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 11:00USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:04LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:42LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:44USC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−1.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:08USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1DOWNS
16 plays · 74 yds · 7:0962% → 62%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
61.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 15 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
61.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 15 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
61.8%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
61.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 5 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+1
61.9%
Kaleb Jackson run for 1 yd to the USC 39Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+3
61.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
62.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 8 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 2
OPP 28
-5
62.3%
LSU Penalty, False Start (DJ Chester) to the USC 33Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+13
62.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 13 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
62.4%
Josh Williams run for 12 yds to the USC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
62.5%
Josh Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 9Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
62.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q1 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
62.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyle Parker for 6 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q1 7:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
61.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:1739% → 38%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
61.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 9 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+8
61.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 8 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
61.2%
Woody Marks run for 6 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
60.9%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-1
61.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 27Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+1
61.6%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 57 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 1 yd to the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:3761% → 61%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
61.1%
Kaleb Jackson run for 4 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+9
61.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 9 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
61.2%
Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
61.2%
Zavion Thomas run for 5 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+6
61.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 6 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
62.3%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+2
62.4%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+1
61.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 1 yd to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
61.2%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 3:5240% → 50%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
60.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 17 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
59.7%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 29Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+19
60.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 19 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
58.2%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
58.6%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
58.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Quinten Joyner for 4 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+2
57.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 2 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+24
57.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 24 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
56.7%
Moss, Miller pass incomplete to Lane, Ja'Kobi, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Ryan, Sage) 15 yards to the LSU2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.7%
Woody Marks run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5652% → 64%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
52.3%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
52.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
52.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 6 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
52.4%
Josh Williams run for 10 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
52.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
52.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 11 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
53.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 12 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
54.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+11
53.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 11 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
63.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 19 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
Q2 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
63.7%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kyren Lacy) to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:3545% → 47%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+38
55.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 38 yds to the LSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-15
53.1%
Moss, Miller pass incomplete to Fair, Jay, PENALTY USC illegal block (Lane, Ja'Kobi) 15 yards to the LSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 0
OPP 20
-4
53.3%
Miller Moss sacked by Sai'vion Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 24 Miller Moss fumbled, forced by Sai'vion Jones, recovered by USC Emmanuel Pregnon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 0
OPP 24
+19
53.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 19 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
54.3%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q2 4:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
52.8%
Michael Lantz 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:1354% → 61%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.3%
Kaleb Jackson run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
54.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
54.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 8 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
56.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 26 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
58.0%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the USC 32Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
58.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+4
56.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 4 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
61.0%
Damian Ramos 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8END OF HALF
13 plays · 63 yds · 1:0643% → 47%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
56.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 9 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
54.6%
Woody Marks run for no gain to the USC 34Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
55.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 3 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
55.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+22
53.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 22 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
52.4%
Woody Marks run for 17 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
50.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
51.3%
Woody Marks run for 7 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+29
52.7%
Michael Lantz 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3143% → 42%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.9%
Woody Marks run for 6 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
55.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 1 yd to the USC 32Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
56.8%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Makai LemonSimilar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+15
58.3%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 55 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 15 yds to the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0261% → 59%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
60.8%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
60.9%
Kaleb Jackson run for 4 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
60.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to CJ Daniels for 2 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
59.2%
Peyton Todd punt for 40 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for no gain to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:1443% → 51%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
56.9%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
57.1%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+41
58.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 41 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
53.2%
Woody Marks run for 3 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 7
OPP 33
-5
51.6%
USC Penalty, False Start (Elijah Paige) to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+4
53.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 4 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+15
53.4%
Moss, Miller pass incomplete to Robinson, Duce, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Woodland, PJ) 15 yards to the LSU19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
51.2%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
51.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 5 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 5
OPP 14
-4
52.5%
Miller Moss sacked by Sai'vion Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 18Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
48.6%
Michael Lantz 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:2551% → 70%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
51.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Will Campbell) to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+15
50.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Mason Taylor for 15 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+39
51.6%
John Emery Jr. run for 39 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
57.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
57.0%
John Emery Jr. run for 10 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
57.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+3
56.9%
Kaleb Jackson run for 3 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
73.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 13 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+15
69.9%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anthony Lucas) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:3132% → 29%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
67.8%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 12 Woody Marks fumbled, forced by Greg Penn III, recovered by USC Elijah PaigeSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 18
OWN 12
-5
68.5%
USC Penalty, False Start (Makai Lemon) to the USC 7Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 23
OWN 7
+5
69.0%
Woody Marks run for 5 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+11
70.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 11 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
70.7%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 54 yds, downed at the LSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:4271% → 71%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
70.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 6 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+10
71.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 10 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
72.6%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
73.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Trey'Dez GreenSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+3
72.2%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Josh Williams for 3 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
71.1%
Peyton Todd punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 4:4731% → 23%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
68.9%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 14Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+19
69.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 19 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
67.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
50
+7
63.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Lake McRee for 7 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
63.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kade Eldridge for 6 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
63.7%
Quinten Joyner run for 4 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
60.9%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Kyle FordSimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-3
67.8%
Woody Marks run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 8:38
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
77.1%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Makai LemonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4177% → 80%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
77.2%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Major Burns) to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
75.9%
John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+14
77.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Ka'Morreun Pimpton for 14 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 1
OWN 30
-1
78.5%
John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
79.6%
Peyton Todd punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Zachariah Branch at the USC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:1322% → 75%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
78.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 20 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
74.4%
Woody Marks run for 16 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
25.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 28 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 3:5743% → 63%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.9%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Will Campbell) to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
42.4%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Anthony Lucas) to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
41.9%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+41
40.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 41 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
51.0%
John Emery Jr. run for no gain to the USC 28Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
49.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 12 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
46.5%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
47.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Aaron AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
43.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
62.5%
Damian Ramos 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:3947% → 91%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Woody Marks for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
51.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 5 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
52.1%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 9 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
46.5%
Woody Marks run for 4 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
47.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 10 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
44.8%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Kyron HudsonSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
45.9%
USC Penalty, False Start (Alani Noa) to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+34
48.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 20 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Jardin Gilbert) to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
9.0%
Woody Marks run for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass intercepted Mason Cobb return for no gain to the LSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
9.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:44
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 28 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-49.1
TD · Q4 0:08
Woody Marks run for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-39.9
FG · Q4 1:47
Damian Ramos 31 yd FG GOOD
+18.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com