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ALA

Alabama 20 at Michigan 27

MICH
2023 · CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game · Jan 1, 2024 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:52 · James Burnip punt for 38 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 6 yds to the MICH 44 Semaj Morgan fumbled, recovered by ALA Quandarrius Robinson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 9Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+5.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score differential−0.2Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:49: Tyler Morris 38 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (PAT failed) — MICH win probability +7.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:30: Jase McClellan 3 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +28.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 4:41: Will Reichard 52 Yd Field Goal — ALA win probability +7.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:34: Roman Wilson 4 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (James Turner Kick) — MICH win probability +34.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Blake Corum 17 Yd Run (James Turner Kick) — MICH win probability +16.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:56MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:52ALA 4th & 23 at ALA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:59MICH 4th & 1 at ALA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.9%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:49ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:13MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:55ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:50MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:26ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:07ALA 4th & 10 at MICH 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:49ALA 4th & 22 at ALA 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−5.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:58MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 34, up 3
    Close callPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:41ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 27, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:44MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−2.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:32MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:30MICH 4th & 10 at ALA 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:41ALA 4th & 14 at MICH 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−2.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:19MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.4%−4.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:54ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:41ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:23MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:49MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:30ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:34MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5756% → 56%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
56.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to AJ BarnerSimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
56.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the ALA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:5644% → 43%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-13
56.3%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Braiden McGregor for a loss of 13 yards to the ALA 24Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 23
OWN 24
+11
56.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 11 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-11
56.5%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 11 yards to the ALA 24Similar
Q1 11:52
4TH & 23
OWN 24
+6
56.7%
James Burnip punt for 38 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 6 yds to the MICH 44 Semaj Morgan fumbled, recovered by ALA Quandarrius RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 2:0444% → 46%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
56.1%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+3
56.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
56.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
54.0%
Jase McClellan 34 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1255% → 58%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.6%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+21
54.5%
Blake Corum run for 21 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
54.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to AJ BarnerSimilar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
54.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 2 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+7
54.4%
J.J. McCarthy run for 7 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q1 6:59
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+4
54.1%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
54.8%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+19
54.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Kalel Mullings for 19 yds to the ALA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
54.6%
Semaj Morgan run for 6 yds to the ALA 8Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
58.2%
Blake Corum 8 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2843% → 43%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
56.6%
Roydell Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 24Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
56.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kendrick LawSimilar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+8
57.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 8 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q1 2:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
57.2%
James Burnip punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:2757% → 57%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
56.9%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 23Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
57.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 7 yds to the MICH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
57.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-9
58.4%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the MICH 44 Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MICH 29Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+2
57.1%
J.J. McCarthy run for 2 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+8
56.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
57.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the ALA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0344% → 42%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-8
56.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Michael Barrett for a loss of 8 yards to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 18
OWN 16
-5
56.4%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Kris Jenkins for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 11Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 23
OWN 11
+12
57.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 12 yds to the ALA 23Similar
Q2 11:55
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
57.6%
James Burnip punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5758% → 57%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
57.6%
Alex Orji run for 4 yds to the MICH 34Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
58.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
57.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
56.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the ALA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:1444% → 43%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
55.9%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-2
55.4%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 31Similar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+1
56.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
56.9%
James Burnip punt for 51 yds, downed at the MICH 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 4:3057% → 68%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
57.4%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the MICH 25Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+4
57.7%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
57.5%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+11
57.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 11 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
59.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
60.3%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the ALA 38Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
60.2%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the ALA 38Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+38
67.8%
Tyler Morris 38 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 3:2636% → 40%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+29
64.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 29 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
62.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
62.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 6 yds to the MICH 49Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+5
61.4%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
60.6%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 49Similar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
62.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kendrick LawSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+17
63.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 17 yds to the MICH 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
59.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 6 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+1
62.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 1 yd to the MICH 25Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 3
OPP 25
