Try the model
UGA

Georgia 63 at Florida State 3

FSU
2023 · Capital One Orange Bowl · Dec 30, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:48 · Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dillon Bell
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense−0.5Pregame prior−37.6Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:05: Kendall Milton run for 15 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +1.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:57: Kendall Milton run for 5 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +2.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 12:34: Ryan Fitzgerald 22 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:38: Daijun Edwards run for 15 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +4.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 10:18: Ladd McConkey run for 27 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +4.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:29FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:48UGA 4th & 3 at FSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:53FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:34FSU 4th & 4 at UGA 4, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.8%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:17FSU 4th & 1 at UGA 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−1.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:59FSU 4th & 6 at UGA 38, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:01FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 48, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:06FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 31, down 60
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:02UGA 4th & 4 at UGA 41, up 60
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:37FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 20, down 60
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 4:05UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:57UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:38UGA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:18UGA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:39UGA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:24UGA Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:23UGA Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:30UGA Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:10UGA Touchdown, up 59 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0911% → 12%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
10.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the FSU 14Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+7
11.1%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 7 yds to the FSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
11.2%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 3 yds to the FSU 24Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+1
11.4%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 1 yd to the FSU 25Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
11.7%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
11.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 55 yds, downed at the UGA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:3588% → 87%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
11.8%
Kendall Milton run for 8 yds to the UGA 28Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+14
11.9%
Kendall Milton run for 14 yds to the UGA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
12.2%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Arian SmithSimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+17
12.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 17 yds to the FSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
12.5%
Carson Beck sacked by Patrick Payton for a loss of 10 yards to the UGA 49 Carson Beck fumbled, forced by Patrick Payton, recovered by UGA Lawson Luckie , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 20
OWN 49
-2
12.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 47Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 22
OWN 47
+19
13.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 19 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 3
OPP 34
0
13.3%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dillon BellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4914% → 14%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
13.6%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the FSU 35Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+1
13.8%
Brock Glenn run for 1 yd to the FSU 36Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
14.1%
Caziah Holmes run for no gain to the FSU 36Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 8
OWN 36
+17
14.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 50 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 17 yds to the UGA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:3386% → 87%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
14.4%
Kendall Milton run for 5 yds to the UGA 36Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
14.5%
Kendall Milton run for 1 yd to the UGA 37Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+15
14.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 15 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
14.6%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Marcus Rosemy-JacksaintSimilar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+16
14.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 16 yds to the FSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
14.7%
Daijun Edwards run for 17 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
12.8%
Kendall Milton run for 15 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5514% → 14%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.6%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 5 yds to the FSU 30Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
13.9%
Deuce Spann pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 7 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
14.0%
Deuce Spann run for 1 yd to the FSU 38Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
14.2%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
14.0%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
13.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, downed at the UGA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 1:4786% → 89%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
14.0%
Daijun Edwards run for 3 yds to the UGA 21Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+9
14.2%
Daijun Edwards run for 9 yds to the UGA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
14.0%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Arian SmithSimilar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+22
14.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 22 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+43
13.6%
Kendall Milton run for 43 yds to the FSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.3%
Kendall Milton run for 5 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:0912% → 14%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
12.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 17 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+55
12.6%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 55 yds to the UGA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
12.7%
Brock Glenn run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 4Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
12.8%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Ja'Khi DouglasSimilar
Q2 12:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
12.6%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
14.1%
Ryan Fitzgerald 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4387% → 92%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
13.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 14 yds to the UGA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
13.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 31 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
13.0%
Daijun Edwards run for 15 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
8.2%
Daijun Edwards run for 15 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 9TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
4.4%
Ladd McConkey run for 27 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:565% → 2%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+23
4.5%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 23 yds to the FSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
4.0%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 8 yds to the UGA 45Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-1
4.0%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 46Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
3.8%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 2 yds to the UGA 44Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
2.3%
Darion Williamson run for 2 yds to the UGA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
2.2%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Kyle MorlockSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
2.1%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 4 yds to the UGA 38Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
1.8%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
1.8%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:1296% → 97%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
3.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 3 yds to the UGA 41Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
3.5%
Kendall Milton run for 10 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
3.5%
Beck, Carson pass incomplete to Smith, Arian, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Jones, Quindarrius) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
