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CSU

Colorado State 0 at Texas 52

TEX
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · TEX
modelTEX aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEX scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:14 · Michael Kern punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Pregame prior+47.5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Blowout margin−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:36: Quintrevion Wisner 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:56: Bert Auburn 45 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +0.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:50: Matthew Golden 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +1.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:55: Isaiah Bond 7 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:12: Matthew Golden 11 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:14TEX 4th & 13 at CSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:19CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:42CSU 4th & 14 at TEX 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:41CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 33, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:56TEX 4th & 6 at CSU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:40CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:58CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:20TEX 4th & 1 at CSU 24, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:22CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 45, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:04CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 49, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:51CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 28, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:10TEX 4th & 1 at CSU 1, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:42CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 44, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:32TEX 4th & 7 at CSU 40, up 52
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEX made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:36TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:50TEX Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:55TEX Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:12TEX Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:47TEX Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:23TEX Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:10TEX Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:3198% → 98%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
98.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 15 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
98.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 13 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
98.0%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TEX 49Similar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+2
98.0%
Jaydon Blue run for 2 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
97.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 13
OPP 49
0
97.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
97.9%
Michael Kern punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:422% → 2%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
97.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 7Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+3
97.8%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+1
97.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justin Marshall for 1 yd to the CSU 11Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
97.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 53 yds , Silas Bolden returns for no gain to the TEX 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:2498% → 98%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
97.6%
Jaydon Blue run for 7 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+17
97.6%
Jaydon Blue run for 17 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+37
97.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 37 yds to the CSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.7%
Quintrevion Wisner 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:432% → 3%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.6%
Justin Marshall run for 6 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
97.5%
Justin Marshall run for 13 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
97.4%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 45Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+10
97.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
97.2%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the TEX 44Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-5
97.1%
Colorado State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TEX 49Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
97.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 14
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5INT
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:1397% → 97%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
97.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 11 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
97.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 16 yds to the TEX 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
97.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 9 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-3
97.1%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 48Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+10
97.0%
Jaydon Blue run for 10 yds to the CSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
97.0%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Gabe Kirschke for a loss of 6 yards to the CSU 48Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+8
96.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 8 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+18
96.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quintrevion Wisner for 18 yds to the CSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
96.7%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 25Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 13
OPP 25
0
96.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jaydon BlueSimilar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 13
OPP 25
0
96.5%
Quinn Ewers pass intercepted Chase Wilson return for no gain to the CSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:204% → 4%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
96.3%
Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the CSU 19Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+9
96.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 9 yds to the CSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
96.2%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
96.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for no gain to the CSU 33Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
95.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 5
OWN 33
-2
96.0%
Paddy Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4596% → 96%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
96.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
96.2%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 7 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+2
96.1%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 2 yds to the CSU 22Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 1
OPP 22
-5
95.9%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CSU 27Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+45
96.0%
Bert Auburn 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:084% → 4%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
95.9%
Justin Marshall run for 7 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
95.7%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 33Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
95.7%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 32Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+37
96.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 37 yds , Silas Bolden returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:4096% → 98%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+38
95.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Matthew Golden for 38 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
96.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Juan Davis for 11 yds to the CSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
96.1%
Jaydon Blue run for 6 yds to the CSU 15Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+1
96.0%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 1 yd to the CSU 14Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+10
95.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 10 yds to the CSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
95.9%
Jaydon Blue run for 3 yds to the CSU 1Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.7%
Matthew Golden 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:023% → 3%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 8 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
96.8%
Kobe Johnson run for 1 yd to the CSU 34Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
96.9%
Keegan Holles run for 4 yds to the CSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-30
96.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass intercepted Jahdae Barron return for 30 yds to the CSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 11TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:3198% → 99%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
97.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
97.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 15 yds to the CSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
97.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ryan Niblett for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 30Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+23
97.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 23 yds to the CSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.8%
Isaiah Bond 7 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:502% → 2%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Keegan Holles run for no gain to the CSU 25Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+35
98.4%
Paddy Turner punt for 43 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 35 yds to the CSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 13TD
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:4199% → 100%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
98.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Amari Niblack for 7 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+2
98.7%
Jaydon Blue run for 2 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+13
98.7%
Jaydon Blue run for 13 yds to the CSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.6%
Matthew Golden 11 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.7%
Justin Marshall run for 12 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:320% → 0%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.6%
Justin Marshall run for 7 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
99.7%
Justin Marshall run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 30Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 7 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
99.7%
Colorado State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CSU 27Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+2
99.7%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+9
99.7%
Justin Marshall run for 9 yds to the CSU 38Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+7
99.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 35 yds, downed at the TEX 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.8%
Jaydon Blue run for 3 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
99.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 7 yds to the TEX 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
99.8%
Isaiah Bond run for 25 yds to the CSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 5 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+9
99.8%
Quintrevion Wisner run for 9 yds to the CSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
99.8%
Jerrick Gibson run for 4 yds to the CSU 27Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+22
99.8%
Jerrick Gibson run for 22 yds to the CSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson 5 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 29Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
99.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 12 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Justin Marshall run for 6 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete to Dylan GoffneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:22100% → 100%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+40
99.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 40 yds to the CSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 4 yds to the CSU 5Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Arch Manning run for no gain to the CSU 5Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Silas Bolden 5 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:210% → 0%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Kobe Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 24Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-6
99.9%
Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the CSU 28 Colorado State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CSU 18Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+2
99.9%
Justin Marshall run for 2 yds to the CSU 20Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+8
100.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 8 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 15 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 10 yds to the CSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 6 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+7
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 7 yds to the CSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
99.9%
Arch Manning pass complete to Johntay Cook II for 5 yds to the CSU 12Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
99.9%
Colin Page run for 3 yds to the CSU 9Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+5
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 5 yds to the CSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.9%
Arch Manning run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 5Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for 4 yds to the CSU 1Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Jerrick Gibson run for no gain to the CSU 1Similar
Q4 10:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Arch Manning 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21FUMBLE
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:160% → 0%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
100.0%
Justin Marshall run for 8 yds to the CSU 33Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
100.0%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 34Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
100.0%
Justin Marshall run for 5 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
100.0%
Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 40Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
100.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Peter Montini for 4 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 50 yds , Silas Bolden returns for no gain to the TEX 6 Silas Bolden fumbled, recovered by TEX Gavin HolmesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
100.0%
Ryan Niblett run for 6 yds to the TEX 12Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+2
100.0%
Ryan Niblett run for 2 yds to the TEX 14Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+30
100.0%
Arch Manning pass complete to Ryan Wingo for 30 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
Ryan Niblett run for 4 yds to the TEX 48Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+4
100.0%
Warren Roberson run for 4 yds to the CSU 48Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+5
100.0%
Warren Roberson run for 5 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Warren Roberson run for no gain to the CSU 43Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
100.0%
Warren Roberson run for 2 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+1
100.0%
Colin Page run for 1 yd to the CSU 40Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Arch Manning pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23INT
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 40Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
100.0%
Justin Marshall run for 9 yds to the CSU 49Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
100.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Jordan Ross for 7 yds to the TEX 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
100.0%
Jackson Brousseau run for 8 yds to the TEX 36Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass incomplete to Keegan HollesSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+19
100.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Keegan Holles for 4 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the TEX 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Jackson Brousseau pass intercepted, touchback. Wardell Mack return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:20100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 19Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:50
Matthew Golden 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
+1.8
TD · Q2 1:55
Isaiah Bond 7 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
+1.1
TD · Q2 0:12
Matthew Golden 11 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com