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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreTOL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:04 · Luke Pawlak 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 11:20: John Hoyland 52 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +4.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:19: Jacquez Stuart run for 80 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +10.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- SAFETY · Q3 6:31: Andrew Peasley sacked by Esean Carter for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETY Andrew Peasley fumbled, recovered by WYO — TOL win probability +6.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:37: Evan Svoboda run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +32.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:01: John Hoyland 24 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +52.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
- Q1 13:57TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snapGo for it36.7%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.7%average punt
- Q1 6:31WYO 4th & 14 at TOL 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snapGo for it62.1%−0.417% to convertField goalTheir call62.5%80% to makePunt61.2%−1.3average punt
- Q1 2:14TOL 4th & 15 at WYO 34, down 3Close callWent for it · 35.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.3%−0.517% to convertField goal35.8%47% to makePunt35.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 11:20WYO 4th & 4 at TOL 35, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snapGo for it64.1%48% to convertField goalTheir call63.4%−0.845% to makePunt62.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 8:36TOL 4th & 9 at WYO 15, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snapGo for it32.9%−0.929% to convertField goalTheir call33.8%83% to makePunt28.3%−5.5average punt
- Q2 5:31WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 45, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 64.9% before the snapGo for it65.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.6%−1.6average punt
- Q2 2:04WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 40, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snapGo for it51.8%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.0%average punt
- Q2 1:23TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 33, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snapGo for it45.8%−0.548% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.4%average punt
- Q3 10:21WYO 4th & 10 at midfield, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snapGo for it50.1%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.0%average punt
- Q3 7:57TOL 4th & 9 at WYO 40, up 4Close callPunted · 50.4% before the snapGo for it50.3%32% to convertField goal49.4%−1.034% to makePuntTheir call50.0%−0.4average punt
- Q3 3:50TOL 4th & 9 at WYO 33, up 6Close callWent for it · 62.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.8%−0.432% to convertField goal62.2%49% to makePunt60.6%−1.6average punt
- Q3 2:04TOL 4th & 8 at WYO 15, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snapGo for it61.4%−1.631% to convertField goalTheir call63.0%83% to makePunt50.9%−12.2average punt
- Q4 13:27WYO 4th & 17 at WYO 42, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snapGo for it23.6%−4.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%average punt
- Q4 12:40TOL 4th & 10 at WYO 47, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snapGo for it72.6%−1.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.8%average punt
- Q4 4:11TOL 4th & 12 at WYO 40, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it63.3%−0.824% to convertField goal64.0%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call64.1%average punt
- Q4 2:07WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 41, down 2Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call39.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt27.5%−12.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 5:19TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.9%97% to makeGo for two44.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:37WYO Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.3%97% to makeGo for two40.3%−1.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTOLDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5041% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2FG13 plays · 77 yds · 7:1959% → 60%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
58.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 14 yds to the WYO 32 Harrison Waylee fumbled, recovered by WYO Harrison Waylee for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
59.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 6 yds to the WYO 38Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
59.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 5 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+9
59.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 9 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-8
59.9%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Darius Alexander for a loss of 8 yards to the TOL 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3INT11 plays · 43 yds · 4:0640% → 39%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
60.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 14 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
59.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 4 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
59.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the WYO 38Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+9
59.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 9 yds to the WYO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
59.0%
Gleason, Tucker pass complete to Rogers, Devan for 29 yards to the WYOMING0, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal touching (Rogers, Devan) 5 yards to the WYOMING34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 15
OPP 34
0
60.7%
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted Isaac White return for no gain to the WYO 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4FG13 plays · 63 yds · 5:4660% → 65%
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+9
60.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 9 yds to the WYO 11Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+34
60.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 34 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-3
62.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for a loss of 3 yards to the WYO 45Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+14
61.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ryan Marquez for 14 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+4
62.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Will Pelissier for 4 yds to the TOL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5FG11 plays · 60 yds · 2:3335% → 40%
WYODrive 6PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4961% → 64%
TOLDrive 7TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5655% → 52%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
54.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 6 yds to the WYO 33Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+6
53.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 6 yds to the WYO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+1
52.2%
Clayton Stewart punt for 34 yds , Adam Beale returns for 1 yd to the TOL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3650% → 49%
Q2 1:23
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
51.3%
Emilio Duran punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Caleb Cooley at the WYO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · 13 yds · 0:5952% → 52%
WYODrive 11PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 4:2651% → 49%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
51.0%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the WYO 24 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cavon Butler) to the WYO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
52.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 7 yds to the WYO 46Similar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
50
0
53.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Harrison Waylee for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 45 yds · 2:1352% → 52%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
48.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 30 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
45.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the WYO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+3
44.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 3 yds to the WYO 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13SF3 plays · -6 yds · 1:1948% → 40%
TOLDrive 14FG13 plays · 35 yds · 4:1464% → 72%
WYODrive 15PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 3:1830% → 25%
Q3 0:47
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+25
29.2%
Andrew Peasley run for 10 yds to the WYO 34 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Daniel Bolden) to the WYO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
50
-1
31.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Harrison Waylee for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 49Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-7
28.5%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Deshawn Holt for a loss of 7 yards to the WYO 42Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 17
OWN 42
0
25.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:3274% → 74%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
25.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 20 yds to the WYO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17TD8 plays · 73 yds · 3:4327% → 59%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
28.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 4 yds to the WYO 49Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
28.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 3 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+10
24.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Alex Brown for 10 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
24.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 19 yds to the TOL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 4:1959% → 66%
WYODrive 19END OF GAME17 plays · 87 yds · 3:5943% → 96%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+26
42.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ayir Asante for 26 yds to the WYO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+31
43.5%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 16 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (RJ Delancy III) to the TOL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+13
47.0%
Evan Svoboda run for 13 yds to the TOL 10 Evan Svoboda fumbled, recovered by WYOSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:01
John Hoyland 24 yd FG GOOD
+52.9
TD · Q4 8:37
Evan Svoboda run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+32.8
TD · Q2 5:19
Jacquez Stuart run for 80 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
-10.4