Try the model
IOWA

Iowa 0 at Tennessee 35

TENN
2023 · Cheez-It Citrus Bowl · Jan 1, 2024 · Camping World Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:52 · Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds , Squirrel White returns for no gain to the TENN 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Home team on offense+13.3Pregame prior+8.7Score differential+4.5Garbage-time factor+1.9Blowout margin+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Nico Iamaleava run for 19 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +4.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:12: Nico Iamaleava run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +4.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:10: Leshon Williams run for 7 yds to the IOWA 13 — TENN win probability +2.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:00: Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the IOWA 2 — TENN win probability +2.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:43: Nico Iamaleava run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +4.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:55IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:11TENN 4th & 17 at TENN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:38TENN 4th & 8 at IOWA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:07IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:21IOWA 4th & 24 at IOWA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−2.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:48TENN 4th & 1 at IOWA 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−1.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:03IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:53TENN 4th & 12 at TENN 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:43IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 41, down 14
    Close callPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:21TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:30TENN 4th & 11 at IOWA 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    83.3%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:52IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:28TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 46, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:58IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:50TENN 4th & 7 at IOWA 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:39IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:40IOWA 4th & 15 at TENN 42, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:04IOWA 4th & 6 at TENN 22, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:17IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 34, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:10TENN 4th & 1 at IOWA 3, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 14:54TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:12TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:43TENN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:15TENN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:48TENN Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3530% → 30%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 4 yds to the IOWA 29Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
69.9%
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the IOWA 29Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-7
69.9%
Deacon Hill sacked by Elijah Herring for a loss of 7 yards to the IOWA 22Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
69.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 62 yds, downed at the TENN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:2670% → 69%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
69.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Jacob Warren for 9 yds to the TENN 25Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+3
69.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
69.7%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ollie Lane) to the TENN 18Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 20
OWN 18
-5
69.6%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 13Similar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 25
OWN 13
+6
69.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the TENN 19Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 19
OWN 19
+9
69.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 9 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-7
69.1%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 21Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 17
OWN 21
0
69.0%
Jackson Ross punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3INT
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:4531% → 33%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
68.7%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 11 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
68.4%
Leshon Williams run for 1 yd to the TENN 35Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+6
68.2%
Leshon Williams run for 6 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
68.3%
Nico Ragaini run for 5 yds to the TENN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
67.7%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Zach OrtwerthSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
67.7%
Kaleb Johnson run for 6 yds to the TENN 18Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+14
67.8%
Terrell Washington Jr. run for 14 yds to the TENN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
67.3%
Kamari Moulton run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 5Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
67.0%
Leshon Williams run for 1 yd to the TENN 4Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
67.3%
Deacon Hill pass intercepted, touchback. Andre Turrentine return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:1268% → 68%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
68.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Dylan SampsonSimilar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
68.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 12 yds to the TENN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
68.3%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
50
+2
69.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 48Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
69.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
68.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Dylan SampsonSimilar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 8
OPP 48
+39
68.0%
Jackson Ross punt for 39 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1332% → 32%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
68.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for 6 yds to the IOWA 14Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+1
67.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 15Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
67.8%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Kaleb BrownSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 3
OWN 15
-3
68.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 55 yds , Dee Williams returns for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:0968% → 74%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
68.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+19
67.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 19 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
69.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 15 yds to the IOWA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
69.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 6 yds to the IOWA 33Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+15
69.5%
Nico Iamaleava run for 15 yds to the IOWA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
69.5%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 19Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+19
73.5%
Nico Iamaleava run for 19 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 1:3328% → 27%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
71.6%
Iowa Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the IOWA 30Similar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-9
72.0%
Deacon Hill sacked by Tyre West and Elijah Simmons for a loss of 9 yards to the IOWA 21Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 24
OWN 21
0
72.3%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Leshon Williams for no gain to the IOWA 21Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 24
OWN 21
0
72.8%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Kaleb BrownSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 24
OWN 21
0
73.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:5573% → 80%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
72.8%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 12 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
73.7%
Cameron Seldon run for 13 yds to the IOWA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
74.0%
Nico Iamaleava run for 1 yd to the IOWA 42Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+8
74.1%
Cameron Seldon run for 8 yds to the IOWA 34Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
73.8%
Cameron Seldon run for no gain to the IOWA 34Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+3
73.1%
Cameron Seldon run for 3 yds to the IOWA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
74.3%
Iowa Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the IOWA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
74.3%
Cameron Seldon run for 5 yds to the IOWA 11Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
74.5%
Nico Iamaleava run for 4 yds to the IOWA 7Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
74.1%
Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the IOWA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
74.8%
Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the IOWA 3Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.7%
Nico Iamaleava run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:4222% → 21%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
78.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the IOWA 31Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
78.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 15 yds to the IOWA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.0%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Kaleb JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
78.3%
Deacon Hill run for 1 yd to the IOWA 47Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
78.4%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
79.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0879% → 79%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.2%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kaleb WebbSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
