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USM

Southern Miss 0 at Kentucky 31

UK
2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3TDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:52 · Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Play 67Pregame prior+29.8Home team on offense+11.7Score differential+4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Garbage-time factor+2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:45: Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 6 yds to the USM 31 — USM win probability +2.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:06: Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 35 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST down — UK win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 3:07: Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:07: Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 4 yds to the USM 29 — USM win probability +1.9 pts (now 6%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:31: Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 0 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 11:26UK 4th & 7 at USM 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    90.7%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:46USM 4th & 9 at USM 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:45UK 4th & 1 at USM 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.3%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:06USM 4th & 12 at USM 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:52USM 4th & 4 at USM 31, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:54USM 4th & 12 at UK 47, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:03UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:07UK Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:31UK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:56UK Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:4495% → 94%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
94.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 3 yds to the USM 49Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+9
94.6%
Brock Vandagriff run for 9 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
94.6%
Brock Vandagriff run for 14 yds to the USM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
94.6%
Barion Brown run for 10 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
94.6%
Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dane Key) to the USM 25Similar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 19
OPP 25
0
94.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass intercepted Dylan Lawrence return for no gain to the USM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2INT
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:276% → 6%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+29
94.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 29 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
94.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted Jamon Dumas-Johnson return for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 5:5494% → 94%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
94.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Jordan Dingle for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 39Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+20
94.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 20 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
94.2%
Jamarion Wilcox run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 43Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+4
94.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 4 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+11
94.2%
Brock Vandagriff run for 11 yds to the USM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
94.2%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+11
94.2%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 11 yds to the USM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
94.2%
Barion Brown run for 2 yds to the USM 12Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
94.2%
Brock Vandagriff run for no gain to the USM 12Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+12
93.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4INT
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:347% → 9%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-7
93.3%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the USM 10Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 17
OWN 10
-1
93.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 9Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 18
OWN 9
+34
93.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 34 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
93.2%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
93.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 7 yds to the UK 48Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
93.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
93.1%
Ethan Crawford run for 6 yds to the UK 41Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+5
93.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 5 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
91.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the UK 34Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
91.5%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+21
91.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 21 yds to the UK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
91.4%
Ethan Crawford run for 6 yds to the UK 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-1
91.4%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 8Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
91.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted, touchback. JQ Hardaway return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:1193% → 93%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
92.9%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 10 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
92.9%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 22 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
93.3%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the USM 45Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
93.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
93.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
92.5%
Wilson Berry punt for 37 yds, downed at the USM 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:409% → 8%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
91.5%
Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the USM 8Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-4
91.6%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the USM 4Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+5
91.6%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 5 yds to the USM 9Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
91.8%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
91.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0193% → 94%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
92.9%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 1 yd to the USM 31Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+6
92.8%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 6 yds to the USM 25Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+2
92.7%
Barion Brown run for 2 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+41
93.9%
Alex Raynor 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:399% → 8%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.3%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 6 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
91.0%
RODEMAKER, Tate pass short to the left complete for 0 yards to HEATH, Kyirin caught at the USM34 and advanced to the USM31 (HAIRSTON, Maxwell). PENALTY USM Illegal Touch-Pass on HEATH, Kyirin enforced 0 yards from the USM31 to the USM31, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-8
91.3%
Tate Rodemaker sacked by Tre'vonn Rybka for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 23Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
91.6%
Bryce Lofton punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5994% → 96%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
93.6%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 35 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
94.1%
Jamarion Wilcox run for 10 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
94.1%
Jason Patterson run for 12 yds to the USM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
94.1%
Jason Patterson run for 11 yds to the USM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
93.8%
Jason Patterson run for 4 yds to the USM 3Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
93.8%
Southern Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalil Clemons) to the USM 1Similar
Q2 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.2%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:156% → 5%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.4%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 4 yds to the USM 29Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
94.1%
Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 28Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
94.7%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Rodrigues Clark for 3 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-2
94.6%
Ethan Crawford run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:2196% → 98%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
96.4%
Brock Vandagriff run for 1 yd to the USM 28Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-5
96.3%
VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass to the right complete for 11 yards to SUMO-KARNGBAYE, Demie caught at the USM17 and advanced to the USM17 (LAWRENCE, Dylan). PENALTY UKY Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MINCEY, Gerald enforced 5 yards from the USM28 to the USM33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+21
96.3%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 21 yds to the USM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.0%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
96.7%
Kenyon Clay run for 7 yds to the USM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:063% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.2%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to JQ Gray for 6 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
97.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Larry Simmons for 9 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
97.0%
RODEMAKER, Tate pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the UKY36. PENALTY UKY Roughing the Passer on WEAVER, J.J. enforced 15 yards from the USM40 to the UKY45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.9%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
97.0%
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
97.1%
Tate Rodemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 12
OPP 47
+5
97.6%
Bryce Lofton punt for 36 yds , Ja'Mori Maclin returns for 5 yds to the UK 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 2:5898% → 100%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
97.6%
Fred Farrier II run for 3 yds to the UK 19Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
98.0%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+12
98.0%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Fred Farrier II for 12 yds to the UK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.1%
Brock Vandagriff pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
98.0%
VANDAGRIFF, Brock pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BROWN, Barion thrown to the USM25. PENALTY USM Pass Interference on JAMES, Will enforced 15 yards to the UKY46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+46
98.2%
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 46 yds to the USM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 3 yds to the USM 5Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Jordan Dingle 5 Yd pass from Brock Vandagriff (Alex Raynor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 7:45
Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Dannis Jackson for 6 yds to the USM 31
-2.6
TD · Q2 3:07
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+2.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:06
Brock Vandagriff pass complete to Dane Key for 35 yds to the USM 40 for a 1ST down
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com