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LOU

Louisville 28 at USC 42

USC
2023 · DIRECTV Holiday Bowl · Dec 27, 2023 · Petco Park
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+9.4USC 96.0%Miller Moss pass complete to DuceRobinson for 44 yds for a TD (DenisLynch KICK)AWAY 28 - HOME 42 · Q4 10:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:00 · Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 44 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Home team on offense+26.6Score differential+10.9Garbage-time factor+12.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Pregame prior−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:56: Evan Conley run for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK) — LOU win probability +11.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:43: Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK) — LOU win probability +14.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:51: Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 12 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +11.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:51: Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK) — LOU win probability +13.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:00: Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 44 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK) — USC win probability +9.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:47USC 4th & 6 at USC 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:05USC 4th & 7 at LOU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00LOU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.0%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:20LOU 4th & 9 at USC 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    54.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:09LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:39LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 27, down 14
    Close callPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:10USC 4th & 1 at LOU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−2.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−11.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:55LOU 4th & 1 at USC 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−2.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−11.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:48LOU 4th & 6 at USC 16, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:32USC 4th & 2 at LOU 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:37LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:25USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:07USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:30USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:56LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:19USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:43LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:51USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:51LOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.9%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:00USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5847% → 47%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.7%
Zachariah Branch run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
46.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
46.8%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
46.8%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 5:0353% → 55%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
46.9%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
47.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+14
47.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
50
+13
46.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 13 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
47.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+2
46.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+14
47.1%
Jack Plummer run for 14 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
47.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 10 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
47.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.6%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:2246% → 46%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
45.5%
Miller Moss run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.6%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Makai LemonSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+40
45.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 40 yds to the LOU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
46.6%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the LOU 18Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 18
-3
46.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for a loss of 3 yards to the LOU 21Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 7
OPP 21
0
46.1%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Duce RobinsonSimilar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
45.5%
Denis Lynch 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
44.8%
Jack Plummer sacked by Max Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 19 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by USC Solomon Byrd , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:5647% → 50%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
46.5%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the LOU 18Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+1
46.5%
Miller Moss pass complete to Austin Jones for 1 yd to the LOU 17Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+17
49.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
18 plays · 51 yds · 8:5551% → 51%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
48.7%
Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the LOU 15 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LOU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
48.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 5 yds to the LOU 35Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
48.3%
Maurice Turner run for 4 yds to the LOU 39Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
48.1%
Maurice Turner run for 2 yds to the LOU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
47.7%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
47.6%
Kevin Coleman run for 5 yds to the LOU 49Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
47.7%
Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
50
+1
48.4%
Maurice Turner run for 1 yd to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
47.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Kevin Coleman for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
47.4%
Maurice Turner run for 6 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
47.4%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
47.5%
Plummer, Jack pass complete to Thompson, Jadon for no gain to the USC37, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the USC47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+5
48.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+2
48.1%
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+4
48.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
48.9%
Brady Hodges punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:0451% → 62%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
50.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Makai Lemon for 35 yds to the LOU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
53.6%
Quinten Joyner run for 3 yds to the LOU 42Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
53.6%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+13
53.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Dorian Singer for 13 yds to the LOU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
62.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 29 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4141% → 39%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
59.2%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 5 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
58.6%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Chris BellSimilar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
59.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
60.8%
Hodges,Brady punt 0 yards to the LOU31 blocked by Hudson,Kyron, out of bounds at LOU18.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:3363% → 69%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
62.9%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
63.2%
Moss, Miller pass incomplete to Branch, Zachariah, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 9 yards to the LOUISVILLE9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC.Similar
Q2 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 9 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:1433% → 43%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+32
67.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 32 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
66.0%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jimmy Calloway for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+2
