Try the model
TOL

Toledo 15 at Wyoming 16

WYO
2023 · Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl · Dec 30, 2023 · Arizona Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDSAFETYFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:57 · Emilio Duran punt for 57 yds, downed at the WYO 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+8.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:20: John Hoyland 52 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +4.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:19: Jacquez Stuart run for 80 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +10.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. SAFETY · Q3 6:31: Andrew Peasley sacked by Esean Carter for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETY Andrew Peasley fumbled, recovered by WYO — TOL win probability +6.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:37: Evan Svoboda run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +32.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:01: John Hoyland 24 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +52.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:57TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:31WYO 4th & 14 at TOL 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:14TOL 4th & 15 at WYO 34, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:20WYO 4th & 4 at TOL 35, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:36TOL 4th & 9 at WYO 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:31WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 45, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:04WYO 4th & 9 at WYO 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:23TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:21WYO 4th & 10 at midfield, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:57TOL 4th & 9 at WYO 40, up 4
    Close callPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−1.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:50TOL 4th & 9 at WYO 33, up 6
    Close callWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:04TOL 4th & 8 at WYO 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−12.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:27WYO 4th & 17 at WYO 42, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−4.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:40TOL 4th & 10 at WYO 47, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:11TOL 4th & 12 at WYO 40, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    64.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:07WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 41, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.5%−12.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WYO made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 5:19TOL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 8:37WYO Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5041% → 41%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
58.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
58.8%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
58.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q1 13:57
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
58.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 57 yds, downed at the WYO 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 7:1959% → 60%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
58.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 12 yds to the WYO 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
58.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 14 yds to the WYO 32 Harrison Waylee fumbled, recovered by WYO Harrison Waylee for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
59.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 6 yds to the WYO 38Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
59.2%
Andrew Peasley run for 2 yds to the WYO 40Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
59.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 5 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
59.4%
Andrew Peasley run for 9 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+9
59.6%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 9 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
59.7%
Sam Scott run for 9 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+15
59.7%
Jamari Ferrell run for 15 yds to the TOL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
59.9%
Wyatt Wieland run for 4 yds to the TOL 9Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-8
59.9%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Darius Alexander for a loss of 8 yards to the TOL 17Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 14
OPP 17
0
59.2%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to John Michael GyllenborgSimilar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+34
59.5%
John Hoyland 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3INT
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:0640% → 39%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
60.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 14 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
59.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 4 yds to the TOL 41Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
59.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+10
59.5%
Tucker Gleason run for 10 yds to the WYO 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
59.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the WYO 38Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+9
59.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 9 yds to the WYO 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
58.8%
Willie Shaw III run for no gain to the WYO 29Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
58.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
59.0%
Gleason, Tucker pass complete to Rogers, Devan for 29 yards to the WYOMING0, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal touching (Rogers, Devan) 5 yards to the WYOMING34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 15
OPP 34
0
60.7%
Tucker Gleason pass intercepted Isaac White return for no gain to the WYO 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 5:4660% → 65%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
59.8%
Wyoming Penalty, Offensive Holding (-1 Yards) to the WYO 1Similar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+1
60.4%
Andrew Peasley run for 1 yd to the WYO 2Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+9
60.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 9 yds to the WYO 11Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+34
60.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 34 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
62.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the WYO 48Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-3
62.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for a loss of 3 yards to the WYO 45Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+14
61.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ryan Marquez for 14 yds to the TOL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
62.8%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Alex BrownSimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
62.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the TOL 39Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+4
62.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Will Pelissier for 4 yds to the TOL 35Similar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+52
65.3%
John Hoyland 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 2:3335% → 40%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 10 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
64.5%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+23
64.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 23 yds to the WYO 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
62.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+24
63.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 24 yds to the WYO 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
61.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the WYO 15Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
62.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
63.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+33
60.3%
Luke Pawlak 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4961% → 64%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
60.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 9 yds to the WYO 32Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+4
62.8%
Jamari Ferrell run for 4 yds to the WYO 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.5%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Wyatt WielandSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
62.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the WYO 39Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
61.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 6 yds to the WYO 45Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
63.9%
Clayton Stewart punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the TOL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
53.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 80 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5655% → 52%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
54.5%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 6 yds to the WYO 33Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 4
OWN 33
0
55.8%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Will PelissierSimilar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+6
53.9%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 6 yds to the WYO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
55.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the WYO 41Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-1
