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TEX

Texas 31 at Washington 37

WASH
2023 · CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl · Jan 1, 2024 · Caesars Superdome
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGEnd of GameFG+7WASH 89.4%Grady Gross 40 Yd Field GoalAWAY 21 - HOME 34 · Q4 14:51
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:51 · Grady Gross 40 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense+20.7Pregame prior−2.5Garbage-time factor+9.7Score differential+10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Time remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:27: Ja'Lynn Polk 29 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick) — WASH win probability +9.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:17: CJ Baxter 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +16.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:30: Jalen McMillan 19 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick) — WASH win probability +13.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:23: Adonai Mitchell 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick) — TEX win probability +22.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:09: Bert Auburn 25 Yd Field Goal — TEX win probability +15.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:00TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:25WASH 4th & 4 at WASH 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:34TEX 4th & 20 at TEX 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:45TEX 4th & 4 at TEX 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:59WASH 4th & 1 at TEX 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−1.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:55TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:05WASH 4th & 1 at WASH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.5%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:44WASH 4th & 5 at TEX 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−8.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:39TEX 4th & 5 at TEX 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:51WASH 4th & 10 at TEX 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:19WASH 4th & 10 at WASH 39, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:40WASH 4th & 10 at TEX 10, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:09TEX 4th & 4 at WASH 7, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.5%−1.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−2.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:45WASH 4th & 10 at TEX 44, up 6
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−<0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00TEX 4th & 11 at WASH 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−5.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−5.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:04WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:06TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:08WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:08TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:27WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:17TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:30WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:23TEX Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:5460% → 60%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
39.7%
Texas Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Jake Majors) to the TEX 29Similar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
39.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+16
39.9%
CJ Baxter run for 16 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
39.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
39.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
39.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q1 14:00
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
40.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 44 yds, downed at the WASH 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2TD
5 plays · 89 yds · 2:4940% → 43%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
40.1%
Penix Jr., Michael pass complete to McMillan, Jalen for 2 yards to the WASHINGTON13, PENALTY TEXAS offside 5 yards to the WASHINGTON16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 5
OWN 16
+3
40.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the WASH 19Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+2
40.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the WASH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+77
40.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 77 yds to the TEX 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.0%
Dillon Johnson 2 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3657% → 59%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.6%
Jaydon Blue run for 8 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+31
42.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 31 yds to the WASH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
43.2%
Quinn Ewers run for 12 yds to the WASH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
43.0%
Quinn Ewers run for 4 yds to the WASH 20Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+13
43.5%
CJ Baxter run for 13 yds to the WASH 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
43.8%
Jordan Whittington run for 2 yds to the WASH 5Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.9%
Jaydon Blue 5 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2842% → 42%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
42.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
42.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the WASH 31Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
42.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jack WestoverSimilar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
42.2%
Jack McCallister punt for 39 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 5 yds to the TEX 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:4158% → 56%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
42.4%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Bralen Trice for a loss of 6 yards to the TEX 29Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+2
43.0%
CJ Baxter run for 2 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 14
OWN 31
-3
43.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 7 yds to the TEX 38 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Whittington) to the TEX 28Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 17
OWN 28
-10
43.8%
Ewers, Quinn pass complete to Baxter, CJ for 20 yards to the TEXAS48, PENALTY TEXAS holding 10 yards to the TEXAS18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 27
OWN 18
+7
43.9%
CJ Baxter run for 7 yds to the TEX 25Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
44.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WASH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:1744% → 53%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
43.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the WASH 21Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+29
44.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
50
0
45.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Giles JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
50
+24
45.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 24 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
46.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 3 yds to the TEX 23Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+17
46.8%
Tybo Rogers run for 17 yds to the TEX 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
47.4%
Germie Bernard run for 4 yds to the TEX 2 for a 1ST down Texas Penalty, Personal Foul (Ryan Watts) to the TEX 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
47.5%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the TEX 1Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.2%
Dillon Johnson 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0049% → 47%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
51.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 23Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
51.5%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+8
52.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 8 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
52.7%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 47 yds , Germie Bernard returns for no gain to the WASH 22 Germie Bernard fumbled, recovered by TEX Morice Blackwell Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1251% → 58%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
49.1%
CJ Baxter run for 9 yds to the WASH 13Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-5
49.3%
Baxter, CJ rush for 8 yards to the WASHINGTON5, PENALTY TEXAS illegal shift 5 yards to the WASHINGTON18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+17
49.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 17 yds to the WASH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.2%
Byron Murphy II 1 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:3247% → 48%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
46.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 52 yds to the TEX 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
49.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the TEX 17Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
50.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the TEX 14Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
49.2%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the TEX 14Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 1
OPP 14
0
48.4%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the TEX 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:5655% → 53%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
44.6%
Jaydon Blue run for 12 yds to the TEX 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
44.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
44.7%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 25Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
46.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Germie Bernard at the WASH 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:5348% → 62%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
48.0%
Jalen McMillan pass incomplete to Michael Penix Jr.Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
47.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the WASH 30Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+3
47.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 3 yds to the WASH 33Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+5
46.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
49.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 13 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
51.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 5 yds to the TEX 44Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+15
51.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 15 yds to the TEX 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
52.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Devin CulpSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
62.2%
Ja'Lynn Polk 29 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 0:5841% → 61%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
58.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