65.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
65.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 7 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+4
65.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
66.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
67.0%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
68.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
56.6%
Evan Conley run for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3163% → 75%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
63.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Zachariah Branch for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
64.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Austin Jones for 6 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+24
65.7%
Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 24 yds to the LOU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
66.9%
Miller Moss run for 2 yds to the LOU 31Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+31
75.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 31 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
73.3%
Jack Plummer sacked by Jamil Muhammad and Tyrone Taleni for a loss of 10 yards to the LOU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0624% → 22%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
76.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 3 yds to the LOU 24Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
76.5%
Jack Plummer pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+3
77.1%
Jack Plummer run for 3 yds to the LOU 27Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+23
77.8%
Brady Hodges punt for 38 yds , Zachariah Branch returns for 23 yds to the LOU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14INT
3 plays · 34 yds · 1:0680% → 81%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
79.5%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the LOU 40Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+32
80.2%
Miller Moss pass complete to Carson Tabaracci for 32 yds to the LOU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-61
80.5%
Miller Moss pass intercepted Quincy Riley return for 61 yds to the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:3724% → 39%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
75.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 19 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
74.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-5
74.8%
Jack Plummer run for 5 yds to the USC 12 Louisville Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 22Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+20
76.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 20 yds to the USC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
76.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd to the USC 1Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
13 plays · 53 yds · 4:4973% → 86%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-2
72.2%
Quinten Joyner run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 45Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+17
70.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 17 yds to the LOU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
73.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 2 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
74.9%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Zachariah BranchSimilar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+14
73.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Austin Jones for 14 yds to the LOU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
75.3%
Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 6 yds to the LOU 16Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
75.4%
Miller Moss pass complete to Austin Jones for 3 yds to the LOU 13Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
74.7%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the LOU 13Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+1
74.1%
Jake Jensen run for 1 yd to the LOU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
85.8%
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 12 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
16 plays · 72 yds · 6:3918% → 24%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
82.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 8 yds to the LOU 36Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
82.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the LOU 36Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+27
83.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 27 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
84.6%
Jack Plummer sacked by Bryson Shaw and Elijah Hughes for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 42Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+22
87.1%
Isaac Guerendo run for 7 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mason Cobb) to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
84.4%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 6 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
85.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
88.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 1 yd to the USC 11Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
88.8%
Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the USC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
88.3%
Evan Conley run for 4 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
88.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Nate Kurisky for 2 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+2
88.8%
Plummer, Jack pass incomplete, PENALTY USC holding (Brown, Prophet) 2 yards to the USC2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q4 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5085% → 96%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
84.8%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
85.0%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
84.9%
Miller Moss pass complete to Kyron Hudson for 7 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.5%
Miller Moss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
87.3%
Miller Moss pass incomplete to Dorian SingerSimilar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+17
86.6%
Miller Moss pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the LOU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
96.0%
Miller Moss pass complete to Duce Robinson for 44 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:577% → 4%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
93.5%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 7 yds to the LOU 38Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+8
93.7%
Isaac Guerendo run for 8 yds to the LOU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
93.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+10
93.6%
Maurice Turner run for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
93.4%
Maurice Turner run for 3 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+12
93.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Chris Bell for 12 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
94.1%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Maurice Turner for 5 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 5
OPP 15
-2
94.2%
Maurice Turner run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 17Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+1
94.9%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Isaac Guerendo for 1 yd to the USC 16Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+4
95.7%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 4 yds to the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:0898% → 99%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
97.6%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the USC 13Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+35
98.0%
Austin Jones run for 35 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.4%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the USC 48Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-1
98.4%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 47Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+9
98.4%
Austin Jones run for 9 yds to the LOU 44Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
99.2%
Eddie Czaplicki punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kevin Coleman at the LOU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
98.6%
Jack Plummer pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 11 yds Jadon Thompson fumbled, recovered by USC Mason Cobb , return for 3 yds to the LOU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22Uncategorized
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 23Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LOU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:43
Isaac Guerendo run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q4 12:51
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Lopez KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q3 4:51
Miller Moss pass complete to Ja'Kobi Lane for 12 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com