2024 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2024 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadAAMU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreAAMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:25 · Malcolm Simmons 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Towns McGough Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:00: Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 4 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- FG · Q2 6:00: Austin McCready 43 yd FG GOOD — AAMU win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: AAMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:22: Payton Thorne run for 4 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK) — AUB win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AAMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 14
- Q1 13:08AAMU 4th & 5 at AAMU 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 11:56AAMU 4th & 11 at AAMU 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 6:59AAMU 4th & 12 at AUB 12, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call0.6%86% to makePunt0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:09AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 24, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q1 4:23AAMU 4th & 3 at AAMU 42, down 21Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:58AAMU 4th & 20 at AAMU 15, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 13:48AUB 4th & 3 at AAMU 14, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%51% to convertField goalTheir call99.5%−<0.184% to makePunt99.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:48AAMU 4th & 7 at AUB 21, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−<0.135% to convertField goal0.8%74% to makePunt0.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 6:00AAMU 4th & 4 at AUB 26, down 38Close callKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%48% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%−<0.164% to makePunt-0.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 2:03AAMU 4th & 7 at AAMU 16, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 8:25AAMU 4th & 3 at AAMU 21, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 5:39AAMU 4th & 10 at AUB 30, down 56Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goal0.1%56% to makePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:14AAMU 4th & 13 at AUB 13, down 56Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.117% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%85% to makePunt-0.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:02AAMU 4th & 15 at AAMU 20, down 63Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:57AAMU 4th & 17 at AAMU 13, down 70Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:40AAMU 4th & 2 at AAMU 44, down 70Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 14:13AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 12:47AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:39AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:00AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:10AUB Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:22AUB Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:51AUB Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:25AUB Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:40AUB Touchdown, up 62 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:09AUB Touchdown, up 69 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAUBDrive 1TD4 plays · 70 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
AAMUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:031% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD1 play · 67 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
99.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 67 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q1 11:56
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+15
99.4%
Austin McCready punt for 35 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 15 yds to the AAMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD1 play · 44 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 44 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 6MISSED FG10 plays · 63 yds · 4:381% → 1%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Dj Nelson for 6 yds to the AAMU 31Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
99.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Donovan Price for 9 yds to the AAMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+56
99.4%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Keenan Hambrick for 56 yds to the AUB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-8
99.4%
Cornelious Brown IV sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 8 yards to the AUB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q1 5:19
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
99.4%
Xavier Lankford pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 2 yds to the AAMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1699% → 100%
AAMUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q1 1:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-6
99.6%
Xavier Lankford sacked by Keldric Faulk for a loss of 6 yards to the AAMU 16Similar
Q2 14:58
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Austin McCready punt for 45 yds , Keionte Scott returns for no gain to the AAMU 15 Alabama A&M Penalty, Illegal Formation (Montrell Campbell) to the AAMU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FG4 plays · 7 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q2 14:32
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+7
99.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 7 yds to the AAMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 12DOWNS9 plays · 45 yds · 2:500% → 1%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.6%
Auburn Penalty, Roughing the Passer on CARTER, Trill enforced (Trill Carter) to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-4
99.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Ryan Morrow for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 39Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+15
99.6%
(12:11) BROWN, Cornelious pass to the right incomplete intended for WHITE, Barry thrown to the AUB30, clock 12:08. PENALTY AUB Personal Foul on CRAWFORD, Jay enforced 15 yards from the AUB39 to the AUB24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+5
99.6%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Duke Miller for 5 yds to the AUB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD2 plays · 82 yds · 0:32100% → 100%
AAMUDrive 14FG12 plays · 57 yds · 4:000% → 0%
Q2 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+15
99.8%
(09:18) BROWN, Cornelious pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HEWITT, Jacolby thrown to the AUB45, clock 09:13. PENALTY AUB Pass Interference on LEE, Kayin enforced 15 yards to the AAM33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
99.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 9 yds to the AAMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+26
99.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Duke Miller for 26 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.8%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Keenan Hambrick for 6 yds to the AUB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q2 5:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
99.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Cam Coleman for 18 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
99.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 8 yds to the AAMU 46Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+41
99.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 41 yds to the AAMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q2 2:03
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Austin McCready punt for 31 yds, fair catch by KeAndre Lambert-Smith at the AAMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD6 plays · 47 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
99.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Robert Lewis for 8 yds to the AAMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 18END OF HALF2 plays · 9 yds · 0:390% → 0%
AAMUDrive 19PUNT TD4 plays · 7 yds · 1:230% → 0%
Q3 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
99.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Duke Miller for 2 yds to the AAMU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 20MISSED FG13 plays · 62 yds · 5:100% → 0%
Q3 7:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
99.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Duke Miller for 11 yds to the AAMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
50
+20
99.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Duke Miller for 20 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+28
99.9%
Cornelious Brown IV pass complete to Duke Miller for 28 yds to the AUB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q3 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+57
99.9%
Hank Brown pass complete to Malcolm Simmons for 57 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:370% → 0%
AUBDrive 23TD3 plays · 42 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
AAMUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 8:00
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-5
100.0%
(08:00) LANKFORD, Xavier pass short to the left complete for 14 yards to PRICE, Donovan caught at the AAM22 and advanced to the AAM32 (HARRIS, Kaleb), out of bounds, clock 07:55. PENALTY AAM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the AAM18 to the AAM13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25FUMBLE1 play · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
100.0%
Justin Jones run for 24 yds to the AAMU 23 Justin Jones fumbled, recovered by AAMU Steven Parker S. Parker return for 4 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 26PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q4 5:51
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+4
100.0%
Xavier Lankford pass complete to DeQuadrion Welch for 4 yds to the AAMU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27FUMBLE6 plays · 36 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
100.0%
Holden Geriner pass complete to Bryce Cain for 10 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+23
100.0%
Holden Geriner pass complete to Bryce Cain for 23 yds Bryce Cain fumbled, recovered by AAMU Jordan Milton J. Milton return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 28END OF GAME3 plays · 14 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 0:37
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+16
100.0%
Xavier Lankford pass complete to Devin Herring for 16 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:00
Payton Thorne pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 4 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)
+0.2
FG · Q2 6:00
Austin McCready 43 yd FG GOOD
-0.1
TD · Q2 3:22
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds for a TD (Towns McGough KICK)
+0.1