-7
63.6%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the MICH 32Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+50
60.1%
Will Reichard 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
61.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:5539% → 36%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
61.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 2 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+9
61.7%
Justice Haynes run for 9 yds to the ALA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
61.7%
Justice Haynes run for 11 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
60.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 8 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+9
58.6%
Jase McClellan run for 9 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-13
58.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the ALA 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ALA Jalen MilroeSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 23
OWN 40
-6
61.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ALA Jalen MilroeSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 29
OWN 34
+7
63.5%
Jase McClellan run for 7 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 22
OWN 41
+8
63.7%
James Burnip punt for 54 yds , Semaj Morgan returns for 8 yds to the MICH 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:4263% → 63%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
63.3%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 13Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+1
63.1%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 14Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+12
61.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the MICH 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
64.0%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-2
64.3%
Alex Orji sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 27Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+7
62.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Tyler Morris for 7 yds to the MICH 34Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
63.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the ALA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1337% → 35%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
62.7%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 24Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+3
62.9%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
63.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jam MillerSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
65.2%
James Burnip punt for 62 yds, downed at the MICH 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5364% → 61%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
63.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to AJ BarnerSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
63.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 13Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
62.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Semaj MorganSimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
61.4%
Tommy Doman punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:0740% → 68%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
60.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 9 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+8
59.6%
Justice Haynes run for 8 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
60.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 10 yds to the MICH 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
58.3%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the MICH 25Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+9
58.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 9 yds to the MICH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
58.1%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the MICH 16Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
58.1%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 21Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+18
60.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 18 yds to the MICH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
32.2%
Jase McClellan 3 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5142% → 39%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.8%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 26Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
41.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
39.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
38.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds , Antonio Kite returns for no gain to the ALA 33 Antonio Kite fumbled, recovered by ALA Caleb DownsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:3964% → 66%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
36.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 13 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
33.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the MICH 49 Jalen Milroe fumbled, forced by Quinten Johnson, recovered by MICH Josh WallaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20MISSED FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1146% → 40%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
45.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds to the ALA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
48.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for no gain to the ALA 31Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-7
48.3%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 38 Blake Corum fumbled, recovered by MICH J.J. McCarthySimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 17
OPP 38
+7
42.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 7 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
39.8%
James Turner 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21FG
10 plays · 35 yds · 5:4068% → 84%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
32.5%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q4 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+17
31.3%
Jase McClellan run for 17 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
29.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 2 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
27.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+11
26.0%
Jam Miller run for 11 yds to the MICH 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
23.1%
Alabama Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the MICH 35Similar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+2
23.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 2 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+4
22.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 4 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-5
23.1%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Braiden McGregor for a loss of 5 yards to the MICH 34Similar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+52
16.0%
Will Reichard 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0123% → 69%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.6%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
22.9%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
23.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+17
21.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 27 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST down Michigan Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
50
+16
26.3%
J.J. McCarthy run for 16 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+29
24.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 29 yds to the ALA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
27.7%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the ALA 4Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.6%
Roman Wilson 4 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:3047% → 48%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
50.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 5 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
52.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Malik BensonSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+6
54.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 6 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 4
OWN 43
-5
51.7%
James Burnip punt for 51 yds , Jake Thaw returns for a loss of 5 yards to the MICH 1 Jake Thaw fumbled, recovered by MICH Jake ThawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2958% → 57%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
57.8%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 2Similar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 9
OWN 2
-1
57.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
65.6%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the ALA 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+17
82.3%
Blake Corum 17 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0020% → 11%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
80.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 1 yd to the MICH 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+15
81.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 15 yds to the MICH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
80.1%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the MICH 9Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
80.1%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 5 yards to the MICH 14Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+11
88.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 11 yds to the MICH 3Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
88.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the MICH 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:34
Roman Wilson 4 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (James Turner Kick)
+34.7
TD · Q4 14:30
Jase McClellan 3 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)
-28.2
TD · OT 0:00
Blake Corum 17 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)
+16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com