59.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 11 yds to the TEX 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
57.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jaydon BlueSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
58.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 14 yds to the WASH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
55.6%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the WASH 44Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+7
56.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 7 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
56.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 4 yds to the WASH 33Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
54.8%
Quinn Ewers run for 5 yds to the WASH 28Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+25
56.1%
Quinn Ewers run for 21 yds to the WASH 7 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Asa Turner) to the WASH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.2%
CJ Baxter 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:0350% → 69%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
50.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 9 yds to the WASH 39Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
52.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 4 yds to the WASH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
52.6%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 12 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
53.8%
Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
53.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Tybo Rogers for no gain to the TEX 43Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+11
52.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 11 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
55.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 13 yds to the TEX 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
68.5%
Jalen McMillan 19 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.0%
CJ Baxter run for 8 yds to the TEX 33 CJ Baxter fumbled, forced by Bralen Trice, recovered by WASH Asa TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:4671% → 73%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
70.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 19 yds to the TEX 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
71.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the TEX 9Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
71.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the TEX 7Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-2
71.9%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 9Similar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
73.1%
Grady Gross 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:4127% → 25%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
73.2%
Jaydon Blue run for 16 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
72.5%
Jaydon Blue run for 5 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-5
71.7%
Texas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TEX 36Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
73.5%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 5 yds to the TEX 41Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
73.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
75.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 40 yds, downed at the WASH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:0977% → 89%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
76.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 11 yds to the WASH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
77.0%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 6 yds to the WASH 36Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
78.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 3 yds to the WASH 39Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
78.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the WASH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
79.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 1
50
+14
81.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 14 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
81.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Tybo RogersSimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+13
82.0%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 13 yds to the TEX 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
82.4%
Tybo Rogers run for no gain to the TEX 23Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
83.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 5 yds to the TEX 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-5
82.6%
Washington Penalty, False Start (Nate Kalepo) to the TEX 23Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
82.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jalen McMillanSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
89.4%
Grady Gross 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:4813% → 13%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
86.9%
Jaydon Blue run for 5 yds to the TEX 21Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+15
87.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 15 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
86.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 21 yds to the WASH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
87.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 19 yds Jaydon Blue fumbled, recovered by WASH Ralen GoforthSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2092% → 91%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
91.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Rome OdunzeSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
91.5%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Odunze, Rome, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Brooks, Terrance) 15 yards to the WASHINGTON39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
92.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
92.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jack WestoverSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
91.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Dillon Johnson for no gain to the WASH 39Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+8
91.0%
Jack McCallister punt for 41 yds , Xavier Worthy returns for 8 yds to the TEX 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:4711% → 34%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
89.0%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TEX 31Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-5
88.7%
Texas Penalty, False Start (DJ Campbell) to the TEX 26Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+15
90.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 15 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
89.4%
Quinn Ewers sacked by Bralen Trice for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 38Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+8
90.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 8 yds to the TEX 46Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+38
89.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 38 yds to the WASH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
88.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Malik Agbo for 6 yds to the WASH 10Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
89.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+7
89.9%
Jaydon Blue run for 7 yds to the WASH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
89.3%
Jaydon Blue run for 2 yds to the WASH 1Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.5%
Adonai Mitchell 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:3585% → 93%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 24Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
84.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 9 yds to the WASH 33Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
84.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 4 yds to the WASH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
87.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 14 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
89.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+32
90.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 32 yds to the TEX 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
91.1%
Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the TEX 8Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
93.1%
Tybo Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 10Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
93.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Will NixonSimilar
Q4 2:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
92.8%
Grady Gross 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 1:097% → 24%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
93.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 11 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
92.5%
Quinn Ewers run for 13 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
92.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 20 yds to the WASH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
91.0%
Quinn Ewers run for 8 yds to the WASH 23 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dominique Hampton) to the WASH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
90.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Gunnar Helm for 6 yds to the WASH 7Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 7
0
90.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
91.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
76.1%
Bert Auburn 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:2195% → 96%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
95.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
95.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the TEX 39Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
96.5%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the TEX 39Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 5
OPP 39
-5
96.0%
Washington Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TEX 44Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+13
95.9%
Jack McCallister punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jordan Whittington at the TEX 16 for a 1ST down Washington Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the TEX 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:4113% → 15%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
87.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
88.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+41
89.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 41 yds to the WASH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
78.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+16
79.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 16 yds to the WASH 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
77.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 13Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
78.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
82.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 13
0
85.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:23
Adonai Mitchell 1 Yd pass from Quinn Ewers (Bert Auburn Kick)
-22.8
TD · Q2 0:17
CJ Baxter 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)
-16.9
FG · Q4 1:09
Bert Auburn 25 Yd Field Goal
-15.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com