55.8%
Harrison Waylee run for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 40Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
53.3%
Andrew Peasley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 9
OWN 40
+1
52.2%
Clayton Stewart punt for 34 yds , Adam Beale returns for 1 yd to the TOL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3650% → 49%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
50.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
51.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
50.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
51.3%
Emilio Duran punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Caleb Cooley at the WYO 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:5952% → 52%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
51.8%
Jamari Ferrell run for 8 yds to the WYO 21Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+4
52.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the WYO 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the WYO 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:2651% → 49%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
51.0%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the WYO 24 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cavon Butler) to the WYO 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
52.0%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to John Michael Gyllenborg for 7 yds to the WYO 46Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
53.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
50
0
53.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Harrison Waylee for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
50
-1
53.1%
Jamari Ferrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 49Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 11
OWN 49
-5
50.0%
Wyoming Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WYO 44Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+6
48.7%
Andrew Peasley run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 10
50
0
48.7%
Clayton Stewart punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:1352% → 52%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
48.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 30 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
45.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the WYO 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
44.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 2 yards to the WYO 43Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+3
44.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 3 yds to the WYO 40Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
44.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
47.8%
Emilio Duran punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WYO 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13SF
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:1948% → 40%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
48.0%
Jamari Ferrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 5Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+4
46.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 4 yds to the WYO 9Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 7
OWN 9
0
40.3%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Esean Carter for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETY Andrew Peasley fumbled, recovered by WYOSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FG
13 plays · 35 yds · 4:1464% → 72%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
50
0
35.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 10
50
+5
35.6%
Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds to the WYO 45Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-5
35.8%
Toledo Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 10
50
+16
36.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 16 yds to the WYO 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
33.5%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the WYO 33Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
33.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
34.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+16
36.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 16 yds to the WYO 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
32.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the WYO 17Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
31.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the WYO 15Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
32.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
28.5%
Luke Pawlak 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:1830% → 25%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
29.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the WYO 24Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+25
29.2%
Andrew Peasley run for 10 yds to the WYO 34 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Daniel Bolden) to the WYO 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
31.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
50
-1
31.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Harrison Waylee for a loss of 1 yard to the WYO 49Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-7
28.5%
Andrew Peasley sacked by Deshawn Holt for a loss of 7 yards to the WYO 42Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 17
OWN 42
0
25.3%
Clayton Stewart punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:3274% → 74%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+20
25.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 20 yds to the WYO 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
23.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
23.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Eric Holley IIISimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
23.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
26.1%
Emilio Duran punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WYO 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 17TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:4327% → 59%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
26.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 18 yds to the WYO 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
28.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 4 yds to the WYO 49Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+3
28.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Treyton Welch for 3 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+10
24.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Alex Brown for 10 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
24.8%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 19 yds to the TOL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
26.0%
Andrew Peasley run for 12 yds to the TOL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
25.8%
Evan Svoboda run for 6 yds to the TOL 1Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.6%
Evan Svoboda run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:1959% → 66%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
41.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the TOL 36Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
40.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+11
40.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 11 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
36.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the WYO 44Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
35.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+6
36.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds to the WYO 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
34.8%
Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the WYO 37Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
32.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 9
OPP 37
-3
30.7%
Tucker Gleason run for a loss of 3 yards to the WYO 40Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
33.7%
Emilio Duran punt for 34 yds, downed at the WYO 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19END OF GAME
17 plays · 87 yds · 3:5943% → 96%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+26
42.7%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Ayir Asante for 26 yds to the WYO 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
44.1%
Devin Boddie Jr. run for 1 yd to the WYO 33Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
43.5%
Evan Svoboda pass incomplete to Wyatt WielandSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+8
40.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 8 yds to the WYO 41Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+3
42.3%
Evan Svoboda run for 3 yds to the WYO 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
45.9%
Jayden Clemons run for a loss of 2 yards to the WYO 42Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+31
43.5%
Evan Svoboda pass complete to Wyatt Wieland for 16 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (RJ Delancy III) to the TOL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
55.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the TOL 24Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
52.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the TOL 23Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+13
47.0%
Evan Svoboda run for 13 yds to the TOL 10 Evan Svoboda fumbled, recovered by WYOSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
49.0%
Evan Svoboda run for 3 yds to the TOL 7Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
95.5%
John Hoyland 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:01
John Hoyland 24 yd FG GOOD
+52.9
TD · Q4 8:37
Evan Svoboda run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
+32.8
TD · Q2 5:19
Jacquez Stuart run for 80 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com