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WASH

Washington 13 at Michigan 34

MICH
2023 · CFP National Championship · Jan 8, 2024 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:21 · Jack McCallister punt for 47 yds, downed at the MICH 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense+4.3Pregame prior+10.6Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:23: Donovan Edwards 46 Yd Run (James Turner Kick) — MICH win probability +3.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:42: Jalen McMillan 3 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick) — WASH win probability +6.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:55: James Turner 38 Yd Field Goal — MICH win probability +3.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 8:58: Grady Gross 45 Yd Field Goal — WASH win probability +4.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:09: Blake Corum 12 Yd Run (James Turner Kick) — MICH win probability +6.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 3:56WASH 4th & 8 at MICH 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    31.2%−1.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:21WASH 4th & 3 at WASH 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:28MICH 4th & 4 at WASH 14, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.5%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    67.2%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:27WASH 4th & 7 at MICH 47, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:29MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:45WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:43MICH 4th & 2 at WASH 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%−1.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:42WASH 4th & 3 at MICH 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:55MICH 4th & 14 at WASH 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:58WASH 4th & 4 at MICH 28, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.5%−0.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:58MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:11WASH 4th & 15 at WASH 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−2.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:39MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:29WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:52MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:44WASH 4th & 9 at WASH 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:29WASH 4th & 13 at MICH 30, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:09WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:49WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 4WASH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:14MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:23MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:42WASH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:09MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:37MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 4:4164% → 66%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
64.1%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 20Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+8
64.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 8 yds to the MICH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
64.1%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
64.2%
Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
64.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 10 yds to the MICH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
64.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 14 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
64.4%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Ulumoo Ale for a loss of 4 yards to the WASH 41Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+41
65.8%
Donovan Edwards 41 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 5:3935% → 34%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
65.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
65.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 11 yds to the WASH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
65.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 3 yds to the WASH 45Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
65.5%
Will Nixon run for 2 yds to the WASH 47Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+11
65.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Tybo Rogers for 11 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
65.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Tybo RogersSimilar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+16
65.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 16 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
65.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Will NixonSimilar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
65.2%
Jalen McMillan run for 9 yds to the MICH 17Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+7
65.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the MICH 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
65.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MICH 9Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
65.4%
Ja'Lynn Polk run for 1 yd to the MICH 8Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
67.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
66.2%
Grady Gross 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:1266% → 70%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
65.9%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 17Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+37
65.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 37 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
66.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Semaj MorganSimilar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
70.3%
Donovan Edwards 46 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5029% → 28%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.6%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 5 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
70.6%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the WASH 30Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
71.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 2 yds to the WASH 32Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
71.7%
Jack McCallister punt for 47 yds, downed at the MICH 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5FG
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:3371% → 76%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+59
70.9%
Blake Corum run for 59 yds to the WASH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
71.9%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the WASH 17Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
72.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the WASH 14Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
73.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:28
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
76.4%
James Turner 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5126% → 24%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
74.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 10 yds to the WASH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
74.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
50
+1
73.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MICH 49Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
74.8%
Washington Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Parker Brailsford) to the WASH 46Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
75.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-5
75.9%
Washington Penalty, False Start (Julius Buelow) to the WASH 41Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+12
76.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 12 yds to the MICH 47Similar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
75.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4279% → 78%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
78.9%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 47Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
79.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
78.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
78.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2523% → 22%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-12
77.1%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Kenneth Grant for a loss of 12 yards to the WASH 8Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 22
OWN 8
0
78.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 22
OWN 8
+15
78.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 15 yds to the WASH 23Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
78.1%
Jack McCallister punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:5279% → 80%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
78.9%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+13
79.9%
Alex Orji run for 13 yds to the WASH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
80.4%
Alex Orji run for 2 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
80.5%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the WASH 44Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+6
80.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the WASH 38Similar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
80.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:2821% → 29%
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
79.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the WASH 45Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+10
78.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 10 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
78.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
78.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
78.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 11 yds to the MICH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
77.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
78.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+15
