2024 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2024 · War Memorial Stadium (AR)
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadUAPB aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreUAPB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:42 · Shea Yurkins punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:08: Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 8 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — UAPB win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:03: Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 46 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — ARK win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:06: Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — UAPB win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:37: Taylen Green pass complete to Ty Washington for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — ARK win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UAPB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 10:37UAPB 4th & 14 at UAPB 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 6:14UAPB 4th & 11 at UAPB 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 3:17UAPB 4th & 18 at UAPB 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q1 0:00UAPB 4th & 13 at UAPB 33, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 8:46UAPB 4th & 4 at ARK 47, down 35Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:42UAPB 4th & 9 at ARK 46, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.123% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 8:31UAPB 4th & 8 at UAPB 27, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 3:31UAPB 4th & 5 at UAPB 45, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 12:08ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:16ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:03ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:12ARK Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:06ARK Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:37ARK Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:09ARK Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:13ARK Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:14ARK Touchdown, up 62 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:36ARK Touchdown, up 69 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARKDrive 1TD8 plays · 66 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
UAPBDrive 2PUNT6 plays · -4 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q1 10:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
99.4%
Mekhi Hagens sacked by Eric Gregory for a loss of 6 yards to the UAPB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD5 plays · 40 yds · 2:2199% → 99%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
99.4%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ja'Quinden Jackson for 14 yds to the UAPB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q1 8:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.4%
Mekhi Hagens sacked by Xavian Sorey Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the UAPB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD3 plays · 60 yds · 1:1199% → 100%
UAPBDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.4%
HAGENS, Mekhi pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GIBSON, JaVonnie thrown to the UAP47. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Jayden enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the UAP33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-5
99.4%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UAPB 34Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-9
99.5%
Mekhi Hagens sacked by Stephen Dix Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the UAPB 25Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 18
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Shea Yurkins punt for 38 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for no gain Arkansas Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UAPB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD8 plays · 40 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
UAPBDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:120% → 0%
ARKDrive 9TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:54100% → 100%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+34
99.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 34 yds to the UAPB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
99.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jordan Anthony for 11 yds to the UAPB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.5%
Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 10PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 3:200% → 0%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
99.7%
Mekhi Hagens run for 4 yds to the UAPB 40 Arkansas-Pine Bluff Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UAPB 28Similar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 18
OWN 28
+17
99.7%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Aramoni Rhone for 17 yds to the UAPB 45Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+8
99.7%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Kristian Gammage for 8 yds to the ARK 47Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
99.8%
Shea Yurkins punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD6 plays · 81 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
99.6%
Taylen Green pass complete to Luke Hasz for 20 yds to the UAPB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
99.7%
Taylen Green pass complete to Jordan Anthony for 11 yds to the UAPB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ty Washington for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 12PUNT12 plays · 29 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Kristian Gammage for 2 yds to the UAPB 27Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.9%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Jaxson Isaac for 9 yds to the UAPB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+17
99.9%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Aramoni Rhone for 17 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Daemon Dawkins for 3 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Shea Yurkins punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 23Similar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
99.8%
GREEN, Taylen pass deep to the left complete for 42 yards to SATEGNA, Isaiah caught at the UAP48 and advanced to the UAP35 (ALLEN-PATMON, Marquese). PENALTY ARK Holding on BLACKSTOCK, Keyshawn enforced 10 yards from the ARK23 to the ARK13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13TD8 plays · 77 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+10
99.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rodney Hill for 10 yds to the ARK 23Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+17
99.8%
Taylen Green pass complete to Khafre Brown for 17 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Rodney Hill for 6 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+18
99.9%
Taylen Green pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 18 yds to the UAPB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Kevin English for 3 yds to the UAPB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD6 plays · 67 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
99.9%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 15 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+25
99.9%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Khafre Brown for 25 yds to the UAPB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+14
99.9%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Luke Hasz for 14 yds to the UAPB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q3 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 15 yds to the UAPB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
YURKINS, Shea punt 38 yards to the ARK22, STEPHENS, Bryce returned 72 yards to the UAP6, End of Play, clock 03:44. PENALTY ARK Running Into the kicker on COLLINS, Charlie enforced 5 yards from the UAP40 to the UAP45 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD12 plays · 86 yds · 10:17100% → 100%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
99.9%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Monte Harrison for 11 yds to the ARK 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
99.9%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 11 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 3 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+13
99.9%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Davion Dozier for 13 yds to the UAPB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+28
100.0%
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 28 yds to the UAPB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
100.0%
Malachi Singleton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAPB 4 Malachi Singleton fumbled, recovered by ARK Malachi Singleton M. Singleton return for 0 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 19PUNT13 plays · 20 yds · 3:220% → 0%
Q4 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+21
100.0%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to Donovan Giles for 21 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
100.0%
Mekhi Hagens pass complete to JaVonnie Gibson for 17 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
100.0%
HAGENS, Mekhi pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for GAMMAGE, Kristian thrown to the ARK0. PENALTY UAP Holding enforced 10 yards from the ARK27 to the ARK37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 20
OPP 37
-5
100.0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Penalty, False Start (Jaden Kelly) to the ARK 42Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 25
OPP 42
-13
100.0%
Mekhi Hagens sacked by Bradley Shaw for a loss of 13 yards to the UAPB 45Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 38
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Jeremy Baker punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dylan Hasz at the ARK 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD11 plays · 90 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
100.0%
KJ Jackson pass complete to Monte Harrison for 18 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
100.0%
KJ Jackson pass complete to Krosse Johnson for 10 yds to the UAPB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+16
100.0%
KJ Jackson pass complete to Shamar Easter for 16 yds to the UAPB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
100.0%
KJ Jackson pass complete to Krosse Johnson for 15 yds to the UAPB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UAPBDrive 21END OF GAME1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:37
Taylen Green pass complete to Ty Washington for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 12:08
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 8 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-0.1
TD · Q1 5:03
Ja'Quinden Jackson run for 46 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+0.1