2023 · Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl · Dec 29, 2023 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreORST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:00 · Bryce McFerson punt for 59 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 12 yds to the ORST 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:47: Steve Angeli pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 8 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +2.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:27: Jadarian Price run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +8.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:43: Spencer Shrader 44 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +6.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:28: Steve Angeli pass complete to Jordan Faison for 13 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — ND win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
- SAFETY · Q4 10:55: Isaiah Newell run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY — ND win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 12:56ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snapGo for it34.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%average punt
- Q1 3:49ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it31.1%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.3%average punt
- Q2 14:14ND 4th & 1 at ORST 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.6%71% to convertField goal68.7%−0.964% to makePunt66.3%−3.3average punt
- Q2 12:02ND 4th & 18 at ORST 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snapGo for it67.7%−1.113% to convertField goalTheir call68.7%51% to makePunt68.1%−0.6average punt
- Q2 9:44ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snapGo for it29.4%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.7%average punt
- Q2 5:00ND 4th & 9 at ND 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snapGo for it69.6%−1.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.8%average punt
- Q2 3:29ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.1%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.0%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:43ND 4th & 6 at ORST 26, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snapGo for it85.5%−0.239% to convertField goalTheir call85.7%64% to makePunt80.4%−5.3average punt
- Q3 8:21ORST 4th & 18 at ORST 17, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it8.2%−3.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.3%average punt
- Q3 0:39ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 47, down 24Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.3%average punt
- Q4 11:24ND 4th & 2 at ORST 2, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.6%48% to convertField goal98.3%−0.294% to makePunt97.3%−1.3average punt
- Q4 6:31ORST 4th & 1 at ND 48, down 33Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ORST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q1 6:47ND Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.4%97% to makeGo for two67.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:27ND Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:28ND Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:08ND Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:02ORST Touchdown, down 27 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick0.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:45ND Touchdown, up 31 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartORSTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5634% → 34%
NDDrive 2TD11 plays · 96 yds · 5:4566% → 69%
ORSTDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5132% → 31%
Q1 6:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
68.0%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 4 yds to the ORST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
68.3%
Fenwick, Deshaun rush for no gain to the OREGONST36, PENALTY OREGONST holding (Terry II, Jermaine) 10 yards to the OREGONST26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
69.4%
AJ Winsor punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 4MISSED FG12 plays · 48 yds · 6:3369% → 69%
Q1 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+14
69.0%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 14 yds to the ND 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
70.0%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jayden Thomas for 26 yds to the ORST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 5
OPP 19
-13
71.2%
Steve Angeli sacked by Melvin Jordan IV for a loss of 13 yards to the ORST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1231% → 29%
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
69.8%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Silas Bolden for 12 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
69.0%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Javontae Jean-Baptiste for a loss of 4 yards to the ORST 40 Ben Gulbranson fumbled, recovered by ORST Grant Starck , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+7
70.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jermaine Terry II for 7 yds to the ORST 47Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
70.7%
AJ Winsor punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Faison at the ND 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 4:3071% → 71%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
71.0%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 7Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+12
70.9%
Steve Angeli run for 12 yds to the ND 19 Steve Angeli fumbled, recovered by ND Ashton CraigSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-7
72.4%
Steve Angeli sacked by Andrew Chatfield Jr. and John McCartan for a loss of 7 yards to the ND 16Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+12
71.0%
Bryce McFerson punt for 59 yds , Silas Bolden returns for 12 yds to the ORST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7DOWNS5 plays · 13 yds · 1:2729% → 28%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
71.5%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 14 yds to the ORST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 8TD7 plays · 44 yds · 2:4575% → 84%
ORSTDrive 9INT6 plays · 27 yds · 0:2118% → 17%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 5 yds to the ORST 30Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+32
82.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jesiah Irish for 32 yds to the ND 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
81.1%
Oregon State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Strand) to the ND 48Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 48
-14
82.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass intercepted Benjamin Morrison return for 14 yds to the ND 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 10FG11 plays · 49 yds · 5:0884% → 90%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.8%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jordan Faison for 4 yds to the ND 29Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
81.5%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Eli Raridon for 10 yds to the ND 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+33
83.1%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jordan Faison for 33 yds to the ORST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 1:0912% → 10%
NDDrive 12TD9 plays · 60 yds · 4:3093% → 98%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
93.1%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 16 yds to the ORST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+2
94.5%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Eli Raridon for 2 yds to the ORST 13Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
98.4%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jordan Faison for 13 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13DOWNS7 plays · 17 yds · 2:313% → 2%
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
97.4%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Riley Sharp for 17 yds to the ORST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
97.7%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 7 yds to the ORST 49Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-2
97.9%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Xavier Watts and Jack Kiser for a loss of 2 yards to the ORST 47Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 5
OWN 47
-5
97.9%
Ben Gulbranson sacked by Jordan Botelho for a loss of 5 yards to the ORST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14DOWNS8 plays · 41 yds · 4:0699% → 99%
Q4 13:30
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+24
99.1%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Matt Salerno for 20 yds to the ORST 8 for a 1ST down Oregon State Penalty, Personal Foul (4 Yards) to the ORST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15SF1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD4 plays · 72 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q4 9:08
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 13 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD8 plays · 71 yds · 2:540% → 0%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Gulbranson, Ben pass incomplete to Sharp, Riley, PENALTY NOTREDAME 12 men on the field 5 yards to the OREGONST34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 5
OWN 34
+9
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jimmy Valsin III for 9 yds to the ORST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Trent Walker for 8 yds to the ND 49Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jake Reichle for 1 yd to the ND 48Similar
Q4 6:31
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+15
99.9%
Jesiah Irish pass complete to Bryce Caufield for 15 yds to the ND 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
99.6%
Ben Gulbranson pass complete to Jimmy Valsin III for 33 yds for a TD (T. Voltin Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD7 plays · 40 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19END OF GAME7 plays · 20 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:27
Jadarian Price run for 1 yd for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+8.2
FG · Q3 9:43
Spencer Shrader 44 yd FG GOOD
+6.1
TD · Q3 3:28
Steve Angeli pass complete to Jordan Faison for 13 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+3.9