79.5%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to McMillan, Jalen, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Sainristil, Mike) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
76.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MICH 5Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
77.1%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the MICH 5Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
76.8%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 2 yds to the MICH 3Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.7%
Jalen McMillan 3 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:3474% → 72%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
74.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 19 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
74.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 7 yds to the WASH 49Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
74.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
73.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 3
OPP 49
-5
73.1%
Michigan Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the MICH 46Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
71.9%
Tommy Doman punt for 52 yds, downed at the WASH 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
74.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Will Johnson return for no gain to the WASH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:5075% → 77%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
75.2%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the WASH 29Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+13
75.5%
Blake Corum run for 13 yds to the WASH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
75.5%
Michigan Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the WASH 21Similar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+2
75.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the WASH 19Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 13
OPP 19
-5
75.4%
Michigan Penalty, False Start (LaDarius Henderson) to the WASH 24Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 18
OPP 24
0
74.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 18
OPP 24
+4
73.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 4 yds to the WASH 20Similar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+38
77.1%
James Turner 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 15FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:4722% → 28%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the WASH 29Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
77.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 8 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+29
77.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 14 yds to the MICH 49 for a 1ST down. Michigan Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Makari Paige) to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
75.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jack WestoverSimilar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
75.1%
Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+4
77.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 4 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
72.3%
Grady Gross 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5276% → 76%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
77.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
77.5%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 32Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
76.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Giles Jackson at the WASH 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:4126% → 24%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
73.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 5 yds to the WASH 31Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+11
72.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 11 yds to the WASH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
72.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
73.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-5
74.1%
Washington Penalty, False Start (Nate Kalepo) to the WASH 37Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
75.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
76.0%
Jack McCallister punt for 56 yds, downed at the MICH 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 4:2578% → 82%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
77.9%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 7Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+2
77.5%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 9Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 8
OWN 9
+22
76.7%
J.J. McCarthy run for 22 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
78.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 12 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
81.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-3
82.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 43Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+5
80.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 5 yds to the MICH 48Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
82.1%
Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds, downed at the WASH 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0622% → 18%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
77.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+12
78.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 12 yds to the WASH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
77.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the WASH 26Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
77.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 3 yds to the WASH 29Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
80.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Will NixonSimilar
Q4 13:29
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
82.0%
Jack McCallister punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3384% → 83%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
84.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
84.4%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 20Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+1
84.1%
J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd to the MICH 21Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
83.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 46 yds, Giles Jackson returns for no gain to the WASH 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0220% → 17%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
80.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
80.8%
Penix Jr., Michael pass complete to Odunze, Rome for 32 yards to the MICHIGAN35. PENALTY WASHINGTON holding (Rosengarten, Roger) 10 yards to the WASHINGTON23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+2
81.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 2 yds to the WASH 25Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 18
OWN 25
+9
83.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 9 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
83.0%
Jack McCallister punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jake Thaw at the MICH 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
5 plays · 71 yds · 2:0686% → 96%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+41
86.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 41 yds to the WASH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
88.7%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the WASH 27Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+12
88.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 12 yds to the WASH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
89.3%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the WASH 12Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
96.3%
Blake Corum 12 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 23INT
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:266% → 5%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 4 yds to the WASH 29Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+44
93.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 44 yds to the MICH 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
92.4%
Washington Penalty, False Start (Roger Rosengarten) to the MICH 32Similar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
92.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+2
93.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 2 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 13
OPP 30
0
93.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 13
OPP 30
-81
95.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Mike Sainristil return for 81 yds to the WASH 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3197% → 100%
Q4 4:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
97.3%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the WASH 1Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Blake Corum 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
99.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 7 yds to the WASH 24Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
99.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+2
99.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 2 yds to the WASH 26Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+5
99.4%
Will Nixon run for 5 yds to the WASH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Josh CuevasSimilar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ja'Lynn PolkSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Devin CulpSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.8%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the WASH 30Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 31Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 31
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:09
Blake Corum 12 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)
+6.9
TD · Q2 0:42
Jalen McMillan 3 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)
-6.1
FG · Q3 8:58
Grady Gross 45 Yd Field Goal
-4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com