2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:38 · Jesse Mirco punt for 33 yds, downed at the VT 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:18: Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +16.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:12: Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 11 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +31.3 pts (now 59%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:21: Kyron Drones pass complete to Ali Jennings for 62 yds for a TD (John Love KICK) — VT win probability +31.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:51: Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +40.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Diego Pavia run for 4 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK) — VAN win probability +17.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 8:27VAN 4th & 12 at VT 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.6% before the snapGo for it23.5%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call23.7%66% to makePunt23.0%−0.7average punt
- Q1 4:33VT 4th & 1 at VT 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt73.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:45VAN 4th & 1 at VT 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.7%71% to convertField goal27.9%−0.779% to makePunt25.8%−2.8average punt
- Q2 12:32VT 4th & 6 at VAN 43, down 10Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snapGo for it63.6%40% to convertField goal62.7%−0.928% to makePuntTheir call63.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:52VT 4th & 14 at VAN 23, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snapGo for it30.6%−3.917% to convertField goalTheir call34.6%70% to makePunt24.3%−10.3average punt
- Q2 0:24VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 26, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snapGo for it58.2%−2.722% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.8%average punt
- Q3 7:07VAN 4th & 10 at VT 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snapGo for it61.7%−0.230% to convertField goalTheir call61.9%45% to makePunt60.7%−1.2average punt
- Q3 5:12VT 4th & 3 at VT 32, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it31.4%−0.752% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q3 3:31VAN 4th & 13 at VAN 18, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snapGo for it66.9%−4.019% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.8%average punt
- Q3 0:34VT 4th & 17 at VAN 20, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.2% before the snapGo for it18.3%−3.813% to convertField goalTheir call22.1%75% to makePunt12.1%−10.0average punt
- Q4 13:10VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 33, up 7Close callPunted · 76.5% before the snapGo for it77.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:38VAN 4th & 13 at VT 36, tiedNumbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 50.8% before the snapGo for it49.5%−2.521% to convertField goal52.0%42% to makePuntTheir call50.5%−1.5average punt
- Q4 1:24VT 4th & 10 at VT 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snapGo for it33.6%−11.028% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q2 14:54VAN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.2%97% to makeGo for two35.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:18VAN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.4%97% to makeGo for two57.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:42VT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.4%97% to makeGo for two44.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:12VT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call47.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two47.4%45% to convert
- Q4 4:21VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call79.4%−0.997% to makeGo for two80.3%45% to convert
- Q4 1:51VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.9%97% to makeGo for two45.6%−2.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVANDrive 1FG12 plays · 50 yds · 6:0316% → 19%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.0%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the VAN 35 Vanderbilt Penalty, Offensive Holding (Quincy Skinner Jr.) to the VAN 25Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+31
17.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 31 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-6
19.1%
Junior Sherrill run for a loss of 6 yards to the VT 25 Junior Sherrill fumbled, recovered by VAN Junior SherrillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2INT9 plays · 25 yds · 3:5780% → 78%
Q1 7:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
20.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 5 yds to the VT 34Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
21.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 7 yds to the VT 46Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
50
-15
21.6%
Kyron Drones pass intercepted Glenn Seabrooks III return for 15 yds to the VT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3TD8 plays · 27 yds · 3:5124% → 29%
Q2 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
28.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 14 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 1:4771% → 69%
Q2 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+8
30.3%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Da'Quan Felton for 8 yds to the VT 37Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+16
30.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 1 yd to the VAN 38 for a 1ST down Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (CJ Taylor) to the VAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD11 plays · 80 yds · 6:4631% → 57%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
31.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 23 yds to the VAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+8
33.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 3
50
+4
34.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 4 yds to the VT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FG17 plays · 44 yds · 4:1748% → 45%
Q2 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+11
54.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 11 yds to the VT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
53.2%
Tuten, Bhayshul rush for 8 yards to the VAN48, PENALTY VATECH holding (Chaplin, Xavier) 10 yards to the VATECH34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+24
56.7%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 24 yds to the VAN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
54.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 5 yds to the VAN 25Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
54.5%
Tuten, Bhayshul rush for 17 yards to the VAN2, PENALTY VATECH holding (Felton, Da'Quan) 10 yards to the VAN29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+5
57.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Malachi Thomas for 5 yds to the VAN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT8 plays · -2 yds · 0:1360% → 63%
VTDrive 8END OF HALF3 plays · -9 yds · 0:1639% → 37%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
61.1%
Kyron Drones sacked by Linus Zunk for a loss of 7 yards to the VT 25 for a 1ST down Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (Miles Capers) to the VT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
60.5%
Drones, Kyron pass incomplete to Lane, Jaylin, PENALTY VATECH holding (Chaplin, Xavier) 10 yards to the VATECH30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 20
OWN 30
-7
62.7%
Kyron Drones sacked by Linus Zunk for a loss of 7 yards to the VT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD7 plays · 83 yds · 2:0340% → 57%
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+1
61.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 1 yd to the VT 21Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+26
62.6%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 26 yds to the VT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
60.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ali Jennings for 29 yds to the VAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10FG12 plays · 40 yds · 5:3049% → 64%
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
54.9%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 4 yards to the VT 46 Diego Pavia fumbled, recovered by VAN Diego Pavia Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the VT 46Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-11
62.8%
Diego Pavia sacked by Caleb Woodson for a loss of 11 yards to the VT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4136% → 33%
Q3 5:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
67.4%
Peter Moore punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Richie Hoskins at the VAN 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2968% → 67%
VTDrive 13FG8 plays · 50 yds · 2:4332% → 31%
Q3 2:45
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+32
70.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 17 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST down Vanderbilt Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
66.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 26 yds to the VAN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
65.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for no gain to the VAN 13Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-7
72.5%
Kyron Drones sacked by Khordae Sydnor for a loss of 7 yards to the VAN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5176% → 77%
VTDrive 15TD7 plays · 76 yds · 2:3326% → 59%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
73.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 9 yds to the VT 33Similar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+44
72.4%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 44 yds to the VAN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
40.9%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 11 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 39 yds · 2:1252% → 52%
Q4 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+41
52.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 41 yds to the VT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17TD6 plays · 97 yds · 2:2451% → 87%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
49.0%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Benji Gosnell for 9 yds to the VT 12Similar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+21
47.5%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 21 yds to the VT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+62
13.1%
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ali Jennings for 62 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD8 plays · 70 yds · 2:1621% → 67%
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+16
20.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 16 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
21.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Loic Fouonji for 19 yds to the VT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+5
24.9%
Virginia Tech Penalty, Defensive Offside (Christian James) to the VT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
26.4%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the VT 8 for a 1ST down AJ Newberry for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
66.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2450% → 45%
VANDrive 20DOWNS8 plays · 27 yds · 0:5764% → 64%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
65.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 11 yds to the VT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22Uncategorized6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0020% → 9%
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-5
85.7%
Collin Schlee sacked by Zaylin Wood for a loss of 5 yards to the VAN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:51
Diego Pavia pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 8 yds for a TD (Brock Taylor KICK)
+40.4
TD · Q4 4:21
Kyron Drones pass complete to Ali Jennings for 62 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-31.4
TD · Q4 10:12
Kyron Drones pass complete to Bhayshul Tuten for 11 yds for a TD (John Love KICK)
-31.3