79.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 13 yds to the TENN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
79.5%
Nico Iamaleava run for 1 yd to the TENN 34Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+4
79.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-7
80.0%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Jay Higgins for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 31Similar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 12
OWN 31
0
78.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 48 yds, downed at the IOWA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4220% → 19%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
80.1%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 14 yds to the IOWA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
79.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 5 yds to the IOWA 40Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
79.4%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 41Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
80.3%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-2
80.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 yds , Dee Williams returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:0982% → 81%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
81.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the TENN 16Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+27
81.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 27 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
83.2%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Aaron Graves for a loss of 5 yards to the TENN 38Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
82.7%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+7
82.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the TENN 45Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
81.3%
Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds , Kaden Wetjen returns for no gain to the IOWA 45 Iowa Penalty, Offensive Holding (6 Yards) to the IOWA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
83.4%
Leshon Williams run for 7 yds to the IOWA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:2385% → 85%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
85.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
85.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the TENN 37Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+18
85.5%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 18 yds to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
86.1%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
86.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 43Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-3
85.9%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 46Similar
Q3 12:30
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
84.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2814% → 14%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
85.6%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the IOWA 8Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 8
0
86.1%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+2
86.3%
Jaziun Patterson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 10Similar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 6
OWN 10
0
86.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds , Squirrel White returns for no gain to the TENN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1587% → 87%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
86.9%
Cameron Seldon run for 3 yds to the TENN 40Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
87.4%
Cameron Seldon run for 4 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
87.4%
Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+29
87.0%
Jackson Ross punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 10 Tennessee Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the IOWA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1414% → 13%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
86.1%
Deacon Hill sacked by Tyre West for a loss of 10 yards to the IOWA 15Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+14
86.6%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 14 yds to the IOWA 29Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.2%
Deacon Hill pass incomplete to Addison OstrengaSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
87.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:5688% → 90%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
88.4%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 7 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+2
89.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
88.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
89.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 8 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
89.9%
Nico Iamaleava run for 5 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
90.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 48Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-1
90.4%
Nico Iamaleava sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 49Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+1
90.1%
Nico Iamaleava run for 1 yd to the IOWA 48 Nico Iamaleava fumbled, recovered by TENN Nico IamaleavaSimilar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
90.1%
Jackson Ross punt for 44 yds, downed at the IOWA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:5510% → 10%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
89.6%
Kamari Moulton run for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 3Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 3
+4
89.9%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Steven Stilianos for 4 yds to the IOWA 7Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 7
-5
90.3%
Deacon Hill sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the IOWA 2 Deacon Hill fumbled, forced by James Pearce Jr., recovered by TENN Dominic Bailey , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20TD
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1793% → 98%
Q3 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.1%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the IOWA 2Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.9%
Nico Iamaleava run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21INT TD
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:163% → 0%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.5%
Deacon Hill run for 10 yds to the IOWA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.5%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
97.6%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 9 yds to the IOWA 44Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
97.9%
Deacon Hill run for no gain to the IOWA 44Similar
Q4 14:39
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
98.1%
Jaziun Patterson run for 5 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-52
99.8%
Deacon Hill pass intercepted James Pearce Jr. return for 52 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22DOWNS
15 plays · 53 yds · 6:020% → 0%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Marco Lainez run for 10 yds to the IOWA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Marco Lainez pass incomplete to Addison OstrengaSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
99.8%
Marco Lainez run for 16 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Marco Lainez pass incomplete to Kamari MoultonSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
99.8%
Marco Lainez run for 12 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
99.8%
Marco Lainez pass complete to Nico Ragaini for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 38Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 11
OPP 38
-6
99.9%
Marco Lainez sacked by Roman Harrison and Bryson Eason for a loss of 6 yards to the TENN 44Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Terrell Washington Jr. run for 2 yds to the TENN 42Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 15
OPP 42
+16
99.9%
Marco Lainez run for 16 yds to the TENN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.9%
Marco Lainez pass incomplete to Addison OstrengaSimilar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.9%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the TENN 25Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Marco Lainez run for 3 yds to the TENN 22Similar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 6
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Marco Lainez pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Squirrel White for 8 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Cameron Seldon run for 5 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 6 yds to the TENN 41Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Cameron Seldon run for 6 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+31
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 31 yds to the IOWA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 18Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to McCallan Castles for 18 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Marco Lainez pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 5 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
100.0%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the IOWA 31Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
100.0%
Kaleb Brown run for 3 yds to the IOWA 34Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Marco Lainez pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
100.0%
Gaston Moore run for 4 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
100.0%
Khalifa Keith run for 5 yds to the IOWA 25Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+1
100.0%
Khalifa Keith run for 1 yd to the IOWA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
100.0%
Iowa Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the IOWA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
100.0%
Khalifa Keith run for 3 yds to the IOWA 9Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
100.0%
Gaston Moore run for 3 yds to the IOWA 6Similar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
100.0%
Gaston Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+3
100.0%
Iowa Penalty, Defensive Offside (3 Yards) to the IOWA 3Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+1
100.0%
Khalifa Keith run for 1 yd to the IOWA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:12
Nico Iamaleava run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q3 1:43
Nico Iamaleava run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q2 14:54
Nico Iamaleava run for 19 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com