3.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 19 yds to the FSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
3.2%
Kendall Milton run for 3 yds to the FSU 12Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
2.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 12 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FUMBLE
13 plays · 36 yds · 2:252% → 2%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.3%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 4 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
2.0%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 9 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
2.2%
Caziah Holmes run for 6 yds to the FSU 44Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
1.9%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
1.7%
Brock Glenn run for 5 yds to the FSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
2.1%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Hykeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
1.5%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+26
1.4%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Darion Williamson for 26 yds to the UGA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
1.6%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Hykeem WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
1.5%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Deuce SpannSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+10
1.5%
Brock Glenn sacked by Mykel Williams for a loss of 14 yards to the UGA 39 Brock Glenn fumbled, forced by Mykel Williams, recovered by UGA Mykel Williams , return for 10 yds to the UGA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 0:2098% → 98%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
1.9%
Carson Beck pass incomplete to Dominic LovettSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+35
1.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 35 yds to the FSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
1.7%
Beck, Carson pass incomplete to Evans III, Anthony, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Vance Jr., Greedy) 14 yards to the FLORIDAST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:081% → 1%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.2%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
1.1%
Caziah Holmes run for 10 yds to the FSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-26
1.2%
Brock Glenn pass intercepted by Malaki Starks, return for 26 yds to the FSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2498% → 99%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
1.8%
Gunner Stockton run for 7 yds to the UGA 32Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
1.7%
Daijun Edwards run for 1 yd to the UGA 33Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
1.7%
Gunner Stockton run for 6 yds to the UGA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
1.5%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 28 yds to the FSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
1.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Dillon Bell for 2 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+17
1.3%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 17 yds to the FSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
1.2%
Cash Jones run for 7 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+2
1.1%
Cash Jones run for 2 yds to the FSU 5Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+3
1.1%
Cash Jones run for 3 yds to the FSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.1%
Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:131% → 1%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the FSU 28Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
0.8%
Glenn, Brock pass sacked for loss of 6 yards to the FLORIDAST22 (Chambliss, Chaz), PENALTY GEORGIA face mask (Chambliss, Chaz) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
0.7%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+1
0.6%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the FSU 48Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
0.6%
Brock Glenn pass incomplete to Hykeem WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
0.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD
10 plays · 90 yds · 4:2599% → 99%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
1.1%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Dillon BellSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+14
1.1%
Roderick Robinson II run for 14 yds to the UGA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
0.9%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Anthony Evans IIISimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
0.9%
Roderick Robinson II run for 11 yds to the UGA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+31
0.9%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Pearce Spurlin III for 31 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
0.8%
Roderick Robinson II run for 3 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
0.7%
Gunner Stockton run for 5 yds to the FSU 26Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+9
0.7%
Roderick Robinson II run for 9 yds to the FSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
0.6%
Gunner Stockton run for 13 yds to the FSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.6%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 4 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:310% → 0%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
0.3%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 6 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-15
0.3%
Brock Glenn pass intercepted Daylen Everette return for no gain to the UGA 31 Georgia Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Patrick Taylor) to the UGA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:5999% → 100%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
0.6%
Cash Jones run for 9 yds to the UGA 25Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Andrew Paul run for no gain to the UGA 25Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+14
0.6%
Andrew Paul run for 14 yds to the UGA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+20
0.5%
Roderick Robinson II run for 20 yds to the FSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
0.4%
Gunner Stockton run for 14 yds to the FSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
0.4%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Anthony Evans IIISimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+11
0.4%
Cash Jones run for 11 yds to the FSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
0.4%
Gunner Stockton run for 2 yds to the FSU 14Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
0.4%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Anthony Evans III for 14 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-15
0.5%
Georgia Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Anthony Evans III) to the UGA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.2%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 4 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
0.2%
Darion Williamson run for a loss of 10 yards to the FSU 19 Darion Williamson fumbled, forced by Gabe Harris, recovered by FSU Robert Scott Jr.Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+12
0.2%
Brock Glenn pass complete to Darion Williamson for 12 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q4 10:06
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Anthony Evans III at the UGA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
0.4%
Roderick Robinson II run for 9 yds to the UGA 31Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
0.3%
Roderick Robinson II run for 4 yds to the UGA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
0.3%
Gunner Stockton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 34Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+7
0.3%
Andrew Paul run for 7 yds to the UGA 41Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
0.3%
Gunner Stockton pass incomplete to Anthony Evans IIISimilar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
0.3%
Brett Thorson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ja'Khi Douglas at the FSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
0.1%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 3 yds to the FSU 14Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
0.1%
Georgia Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FSU 19Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+1
0.1%
Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 1 yd to the FSU 20Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Deuce Spann run for no gain to the FSU 20Similar
Q4 4:37
4TH & 1
OWN 20
+4
0.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 4 yds to the UGA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:02100% → 100%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
0.2%
Sevaughn Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 36Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+6
0.2%
Sevaughn Clark run for 6 yds to the UGA 42Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+14
0.2%
Jackson Muschamp run for 14 yds to the FSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
0.2%
Joseph Daniels run for 3 yds to the FSU 41Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
0.2%
Joseph Daniels run for 2 yds to the FSU 39Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+17
0.2%
Collin Drake pass complete to Luke Bennett for 2 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the FSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 24Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-2
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:38
Daijun Edwards run for 15 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-4.8
TD · Q2 10:18
Ladd McConkey run for 27 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-4.2
TD · Q2 14:57
Kendall Milton run for 5 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com